I predict a split decision in PA

[Perky]

Clinton will win the Popular vote by 2-5%, but Obama will win the mot delegates.

This is based largely on the design of Congressional Map.
103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates (27)
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each (20)
CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each (30)
CDs 6: 6 delegates each (6)
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each (35
CD 2: 9 delegates (18)

{b}In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs

The allocation of the statewide At-large delegates are almost assuredly going to be 28 to 27 for Clinton

She will do far better than he in the middle of the state,but the problem is those Districts have far fewer delegates in spite of equal population. He will do far better in Philly. and the Philly suburbs then she does. and if you look at the numbers that is where the delegates are far greater.

Unfortunately while Hillary night be able to claim another big state win... SHe will not close the gaps on Delegates.


See you in Oregon.

[kmsarvis]

1. INTERESTING,

Another Texas.

[Perky]

2. Very Similar

But with a larger African American Demographic in Philly,


The one caveat in al this is that Obama registed 200,00 new Dems. If he can get those people to the polls and voting for him and he is only down by 5% or so he coule win if he pulls aouyt 75%aof those new voters.

It is highly like that the pollster are not factoring in that sort of new voter volume. But here is the thing. It might not make much difference in the delegate outcome... becsue there were registered in areas where he was already predicted to do well. It would help him with the PV but just becuse of the "over 40% rule" it may not change the delegate counts at all.

[AllentownJake]

3. The pollsters

Have no information on the new democratic voters. They are polling likely voters from current voter registration rolls.