Latest InsiderAdvantage Poll Pennsylvania Primary: Clinton 48%, Obama 38%

[DemGa]

Looks like the Obama "surge" may have peaked and is now receding -- a good narrative for Clinton's upcoming victories.

"April 9, 2008 — A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton regaining some ground she’d previously lost to Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race.

Here are the results of our new poll:

Clinton 48%

Obama 38%

Undecided 13%*

The survey was conducted April 8 among 681 likely registered voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender with a margin of error of +/-3.6%."

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_49_328.aspx

[shayes51]

1. And the undecideds will go for Clinton, I predict.

[Zachstar]

2. She is not going to have upcoming victories when Bill keeps doing things that Harm her Campaign

BTW If I were in yalls shoes I would not be celebrating until Clinton is back to 15 percent. Anything under 10 and Clinton is not going to net many delegates.

4-8 are the numbers that seem to be more consistent.

[rodeodance]

8. I settle for the upward thrend last few days--in many polls

[tekisui]

3. This poll suggests movement up for Hillary.

The average of all the polling data still have her lead in single digits. If more data like this comes in the next week, she could get back to her 10+ lead, time will tell.

[spinbaby]

4. Hillary's had some good ads lately

I think the "trapdoor" one is especially effective. But Obama will have a massive ground campaign going in the last week and that could really make a difference.

[rodeodance]

7. agree on both counts

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Just like Ohio?

On the ground game, of course.

[DemVet]

5. Obama will be lucky to come within 10% of Hillary.

[rodeodance]

6. REC--good

[Sadie5]

9. BO is worried

The blue collar vote in Penn just isn't drinking the kool aid like he wants them to.

[rodeodance]

15. kool aid gets stale after a while

[PBS Poll-435]

10. And Obama's support is STILL

38-44%

Unchanged in 1 month of campaigning.

It is a shame those millions in ads did nothing.

[Political Heretic]

12. Keith number, 16.6% -- that's huge.

[Political Heretic]

13. Folks the only poll that matters is the Real Clear Politics average

Posting anything else is just silly.

RCP averages all the polls together. There current averages include that one poll well out of the mainstream that had Clinton up by 18 points. Altogether average of Penn. Polls through 4/9 has Clinton 49.1 Obama 41.3 for a 7.8 point lead for Clinton.

That sounds about right. Obama will be lucky to keep it under 10 points in a state she was leading by nearly 20.

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
Tuesday, April 22 | Delegates at Stake: 188
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 04/02 to 04/08 - 49.1 41.3 Clinton +7.8
InsiderAdvantage 04/08 - 04/08 681 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 04/07 - 04/08 1124 LV 46 43 Clinton +3.0
Rasmussen 04/07 - 04/07 695 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 04/05 - 04/07 597 LV 56 38 Clinton +18.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/04 - 04/06 LV 47 42 Clinton +5.0
Quinnipiac 04/03 - 04/06 1,340 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Time 04/02 - 04/06 676 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0

[rodeodance]

14. That 20-some have said 30 pt lead previous that you use is Lame--of

course she would have the lead until another viable candidate comes in.
seems that is the talking point on this board whenever Obama loses some pts