HilFANS, quit the spinning and pipe dreams. She can't beat the delegate math.

[RBInMaine]

Hillary was supposed the be the "inevitable" candidate. For 16 years the Clintons have built the machinary that SHOULD have allowed them to walk off with the nomination by Feb. 5th at the latest. But guess what, along comes Obama, he puts together a campaign that shocks the crap out of them, and here they are fighting for their political lives. Now, after having gone scorched earth and kitchen sink, having tried every nasty R-like trick in their SLICK book, they are still baffled by this guy who came out of nowhere and last month raised DOUBLE the money they did. Now they are moving the goalposts again and trying to SPIN SPIN SPIN Pennsylvania with their BS talk about being outspent, etc. but still winning (just like in OH). In close primaries like these, it is largely about demographics in many areas. The Clintons have a long standing demographic and machine advantage in PA. The popular PA Gov. is in their corner as is the Philly mayor, and MANY other PA insiders. They are SUPPOSED to win there, and in several of the remaining states for the same reason. Obama is likewise favored in NC, MT, and OR. That Obama has been able to crack into the
overwhelmingly-Clinton states as much as he has is the REAL news. So go ahead HillFANS, spin spin spin. Move the goalposts over and over and over again. But she CAN'T win the delegate math in the end. So just keep on a-dreamin'. Also, just to remind you, MUCH more than half the country can't stand Hillary, and her winning our nomination will pack the currently-demoralized R's into their field offices by the million. The only thing Republicans HATE more than a tax increase is HILLARY CLINTON, and they will make it their purpose in life to beat her in November. They may not like Obama's politics, but they HATE Hillary Clinton. It's PERSONAL to them. She is the most polarizing candidate we could imagine, and we would be FOOLS to nominate her.

[Evergreen Emerald]

1. umm Neither can Obama

[PseudoIntellect]

8. I guess, by that logic, that neither candidate has a chance of winning the nomination.

Makes perfect sense.

An understanding of some simple percentages and a little common sense shows that Obama has an overwhelming chance of being the nominee. He CAN overcome the delegate math, and he probably will. SD trends are obvious enough for anyone to see.

[barb162]

60. Your logic is incorrec t. Either can win. HRC's got the momentum,

the big states, etc. Obama should hang it up already.

[mckeown1128]

65. Your logic is incorrect.

1. Hillay can't win barring 70%+ of the SD's overturn the primary results.

2. She doesn't have momentum.

3. She doesn't have the big states. They split the big states.

Obama: Texas, Illinois, Virginia

Hillary: California, New York, New Jersey, Ohio

Voter's told not going to count states: Florida, Michigan

4. Even if Hillary had one the "big states" that has nothing to do with the nomination process. SD's aren't stupid. They know that a handfull of big states isn't worth more than a truckload of small and medium states.

[barb162]

73. CA, NY, etc. are the BIGGEST states. PA...she'll win that

She certainly does have the big states. The momentum starts with PA and people getting fed up with Obama. With all that ad money he's spending, she'll still win PA.

[PseudoIntellect]

75. Okay.

The 10 biggest states that had elections so far: CA,TX,NY,IL,OH,GA,NJ,VA,WA,MA

Obama beats HRC in: TX,IL,GA,VA,WA (blowouts in 4 of 5)

HRC beats BHO in: CA,NY,OH,NJ,MA (close in 4 of 5)

[mckeown1128]

94. Obama will win CA and NY in the fall.

(Don't bother posting that BS debunked Marist poll) And again it doesn't matter that CA and NY are the "BIGGEST" states. She won them by lower double digits and Obama has two dozen medium and small states by LARGE margins to counter NY and CA. If the DNC wanted to base the whole primary on who won CA and NY they would limit the contest to those two states.


And that momentum that you said starts in PA will end two weeks later in North Carolina. Besides her pitiful 10 point win in PA will be well below what she needs in order to even get close to catching up.

Side note: Don't insult the voters of PA. They aren't going to base their vote for the most important job in government based on being sick of campaign commercials. They will vote like everyone based on candidate postions and ability to get things done. THE commericials are only their to introduce the candidate to the voters. PA is considered an advertiser friendly state anyway.

[Voltaire]

98. HA HA HA HA....Yeah...he won big states too, but her's are BIGGER

Hillary supporters never not make me laugh.

[PseudoIntellect]

76. Who's got the momentum?

HRC is down by more delegates than ever before. I wouldn't call that momentum.

Then look at the trickling superdelegate trends. From 90 up to 70 up, 60, 50, 40, 30, 26.......

[Window]

93. Hillary has the momentum for a free-fall.

[TheWraith]

16. You mean the guy who's winning?

Keep drinking that Kool Aide. It's going to taste mighty bitter soon, since your own superdelegates are waffling faster than IHOP.

[barb162]

57. Leading right at this second doesn't mean winning the nomination

a few months from now.

[PseudoIntellect]

78. just as a baseball team up 6 runs in the 8th inning doesn't necessarily win.

It's just probable.

[jillan]

19. Bingo!

As my sig line says - First candidate that gets to 2024 delegates wins....

and neither of them are there yet.

[TheWraith]

24. The fact that the convention hasn't happened yet doesn't mean there isn't a winner.

Explain to me how Hillary can still win. Use delegate numbers.

[jillan]

26. Neither of them can get to 2024 delegates at this point.

[TheWraith]

31. Explain how Hillary gets to 2025 without overturning the election results. nt

[jillan]

37. I can't explain how she is going to get there, just like I can't explain how Obama is going to get

there.

Either something happens before the convention, or we have to wait until the convention...

BUT until one of them has 2024 del. they are not our nominee. Period.

[TheWraith]

99. She doesn't get the magic number unless the superdelegates overturn the election.

She could win every remaining state by 15 points and STILL lose the delegate count. It's 7 to 3 in the bottom of the 9th, and she's insisting that the game is tied. All the objective analysts agree that there's no likely path to the nomination for her.

[Ilithiad]

63. Superdelagates

Clinton will get the nomination through superdelagates....and the backlash from that will divide the democratic party unless Obama accepts a Vp proposal from Hillary.

[Gore1FL]

33. Actually, he can by the same math

In fact he is a shoe in at this point.

[Ilithiad]

71. You people are so sure...

that Obama will be the nominee...have you ever heard of "It aint over until its over...Neither candidate can win the nomination outright with pledged delagates so it will be upto the superdelagates...and my gut tells me it will be Hillary clinton...Yeah popular vote be damned but you know what if the DNC decides it should be Hillary it is because they will view Obama as not ready...Why do you think so many of them have not pledged their support yet if Obama is a shoe in? They know the math with delagates. They know neither Obama or Hillary can win with pledged delagates I think there will be a compromise that Hillary will get the Nominee as long as Obama is running mate.

[Gore1FL]

101. If an outrageous majority of them think that way

then it could happen. But I have yet to see a legitimate argument that would compel 80-90% of the remaining super delegates to come to that conclusion, or feel that Hillary is somehow vastly more ready, when her campaign has shown firmly otherwise.

[Hepburn]

2. You know what the problem is, right?

They simply do not care. It is a finish to the death...and in this case they are killing off the chances of Obama beating McCain.

Just disgusting....

[RBInMaine]

5. No, Obama WILL win the NOM and the GE ! Folks don't want Bush-III.

[Hepburn]

6. Well, I used to think so.....

...until her dirty campaigning and lies.

Apparently, she does not care about having McCain win...after all, she endorsed him.

[Skip Intro]

10. . Good Lord. Another one.

...:rofl:

[Ilithiad]

42. Just my thoughts...

Obama will win the nomination...suppose he does. Don't you think that countries like Iran and N. Korea are just salivating for such a scenario? This guy who is willing to sit down with a leader of a country like Iran and talk about what? If a president like bush who is anti-terror cannot presuade Iran to disarm is nuclear program what chance does Obama have? We should not...I mean should NOT sit down and talk with our enemies on a level playing field. That gives their own dehumanizing regiemes to much legitimacy. Obama does not have the experience to force IRan in to nuclear disarmament. I mean he wants to talk to a country whos leader has denied the Holocaust ever happened. Wake up people. Obama would be good for America. That I will not deny, but not now. In 8 years he could not be beat by any GOP candidate. Hillary...I support Hillary Clinton because she has insider experience on how government works as First Lady and as senator of new york, but her misspoken words have hurt her chances as nominee.
This is the scenario that should play out: Hillary or Obama as nominee and hillary or obama as running mate. Hillary is wise enough to realize she would offer the opportunity to a man like Obama who is a great speaker no doubt and would almost certainly ensure a democratic victory for the white house. If obama wins the nominination florida and michigan will vote republican because they will feel Hillary was cheated the nomination because their delagates wont be seated. It does not matter if they broke the DNC rules or not, but this situation could be avoided if he chose hillary as his running mate. If Hillary should win which can only happen by superdelagates overturning the popular vote and choosing her, which would anger those who supported Obama and Hillary would not win the GE because of those disgruntled supporters of Obama. She could prevent that by choosing him as her running mate. Florida and Michigan whose delagates wont be seated and the DNC will decided the GE. Guarantee it.

[dailykoff]

44. The nuclear threat posed by Iran is less than zero.

And you can take that one to the Bank of Free Republic.

[Ilithiad]

47. Iranian nuclear threat

You are foolish to believe such. No they are not a threat to the United States but to other countries near them ...namely Israel, which the US is sworn the unsure the security of. Barak Obama is ill equipped to handle a nuclear Iran...

[dailykoff]

48. They have enough US-built nukes to blow up the solar system.

They can take care of themselves.

[Ilithiad]

58. Obama and nuclear war

So do we so do the russians so do the chinese. That is not the point. The point is to disarm Iran either peacefully or nonpeacefully. Iran is a dangerous threat to world security obama is not qualified to handle.

[dailykoff]

61. Exactly how is Iran a dangerous threat to anyone but Iraq?

You've been watching too much TV.

[Ilithiad]

67. TV

I only have one TV and it is on Dora the explorer or Diego most of the time for my kids...Iran is a threat to Israel and an attack on Israel would lead to world war. Do you think Obama should be president in that situation? I wouldn't. The Middle east is a most volatile area in the world that needs to be handled by someone with experience and not someone going through on the job training. Words are cheap. Only actions matter.

[SwampG8r]

84. you call them our enemy

but as far as i know we are not in a war state with iran
they are another member of the international community who hasnt had a chance to deal freshly with the us since 1980
everyone is always saying we cant talk to these people and for once i would like to see that demonstrated as a fact
if we hadnt propped the shah up and held democracy back in iran for years before the overthrow
iran would be what it historically (until recently )always was
a good friend to the us
they turned to us for a shot a democracy and instead saw a tyrant supported by nixon. when nothing changed under carter despite their pleas for freedom, the iranians overthrew an intolerable system
and carters ineptitude allowed religious fanatics to take control of a needed middle eastern ally

basically the castro situation on a camel

[Skip Intro]

3. God, the same old talking ponts. Over and over again. Dizzy yet?

[RBInMaine]

4. Yeah, and you guys just SPIN and LIE, SPIN and LIE ! Dizzy yet ??

[Skip Intro]

9. I don't think it would be fair to respond to you.

[RBInMaine]

13. Well will you respond to this: Are you for Hillary because she is female? Be honest now.

[Skip Intro]

17. Evidently I will. I'm for Hillary because I think she'd make, by far, the best president.

I'm not for Obama because I see though the bullshit.

Not gonna play twenty questions with you. Did you miss a dose of something?

[TheWraith]

20. Evidently you can't see through the bullshit that's being slung.

Either that, or you're just blatantly dishonest, since the only counter-argument you can muster is personal attacks on other DUers and smearing the presumptive nominee.

[Skip Intro]

40. Oh I see the bullshit. I'm responding to it.

Link me to a dishonest statement that I made, please.

The DUer in question asked me if I was for Hillary because she's female. WTF kind of question is that? Did that poster attack me or did I replly in kind?

Smearing the presumptive nominee? Where, when? Is criticizing the "THE ONE" now considered blasphemy? What should the punishment be? Keep your fucking lockstep mentality and you can have my share of kool aid too.

Thou Shall Not Speak Ill Of Obama.

FUCK THAT.

[PseudoIntellect]

7. delete

edit: del

[Bigleaf]

11. Just what the hell are you saying? We're busy here at Clinton headquarters crunching numbers.

See? We think your numbers are off a bit.

[SwampG8r]

85. and arranging transportation

[SwampG8r]

86. doing pot luck supper fundraisers

[SwampG8r]

87. meet and greets with the public

[SwampG8r]

88. not to mention the extra things she does for charity

yup
that hiliarry is a busy gal

[chill factor]

90. No, Senator Obama's math is not off.......

In order for Hillary to catch up in pledged delegates, she would need to win PA by 65%, and the remaining primary states by 64% and that is not going to happen.

Hillary is her own worst enemy, and Bill is her second foot in the mouth. You can crunch the numbers all you want, you can throw out all of the BS you want, but it is not going to change the final result - Senator Obama will win the nomination.

Too many of Hillary's supporters are so adamant about having a woman as president, they are blinded to her faults. If you want to argue with logic and reason for your candidate, good, give it a shot! If all you can do to is put down Senator Obama and help take down the party in the process, you do yourself and your candidate a huge disservice.

The same goes for Senator Obama's supporters.

[maddiejoan]

12. This is a HillFan

Please try to follow Skinner's guidelines for civility, and refer to Hillary supporters as such.

kthxbye.

:hi:

[RBInMaine]

14. Will you folks promise not to call me an "ObamaBot" again. (What's wrong with HillFAN?? It's CIVIL)

[maddiejoan]

15. I can't speak for others

I have been calling Obama supporters :

:Obama supporters

[RBInMaine]

21. HillFAN is pretty darn civil and shorter. With all respect, let's not be so sensitive.

[maddiejoan]

25. it's trivializing

I'm not a "fan".

She's a Presidential candidate --not a movie star

[RBInMaine]

30. And this is a blog, not the congressional record. Loosen up.

[maddiejoan]

32. Any one who knows me

knows me as someone who is quite mellow.

I don't think you know me nearly well enough to attempt telling me what my reactions should be.

Ya wanna dialogue? --start with respect.

Otherwise, Adios.

[RBInMaine]

22. So, tell me now, does Hillary's gender play heavily into your support of her??

[maddiejoan]

23. Plays absolutely no role

in my decision --why?

[RBInMaine]

27. Really? Honestly? (Why? Curious to see how many are willing to admit that it DOES play such role.)

[maddiejoan]

29. Truly

Her gender has absolutely nothing to do with my support of her candidacy.

[RBInMaine]

35. Hm. Interesting. Really. Well, just what then does motivate you to her?

And to be fair, race doesn't move me to Obama (although for some it certainly does, just the way it goes - just as gender is the PRIMARY attribute for many with Hillary). My first choice was Edwards, as it was in '04. Obama is my choice now because not only is he brilliant and plenty experienced, he is new, refreshing, and has an uncanny ability to inspire and unite, something we sorely need. Hillary is very bright and competent. I can't stand, though, the way she has run a very dirty campaign as though she is owed the presidency. I frankly have Clinton fatigue and am sick of the dynasties. I also can't stand that she takes more PAC and lobbyist money than many R's, and then claims to be a candidate of the working class. I can't stand how she keeps reinventing herself for whatever audience she needs to impress. Remember when she said "You get change by working for it, not hoping or fighting for it." And then in OH and PA she says she is a "fighter" for the middle and working class.
Sorry. Enough of the Clintons. (If she were to be nominated, I'd vote for her. But have to admit, with a clothespin on my nose.)

[maddiejoan]

38. I think she's the smartest of our candidates

I think she's the most dedicated to core Democratic social issues.

I think she has a proven record of working well with across the aisle to bring about change.

I think she's better on LGBT concerns.

And I think she's got better potential as a President, and I think she will be the President more equipped to bring
to fruition the nearly identical platforms of her's and Obama's.

I think Obama will be a good President. I think Hillary will be a great one.

[RBInMaine]

53. What "change"?? Core Dem social issues? Like taking corporate PAC $? Jeesh...

[RBInMaine]

56. Smartest?? She didn't pass the DC bar. Obama was HARVARD review prez. Do more research.

[maddiejoan]

64. At this point

You have made it clear you don't wish to dialogue.

I've done the research.

We disagree.

You are personally insulting at this point --and I have not insulted you, not do I intend on 'returning the favor'

You can pretty much not bother anymore, as I find your posting style decidely non-productive to discussion.

Next time if you ask someone's opinion --maybe you should leave it at that.

kthxbye,

[MyNameGoesHere]

95. A fan goes to a football game

and is called such as it is derived from fanatic. I am neither.

[JimGinPA]

18. Obama Said She Should Be The One To Decide And That...

[Zachstar]

28. Sorry but I aint going to even read this with the use of "Hillfans"

It is not helping Obama.

The term is called Clinton Supporters.

If we can't stop this damn namecalling then we need only blame ourselves if they feel alienated when Clinton exits.

[maddiejoan]

34. Thank you

[RBInMaine]

36. Need some more cheese to go with that whine? LIGHTEN UP.

[Zachstar]

45. Excuse me but this is about the future and we need their support.

If we continue to alienate them with the namecalling rather than than just the math and the facts. They may not be so eager to support Obama in the GE and we also need the numbers to help in congressional races.

Everyone needs to stop with the crap.

[RBInMaine]

50. HILLFAN HILLFAN HILLFAN. It is NOT UnCivil. Quit whining !

[Zachstar]

55. It is uncivil. It is unprofessional and it makes us look like kids in my views.

Just use Clinton Supporter in the future and be done with it.

[RBInMaine]

62. THIS is what you are concerned about? Pretty sad. Give me a break.

[Zachstar]

66. Are you here to cause trouble? Or do you care about the situation?

[RBInMaine]

68. Are you kidding? After the HILLFAN vitriol? What's next? Need a hug?

[RBInMaine]

70. YES, it is UNprofessional> THIS IS A POLITICAL BLOG, NOT A CONGRESSIONAL HEARING !!

[Lilith Velkor]

72. ...

[SwampG8r]

89. give em a break

they admitted that shes gonna pull out if only by inference


"when she exits"


"Thank You"

thanking him in advance of her exit
they know its true
but have not come to terms with it fully
theres hope for them yet

[Eurobabe]

92. Yeah, HillFANS is as bad as GoBOTS.

Clean it up. :eyes:

[ORDem]

39. All good points!!

:kick:

[soothsayer]

41. All elections are rigged. The candidate they want is the one we'll get.

Don't kid yourself that we live in a democracy.

[dailykoff]

43. There's some truth to that.

It's certainly been the case in the last two presidential elections. However, I'm confident that Obama (a) has been made aware of the situation, if he wasn't already, and (b) has mapped out a plausible path to victory that takes rigging into acccount. I don't think he'd still be running if he hadn't.

[Ilithiad]

54. presidential elections

As far as elections go we do live in a democracy. The reason why bush won in 2004 is because it is very difficult for a president to be voted out of office in the middle of a war. It just doesnt happen. As for 2000 screw up in Florida...conspiracy theories what not...Destiny made bush our president so we could all see how arrogant America has become in the International arena and needed to be humbled. The realities of the instability in the mIddle east has revealed its ugly head. The iraq war needed to happen so America can return to itself and work on U.S. for a change. No matter who wins the democratic nomination we will have a democrat as president. But the real power in washington is not in the oval office. It is in the Senate and House...Democrats need to maintain control of those two institutions in a larger majority, which isn't likely to happen because the american people are dissatisfied with a democratic controlled congress as much as it was a republican controlled one.

[stillcool]

69. In case you are interested...

here are a few links that demonstrate who controls our destiny.
http://www.ejfi.org/Voting/Voting.htm
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/
http://www.federalelectionreform.com/pdf/Voting%20Systems%20Issue%20Brief.pdf
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/info/everest.aspx
http://www.votetrustusa.org/pdfs/Diebold%20Folder/uconn-report-os.pdf
http://www.verifiedvoting.org/index.php

[RBInMaine]

51. Paranoia.

[BenDavid]

46. listen obama folks, when hrc wins Pa. WV.Ind.Kentucky,PR, and

maybe North Carolina after the bomshell against obama and the delegates see the mo with HRC and obama losing big time, there will be many delegates that will switch to HRC.....you say, they cannot do that.

Excuse me, A pledged delegate is pledged to a particular candidate and cannot switch, right? Wrong. Pledged delegates are not really pledged at all, not even on the first ballot. This has been an open secret in the party for years, but it has never really mattered because there has almost always been a clear victor by the time the convention convened. But not this time. This time, one candidate may enter the convention leading by just a few pledged delegates, and those delegates may find themselves being promised the sun, moon and stars to switch sides and HRC with the mo.

So see this could happen and it should.....only problem with obama's plan, he wants to campaign hard in those red dumfuckistan states that will never vote Democrat, and foregoing those blue states he will need if the nominee......POOR OBAMA< SITTING ONE DAY ON TOP AND THE NEXT IN THE TOILET....

[RBInMaine]

49. I could go into detail, but to say you are FULL OF CRAP about sums it up.

[barb162]

52. Obama's not going to the convention as the nominee; he'll never get enough votes

Quit YOUR spinning.

[RBInMaine]

59. You are full of it. She can't beat the pledged del. math. Supers won't override them.

Keep pipe dreaming about Hillary. Also, most know she's the weakest, most flawed, most polarizing national candidate. They won't go with her.

[Ilithiad]

74. Listen up

What the dnc will go with is who wins the biggest states in the traditonal democratic voting bloc and who gained the mostnew democratic voters in red states...a la florida anyone? You have to remember Bill Clinton did not win the nominee until June I think around the time of the DNC. Obama will never get the superdelagate nod...Not enough experience.

[my3boyz]

83. I'm going to bookmark this so that I can bump it after Obama wins the nomination.nt

[DemBones DemBones]

77. Obama has a minuscule lead. That's why he -- and his fans -- want

Hillary Clinton to drop out.

She will go to Denver with about the same number of delegates that Obama will, maybe a few more.

If the superdelegates are foolish enough to give Obama the nomination when he has picked up his delegates from states he could not possibly win in November, then McCain wins.

We Clinton supporters are not reality-challenged.

[GarbagemanLB]

79. Not reality challenged? LOL. If you knew anything about the proportional system the DNC has, this is

not a close race.

[PseudoIntellect]

82. "About the same number of delegates."

Actually, she's down by over 135 delegates right now.

Remember her HUUUGE win in Ohio? That gained her 9 net delegates.

Ohio would have to vote 15 more times just for Hillary to almost tie him.

Meanwhile, Obama is gaining superdelegates by the day. The math is a lot tougher than you think. The superdelegates are ALREADY choosing Obama, in case you haven't noticed. Trend since 2/5 is clear, so please don't accuse the front-runner of being reality-challenged, especially when you make statements like "Obama is only winning because of useless red states" or stuff like that.

[question everything]

80. If you are such a math expert, what business is if for you?

So let us play at make believe. Why does it bother you so much? What are you afraid off?

[dbmk]

91. Some things could be:

1) Perpetuating bitter party infighting - for no apparent reason, given the numbers. Yes, they need 2024. But find me a decent analyst that can outline how Hillary will get there. I can't.

2) Burning democratic dollars on fighting internally. Dollars that could be spent in the GE against McCain.

3) The adverse effects of having one candidate in the Dem constantly saying that the other - and front runner - is not ready for the job. Instead of just arguing that she is the better choice, Hillary is mixing it up with saying that Obama is the least qualified to be CiC - of ALL the candidates still in play.

There is plenty of reasons that Hillary should call it quits. For her own sake and the party, and consequently the countrys.
But then there are also good reasons that the race should keep going. It is bringing out people in masses obviously. And its getting screentime like nothing else. So 2) is not completely wasted.

And was it not for 3) I am pretty sure more people would be willing to see it go on.

[bridgit]

81. { yawn }

[goldcanyonaz]

96. Great picture! So cute!!

[Moderate-Democrate]

97. I dissagree

I dissagree with your position or any ones position that Hill can not win. Obama can not win when you look at the math. If FL counted, would Obama be ahead or behind?

[JBoy]

100. Ahead.