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Edited on Thu Apr-10-08 08:29 PM by acrosstheuniverse
Just my opinion. Don't take it too seriously guys. ;)
I see Hillary winning pretty big in Pennsylvania. She will take it all the way to the convention in the final week of August and rely on the Florida lawsuit against the DNC to get a ruling in her favor to seat all of the Florida delegates. Claiming momentum after winning PENN, Indiana, PR, West Virginia, Kentucky, and maybe others she will head a very big fight for the super-delegates going into the convention and claim it to be a case where ALL the VOTES should count thus making her campaign look like the one that is not into cheating the electorate by disenfranchising voters like the Obama camp is. I personally don't believe in this hogwash that will come from her side but no doubt many angry supporters of her will and that will put a lot of pressure on many super-delegates to come to her side (especially the ones from the big states). It will be an ugly and brutal fight with allegations flying back and forth from both camps and the Republicans will be very giddy as they watch such utter destruction befall the Democratic Party. I predict John Mccain will get a major boost of momentum around the same weeks of the Conventions when he picks his running mate. Whoever that may be.
Lots of people, including the news media make it out that DNC chairman Howard Dead and other heavyweights in the party will be able to force the super-delegates to make a decision and most likely choosing Obama due to his pledged delegate lead. That is NOT the case. Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and even Al Gore have absolutely no say in the matter of coercing these people into all uniting behind one candidate. Especially when it is a race so close such as this. They will be powerless as the entire Party falls into discord and shambles with vast hatred coming from both sides.
By the time the candidate is nominated it will have been such a brutal fight that vast supporters of the other candidate will have a very hard time coalescing around the nominee especially within such a short time period between the conventions and the general election. Independents and moderate Republicans will have seen how much stained and weaker the nominee is due to the battle basically tearing the "perceptions" or "images" of both of these candidates apart.
We know that had Hillary Clinton simply dropped out of the race before Texas and Ohio had voted it would have already been a pretty close race between Obama and Mccain. The nation is very very divided and has been for decades. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election by an easy margin partly because Ross Perot was in the race and had he not attracted votes from George HW it would have been much closer. Ditto for the 1996 election where Dole was behind by 6 percent in the popular vote and that was the exact percent Perot came up with that year.
My point is due to the unfortunate decision for Hillary Clinton to continue to wage a scorched earth campaign against Barack Obama despite his much better chances at winning against Mccain, we are going to see the Democrats fail miserably at attempting to win all three branches of the government in a year that can only be described as absolutely the worst for the GOP with Bush's approval rating at 28% the endless Iraqi quagmire, the economy possibly headed into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Consumer confidence, general morale, and confidence in the government near all-time lows.
Only somebody with an ego like Hillary can cause the oldest party of the most powerful nation on earth to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a time and opportunity that would have given the party the biggest electoral landslide since 1964. IF ONLY she would have dropped out, endorsed Obama, and had the remaining primaries confirm the endorsement from coast to coast.
He would have been a much stronger candidate in the Fall with all of these states behind him.
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