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............................................ 2004 ..........................................................
In 2004 Kerry got swiftboated. His patriotism was questioned. 527 Groups hammered Kerry on this and that was the traction Bush needed to seal the deal. What deal, you ask? To create perception. Find anything that will stick to create the perception that Kerry was not being straight about his own military record. This took the heat off of Bush and his fairytale military bravery.
When the media swarmed this swiftboat story, it was easy to debunk but since Kerry didn't push back, the media obliged us with more of the same stupefied reporting we get from traditional media today. What this perception did was create the reasoning why Kerry didn't win the election in 2004.
The media was the willing accomplice to Bush, giving light to the Swiftboaters and sitting on any push back from the Kerry campaign. And even when polling data and especially exit polling showed Kerry being favored to win the election, it didn't matter because the election was being stolen. Bush had painted Kerry as an elitist, who wasn't straight about his war record and this would be the reason why Bush would prevail. Enabled by the media, fanning this perception even understanding that Kerry was a true patriot, Bush would find his reasons for trumping Kerry. The election was stolen but that reason could never hold water. Decision pronounced... Kerry lost because he was a weak, elitist who lied about his war record. Bush prevailed because he was a strong leader in a time of war.
.............................................. 2008 .........................................................
BITTER
In 2008, Obama spoke at a fundraiser in San Francisco, a very liberal stronghold. His words were taped. Did anyone ever question how those words saw the light of day? Absolutely not. The recording we heard was taken out of context... purposefully. He explained how people in small towns across PA and IN and IL were bitter because politicians come in, tell them what they want to hear and then never do anything about jobs being shipped overseas. 25 years this had been done. And by all accounts after listening to the entire speech it sounded to me like he was excoriating politicians for doing this. he was understanding of why people take refuge in the fight for issues like religion and guns and immigration because they can do something about those kinds of issues. It's what they fight to hang on to given they couldn't stop the jobs from being shipped out their towns.
Clinton and McCain seized on Obama's word "bitter" to paint Obama as "elitist", and "condescending". And Democrats as usual fell for this Republican talking point. The Democratic surrogates said the words were regretful, explaining that Obama used a poor choice of words even when he hadn't. You see, establishment pols see the world through the lens of the experienced. They frame the debates as if they were happening in the "past" instead of the "present". What has been will always be even as they understand that change happens every day of our lives.
And here is what this word "bitter" does. It creates perception in the narrowing days before a primary. To get Obama out of the way Clinton and McCain needed to take something... anything to get rid of him. Old world politics says, create the perception that Obama is a liberal, latte drinking, elitist that looks down on plain folks and this will doom his candidacy with the working class.
Obama danced around an apology while Clinton yucked it up with beer and shots dad/daughter hunting stories. Again creating perception that she is just like working class Pennsylvanians. That Obama is "the" African American candidate, raised by a single parent, just finished paying off his student loans and has made far less than Clinton or McCain doesn't matter. That she has made some 109 million dollars, went along with NAFTA, lied about her trip to Bosnia doesn't matter. The perception that she will do anything to win is admirable to people who see her as a fighter, just like them. It is the perception that must prevail.
So the statements lead to perception and the perception is fanned by the media on the heels of a primary and then we see polls pop up all over the place building a lead for Clinton based on that perception, based on spin. It is a well timed game just before the primary. If polls explain the events (bitter statement + media bias) should equal a victory in PA for Clinton. PA is ripe for the plucking. Statement leads to spinning voter outrage gives reason for polls to boost Clintons numbers and thus "take" the state. Perception creates reasoning for voting trends... because the Machine is in Place. Every politician except Casey is backing Clinton. The Clintons are establishment and that should not be lost upon anyone...
..................................................... EXCEPT ......................................
It won't quite happen that way this time. Obama's upbringing is not elitist and people will understand this. What African American who was raised by one parent can be tagged elitist by a woman who shared 109 million dollars and a Republican who has 9 houses and is married to a very wealthy woman? Will this fly? Who knows? But Obama has provided some substantial push back even if the media isn't quite on board. He is hitting some very substantive cues about Clinton's flights of hunting fancy, shaming her for acting like a Republican and distorting his message that people are angry, bitter for the condition that many politicians have left them in. He has once again proven that he will not allow himself to be swiftboated.
I don't know what the outcome will be but I see the debate in PA casting a shadow over this election. The debate will provide much needed context for Obama's statements... and Clintons misstatements.
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