New Zogby Poll PA: Clinton 47 Obama 43

[catgirl]

10% undecided

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1477

[loveangelc]

1. i cant believe zogby

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I can, when it's pretty much inline with every other poll.

[PBS Poll-435]

21. Sure...why not?

Texas -

ARG* 02/29 - 03/01 600 LV 47 47 Tie
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/28 - 03/01 736 LV 43 47 Obama +4.0
WFAA/Belo Tracking 02/28 - 03/01 730 LV 46 46 Tie
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/27 - 02/29 708 LV 43 45 Obama +2.0
M-D/Star-Telegram 02/27 - 02/29 625 LV 45 46 Obama +1.0
ARG* 02/27 - 02/28 600 LV 44 51 Obama +7.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/26 - 02/28 704 LV 42 48 Obama +6.0
FOX News 02/26 - 02/28 600 LV 45 48 Obama +3.0

[kwenu]

54. I thought the SUSA poll was the only accurate poll for Hillary fans.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

52. yes Obama is catching up well in PA

[Alter Ego]

2. Welp

[Vinca]

3. He's closing it! Woo hoo!

:woohoo:

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Zogby sucks - even from an Obama perspective.

[catgirl]

5. Other polls have him this close too

the more the merrier.

[truedelphi]

18. Zogby is actually pretty reliable, I think.

And the fact that she is only going to win by 4 % says it all. She needs 28% in order to overcome his lead up to this point.

[PBS Poll-435]

23. 11 days from the primary....

Zogby...not so good

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/26 - 02/28 708 LV 44 42 Clinton +2.0

[MadBadger]

7. STAY AWAY ZOGBY!!! AHHHH

[crankychatter]

8. Four percent?

four percent?

just FOUR PERCENT?

ONLY FOUR?

k/r

countdown

[MadBadger]

9. Ewww...Newsmax?

[uponit7771]

10. 10% undecided is Obamas number...he wins the state if he wins them

[book_worm]

11. I'm not trusting Zogby, but it's really not much different than most other PA polls.

[bluestateguy]

12. I hope Obama does not run out of time

nt

[MadBadger]

13. Remember, next Wednesday is a Debate.

[jackson_dem]

14. Good. If the past is an indicator Clinton will move up after the debate

You could argue the Ohio debate was the beginning of the end for Obama in Ohio.

[yardwork]

22. No. Obama never had much of a chance against Hillary in Ohio.

I don't think that the debates made any difference.

[jackson_dem]

24. He came from about 20 down to pull within 3-4 after flooding the airwaves. Sound familiar?

[PBS Poll-435]

39. LOL!

Zogby had Obama ahead in Ohio at one point!

[jackson_dem]

42. Good news. Zogby also had Obama winning California too lol (which he lost by 10-11)!

I wonder why Zogby/Newsmax is so pro-Obama. ;) :evilgrin:

[PBS Poll-435]

45. Hmm....

Cause he is going to bring change?

[PBS Poll-435]

15. YES!!!!!

Ohio
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/29 - 03/02 761 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0

So -

If Obama was +2 and actually lost by 10 in the Primary.....


Then Clinton is going to win by at least 12 more than this poll!!!



(That's how much anyone should trust Zogby's dartboard at this point)

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Why not post his Texas numbers?

I see you ignore those, which had Clinton winning by 3, I believe.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. 1 1/2 weeks away?

Nah....I will post this one...

Texas

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/26 - 02/28 704 LV 42 48 Obama +6.0

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Nice try.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1461

His final Texas poll had Clinton up 47-44.

[PBS Poll-435]

33. Yes....

And if you have his final poll from Pennsylvania, please post it.

LOL...Prep that time machine

[Drunken Irishman]

35. What exactly is your point?

I never said Obama would win PA or even lose it by 6%. However, right now, I believe the race there is fairly tight. Anything can happen over the next week, but as of today, I think Clinton's lead has shrunk a lot.

[PBS Poll-435]

37. Zogby is not a very good pollster.

That is my point. Lets compare apples to apples.



11 days from the Texas Primary he had Obama up by 6.

5 days from the Ohio Primary he had Obama up by 2.

His final poll, he had it tied.

You said that his final poll was close. If you consider 10 points close, sure have at it.


However...

For every one of his polls, he was within 2 or 3 of Obama's final number. So that is something to look at in PA

Obama might get around 43%

[Drunken Irishman]

40. What you're forgetting...

Obama never really had a major lead in Texas and nearly every poll had him up in Texas 11 days prior to the primary. Even Survey USA, which has Clinton polling up 18 in PA, had Obama up in their final Texas poll. It's obvious Clinton had a late surge, which was picked up in Zogby's tracking poll and the tracking poll done by local Texas news stations. However, no other polling company did tracking polls in Texas and their final polls that were released a few days prior to the election were off. That's my point, Zogby's numbers for Texas were not much different than any polling company, except he picked up the Clinton surge in the final couple of days there, which actually happened. No other poll, outside of that other tracking poll, picked up a real Clinton surge.

Now for Ohio, you can fault him on that one.

The problem with polls this far out is that they only give us a picture of what is happening today. Anything can happen in the next week. A negative story could leak for both Clinton and Obama that'll create a shift. Things could stay the status quo and the numbers may not shift at all. But Zogby, for all his faults, got Texas right in his tracking poll. He picked up the trend Clinton had leading into the election day and his PA poll pretty much looks like most PA polls out there, with Clinton up by a few points.

[PBS Poll-435]

41. Thankfully, PA is more like OH, than Texas

[Drunken Irishman]

47. Both work for me.

If Obama can hang within 10 there, I'll be happy. :)

[PBS Poll-435]

48. We will see...

:-)

[PBS Poll-435]

Hello -

Care to respond?

[Name removed]

16. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JackORoses]

17. heyoooooooo!

[my3boyz]

25. I will NEVER trust Zogby after CA. I can't believe he still has a job! nt

[nichomachus]

26. Polls are ridiculous

Trying to figure out campaigns from polls is like trying to watch a tennis match by looking at snapshots of it.

[BzaDem]

27. Woohoo! Zogby Clinton + 4 means real-life Clinton + 27

J/k. I wouldn't even trust that Zogby is wrong by the same amount each time.

[anonymous171]

28. YES! OBAMA WILL WIN NOW!

[rodeodance]

29. you go Hillary--polls are trending in favorably for her.

[jackson_dem]

32. +6 in a Temple poll out today as well

-snip-

Differences among demographic groups are stark:
• 83 percent of blacks favor Obama, compared to 31 percent of whites
• 79 percent under the age of 30 favor Obama, compared to 28 percent over 60 years old
• 55 percent of women favor Clinton, compared to 32 percent of men

-snip-

Clinton 47, Obama 41 with leaners. Without leaners it is Clinton 44, Obama 35.

:thumbsup:

http://www.temple.edu/newsroom/2007_2008/04/stories/Templepoll_Pennsylvania.htm

[rodeodance]

36. a toast to Hillary--and thanks

:toast:

[kmsarvis]

44. CLINTON WINS ONLY 32% OF THE MEN AND BARELY A MAJORITY OF THE WOMEN.

YOU WOULD THINK SHE WOULD DO BETTER AMONG WOMEN.

[anonymous171]

53. OMG SHE'S BEING PROPPED UP! SHE CAN NEVER WIN!

[rodeodance]

30. REC

[Bensthename]

34. No money, sniper get in flames again, Obama still gaining... Uh oh....

Of Obama wins, Hillary will be ignored from then on out.

[rodeodance]

38. where or what poll has obama gaining last few day?

[jackson_dem]

43. 0 beyond the margin of error while three or four have had Hill gain beyond the margin of error

[Clintonista2]

46. YES!!!!! EXCELLENT!!!! If Zogby says that she`s 4% ahead, then in reality she`s about 20% ahead

[aaaaaa5a]

49. I'm sorry....

but Zogby has not been that accurate this election cycle. In year's past they have been very good. It's as if Zogby and Survey USA have switched roles. Maybe with the difference in the two polls, Zogby will return to it's traditional reliability.

A quick note about Zogby's California poll. I don't think it was off by that much. California election officials say as much as a 1/3 of the voting was done early. At this time Clinton held about a 20 point lead in the state. Obama actually did very well on election day to only lose by 10. WIth all the early voting in California, there is no way Obama lost California by 10 on election day voting.

It really "irks" me how often the MSM leaves out the importance of early voting. It's been a huge factor in this race. Early voting gives Clinton a big advantage because she often goes into a large state with a 20 point lead. Obama must cut into her lead and fight the voters who already voted before they got the chance to learn about his campaign.

It's just another factor as to why it's so stunning she is losing this race with the tremendous built in advantages she commands.

[Tropics_Dude83]

51. Thank god PA doesn't have early voting!!!:):) n/t

[quantass]

50. k&r

[Alexander]

55. This brings Clinton's polling average down. It's now at Clinton: 48.4%, Obama: 42.3%.

http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresDems.php

She almost averaged near 50%, but lately her poll numbers have been dropping.

Just like in the rest of the country.

If she got 6.1% against Obama (her polling average) in the Pennsylvanian primary, it would look like this:

Clinton - 53.05% and 84 delegates.

Obama - 46.95% and 74 delegates.

The current delegate count is this

Obama - 1,637.5

Clinton - 1,501.5

And would look like this:

Obama - 1,711.5

Clinton - 1,585.5

[ozone_man]

56. If he comes that close, it's over.

If he wins, it's really over.

[PerfectSage]

57. kick

[Lipsyl]

58. Among those likely voters under age 35, Obama leads by a 61% to 32% margin

But it is important to note that Pennsylvania's pool of likely voters over age 35 is much larger than the pool of voters younger than age 35.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1477