THE MATH – Monday, April 14 – One Week Before Pennsylvania

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Monday, April 14 – One Week Before Pennsylvania

TIME: 6:00 a.m. Eastern (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,687.0 of 3,253.0 – 82.6%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 93 of 304 remaining superdelegates needed, or 30.6%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 230 of 304 remaining superdelegates needed, or 75.7%

The Huckabee Index – 74 (or 24.3% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,700.5 (74 above HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,534.5 (92 below HALF)

Projected “Popular” Vote (unweighted) without Florida and Michigan:
Barack Obama – 16,675,542 (+663,192)
Hillary Clinton – 16,012,350

Projected “Popular” Vote (unweighted) with Florida and Michigan added*:
Barack Obama – 17,251,756 (+40,111)
Hillary Clinton – 17,211,645
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 1,654.5 (369.0 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,502.5 (521.0 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 871.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 4/14/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 230 (Source: NBC 4/14/08)
Hillary Clinton – 259 (Source: NBC 4/14/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 304

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 1,420.5 (206.0 short of HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,248.5 (378.0 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 4/14/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 30; Hillary Clinton – 15

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 16; Hillary Clinton – 12

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red

********************************************

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Total weighted* popular vote as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 15,812,583 (+1,761,239)
Hilary Clinton – 14,051,344
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Status Quo unweighted as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 13,689,293 (+827,308)
Hillary Clinton – 12,861,985
(Source: Wikipedia 4/14/08)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 13,218,123 (+620,440)
Hillary Clinton – 12,597,683

Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, weighted as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 16,388,797 (+1,466,467)
Hillary Clinton – 14,922,330

With Florida only added, unweighted as of April 14:
Barack Obama – 14,265,507 (+532,536)
Hillary Clinton – 13,732,971

With Michigan only added, weighted as of April 14*:
Barack Obama – 15,812,583 (+1,432,930)
Hillary Clinton – 14,379,653
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Michigan only added, unweighted as of April 14*:
Barack Obama – 13,689,293 (+498,999)
Hillary Clinton – 13,190,294
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of April 14*:
Barack Obama – 16,388,797 (+1,138,158)
Hillary Clinton – 15,250,639
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of April 14*:
Barack Obama – 14,265,507 (+204,227)
Hillary Clinton – 14,061,280
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22): Clinton +4.0 (Zogby 4/8)
Guam (May 3): No Poll
Indiana (May 6): Clinton +9.0 (ARG 4/3)
North Carolina (May 6): Obama +21.0 (PPP 4/7)
West Virginia (May 13): Clinton +28.0 (Rasmussen 3/20)
Kentucky (May 20): Clinton +29.0% (SurveyUSA 3/31)
Oregon (May 20): Obama +10 (SUSA 4/6)
Puerto Rico (June 1): Clinton +13 (Reg y Reg 4/9)
Montana (June 3): Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3): No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 233 of 304, or 76.6% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 230 of 305, or 75.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 222 of 316, or 70.1% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 218 of 317, or 68.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 90 of 304, or 29.6% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 108 of 305, or 35.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 95 of 316, or 29.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 112 of 317, or 35.2% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 204 of 304, or 67.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 201 of 305, or 65.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 193 of 316, or 60.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 189 of 317, or 59.5% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 119 of 304, or 39.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 137 of 305, or 44.8% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 124 of 316, or 39.1% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 141 of 317, or 44.3% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 34.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 65.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 36.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 63.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 35.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 64.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 37.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 62.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

********************************************

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass




Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

2. Save this sub-thread for OP updates

Don't reply here. Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

41. Cumulative Monday Updates

Senator Obama gained one superdelegate, per MSNBC (was 230, now 231).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

PPP Poll for North Carolina (4/13) has Obama +20 (was Obama +21).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041408.pdf

SUSA Poll for Indiana (4/13) has Clinton +16 (was Clinton +9).
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d8b46eaa-c463-408e-98d2-b830eb122d39

Updated Huckabee Index: 76 (was 74)

Also, to illustrate the huge variances in Pennsylvania polls for different pollsters, SurveyUSA shows a graph (below) of polls in Pennsylvania over the past two months with an estimated trend (the black line). Such a graph can help determine if a poll might be an outlier, like the recent ARG poll.

[phrigndumass]

3. Commentary – A week that went well for Senator Clinton numbers-wise

Last weekend was a very good weekend for Senator Obama in the way of numbers. He had gained five superdelegates over the weekend and a rare weekend poll was released that showed he had moved to a 23-point lead in North Carolina. Since last Monday’s post, all of the statistical good news fell into the Clinton camp with the exception of a new poll in Oregon.

One week ago, Pennsylvania was evenly split while North Carolina was +23 for Obama and Indiana was only +3 for Clinton. Just seven days later, Pennsylvania has moved 4 points toward Clinton, North Carolina has moved 2 points toward Clinton, and Indiana has moved 6 points toward Clinton. These three states are the most populous and will allot the most delegates of the remaining contests. Add to that five superdelegates who have endorsed Senator Clinton since last Monday and we see a very good week for her, numbers-wise. (Senator Clinton is now almost to the point where she was with superdelegates as of Super Tuesday.)

With that said, the overall percentages and magic numbers haven’t moved that much regardless of a good numbers week for Senator Clinton. Why is this? Probably the most significant number in the OP is 82.6. The primary season is 82.6% over. Huge swings in favor or against either candidate won’t change that fact. To illustrate this, I’m sure we’ve all sat up on election night to watch TV or pay attention to the internet as the election results came in. The election results are 52-48 in favor of Senator Obama, which is close percentage-wise, but 82.6% of the results have already been counted. Winners have been correctly projected at this margin in the past with fewer results in.

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

4. No response this morning?

I guess everyone is still in attack mode.

[Scurrilous]

5. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

7. Good morning, Scurrilous!

:hi:

[Scurrilous]

27. Hi phrigndumass.

:hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

6. K&R

I think Obama got another SD yesterday...

[phrigndumass]

8. Yes, Nancy Larson of MN (DNC)

Thanks!

:hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

32. Okay cool!!

:hi:

[JeffR]

9. K & R & thank you!

:dem:

[phrigndumass]

15. Good morning, Jeff

Thanks!

:hi:

[Apollo11]

10. Enough with the math already!

Can't you please give those numbers a rest until after April 22nd? :eyes:

Oh shoot - I just kicked your thread .......... :mad:

[phrigndumass]

11. LOL ... just keeping up with the polls

Good morning!

:hi:

[psychopomp]

16. I can't tell if you are kidding

but I will join you in that :kick:

[yellerpup]

12. ...

Kick! :kick:

[TexasLady]

13. K and R

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. Wasn't the Huck Number 73 last week?

The sky is falling!

[phrigndumass]

17. It was 63 last week ... good morning!

Up 11, but it was a good week stats-wise for Senator Clinton. That big wave of success brought her chances of winning up to probably a dizzying twelve percent! :woohoo:

[grantcart]

23. what polls helped her?

[phrigndumass]

25. PA, NC, IN ... plus five SDs

Pennsylvania moved 4 points toward Senator Clinton, North Carolina moved 2 points toward her, and Indiana moved 6 points toward her. Plus, she gained five superdelegates in the last week (almost back to where she was before Super Tuesday). Also, removed the NC-6. More info in Reply #3 upthread.

Nice to see your graph with Senator Obama sitting at 50! Seventh day in a row above margin of error. Senator Clinton's 40, wow ... that's the lowest it has been in at least a month.

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

30. ah bloggers at demconwatch are convinced that there are 5 more pledged delegates

soon to be coming Obama's way 3 in Idaho 1 each in LA and WA but its better to wait. In anycase regardless of who wins PA the Huckabee Index is going to take a dive.

BTW I thought NC moved back to Obama

[phrigndumass]

31. Hope they're right! They have a good track record so far ...

Link to demconwatch, in case anyone else wants to visit:
http://www.demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Re: NC ... Poll last week was Obama +23, now Obama +21. That's what I meant by "two points toward Clinton."

Teh hucknumber likes teh Obama.

[Zachstar]

45. Will they do this before the Primary?

5 SDs going to Obama before the primary will give a needed boost.

More importantly it will likely reduce the time before Obama overtakes Clinton in pledged delegates. A point in my view is the point where Clinton will exit the race.

[phrigndumass]

47. Seems you're getting SDs and PDs mixed up

Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama in superdelegates (SDs). Grantcart is speaking of pledged delegates (PDs) that are awarded from the state contests.

Caucuses and primaries sometimes have many steps in awarding the pledged delegates for a state contest. Some states hold back a certain number of pledged delegates and award them at later caucuses or at their state convention. Other states award all the pledged delegates after the first step, and then adjust the numbers for each successive step or at their state convention.

The delegates grantcart is speaking of will change the pledged delegate totals, and not affect the superdelegate totals where Senator Clinton currently leads.

Hope this helps! :dunce:

[Road Scholar]

18. Thanks phrigndumass! Promise to do one after Pennsylvania.

:kick: & R

[phrigndumass]

21. Will do!

Thanks!

:hi:

[Zachstar]

19. Thanks for the math post! Please make another a day before the primary!

[phrigndumass]

20. I'll probably post a math thread on Monday and Wednesday next week

Thanks!

:hi:

[AtomicKitten]

22. Those numbers are a bitter pill for Clinton to swallow.

Excellent work as usual!

K&R :hi:

[phrigndumass]

26. Thanks AK!

:hi:

[slinkerwink]

24. kicking for da math!

[hogwyld]

28. Kicking out of sheer bitterness!!! n/t

[phrigndumass]

29. ROFL! Alanis Morissette should write a song!

oh wait, she did, she mistook bitterness for Ironic.

:evilgrin:

[Kurovski]

33. Kick. (nt)

[Scurrilous]

34. Kick

:kick:

[Symarip]

35. Kicked and Recommended

Just saw 21 last night. Math RULES!

[phrigndumass]

36. Haven't seen 21 yet ... going this week some time

Movies are always better on a weeknight, less crowded!

:hi:

[FedoraLV]

37. Thank you for the update! /nt

[phrigndumass]

42. Happy to do it ... thanks for reading

:hi:

[Bensthename]

38. Wow, good work. A clear picture on who the nominee will be.

[phrigndumass]

43. Thanks Ben!

:hi:

[Zachstar]

46. Unless Clinton wins BIG in PA the picture will clear up even more!

[grantcart]

39. evening kick

[jazzjunkysue]

40. This post should come with aspirin. My head hurts. Well done. Thanks.

:hug: K&R

[phrigndumass]

44. Thanks Sue!

Someone to share your pain :hi: