The add-on superdelegates projection

[ButterflyBlood]

"Add-on" superdelegates are additional ones chosen either at the state convention or by the state's Democratic Party Committee. Looking at them, things get even more brutal for Hillary. Here's my projection of how they should go:

AL - 1. Chosen, Obama supporter.
AK - 1. Safe Obama (chosen at overwhelmingly pro-Obama convention.)
AR - 1. Chosen, Hillary supporter.
AZ - 1. Lean Hillary. Chosen at state convention, not sure how the delegates are chosen, but unless it's some sort of under the radar caucus I can't see Obama taking it.
CA - 5. Tossup. Likely to split actually.
CO - 1. Safe Obama (chosen at overwhelmingly pro-Obama convention.)
CT - 1. Chosen, Obama supporter.
DC - 2. Chosen, one confirmed Obama supporter, one seems to be Lean Obama.
DE - 1. Chosen, Obama supporter.
GA - 2. Toss up. Might split.
HI - 1. Lean Obama. Chosen by the State Party Committee, but it's tough to see them bucking Obama, especially in light of the state results.
IA - 1. Safe Obama. He has a majority at the convention now.
ID - 1. Safe Obama. Seriously now.
IL - 3. Safe Obama. Duh.
IN - 1. Tossup. Chosen at another convention.
KS - 1. Safe Obama. Obvious.
KY - 1. Tossup. Chosen by state party chair, and who knows, he might give it to Obama despite the state results.
LA - 1. Tossup. Despite the state results, you never know with a machine-driven party like this.
MA - 2. Tossup. The establishment in this state seems to be more pro-Obama than the voters (oddly.) Split is possible.
MD - 2. Tossup. Establishment is kind of pro-Hillary despite the vote.
ME - 1. Safe Obama. Another one elected at a convention he has in the bag.
MN - 2. Safe Obama. :)
MO - 1. Chosen, one Obama supporter, one undecided.
MS - 1. Safe Obama. Mississippi holds caucuses too even though presidential preference is not an issue at them and they don't affect the delegate numbers. But it's pretty obvious who's going to "win" the caucuses and control the convention here.
MT - 1. Tossup. Obama seems to own the state party though.
NC - 2. Tossup. There's a convention but I don't know how the delegates are chosen.
ND - 1. Chosen, Obama supporter.
NE - 1. Safe Obama.
NH - 1. Tossup. I really have no clue what'll happen here.
NJ - 2. Tossup. Chosen this Saturday actually.
NM - 1. Lean Hillary. Who knows, maybe Richardson will pull some strings though.
NV - 1. Lean Hillary. County conventions are finally done, and Hillary has a majority of state convention delegates even though Obama will pick up more national convention delegates from those. But it's a narrow lead, and who knows, possible defections plus no shows...
NY - 4. Safe Hillary.
OH - 2. Tossup.
OK - 1. Chosen, former Edwards supporter now uncommitted.
OR - 1. Tossup, but how is that convention chosen? That might change things...;
PA - 3. Lean Hillary, but who knows, maybe they'll throw a token Obama supporter in.
PR - 1. Tossup.
RI - 1. Tossup.
SC - 1. Safe Obama. This is another state that also has caucuses and doesn't allocate delegates to them, but does choose this delegate at the convention, and it's clear who's going to control this state convention.
SD - 1. Lean Obama. Close to safe. Obama owns the state party here lock, stock and barrel. Anyone else got the impression Tom Daschle has some sort of personal vendetta against the Clintons?
TN - 2. Chosen, one uncommitted, one "leaning" Hillary.
TX - 3. Lean Obama. Chosen at pro-Obama state convention, the lean is only there if Hillary can pull some major hijinks at the convention, unlikely but who knows...
UT - 1. Tossup. Another state I know little about in this area.
VA - 2. Safe Obama. Virginia has caucuses too but the delegate allocation is directly tied to the primary results, so you'll end up with a state convention electing the superdelegates dominated by Obama supporters.
VT - 1. Lean Obama. Close to safe.
WA - 2. Lean Obama. The only reason this is lean is because they're chosen by the state chair and confirmed by the convention, and the state chair is still undecided, but seeing him try to force two Hillary delegates down the convention's throat is very unlikely (especially since if he was that die-hard of a Hillary supporter he wouldn't be undeclared.)
WI - 2. Lean Obama. Chosen by the state party committee, but this is a state where the establishment strongly backs Obama.
WV - 1. Tossup. Another state where the establishment supports Obama more than the voters.
WY - 1. Safe Obama. Another convention chosen one.

That equals:

8 Safe or declared Hillary
7 Lean Hillary
26 Tossup or undecided
11 Lean Obama
24 Safe or declared Obama

So Hillary's best case scenario seems to be around 41, which is 54% of the total, pretty bleak considering she needs around 71% of remaining superdelegates and over 60% of all superdelegates...in addition a 50/50 split of the tossup/undecideds gives her less than 37%.