Hillary will get 53 delegates, Obama will get 50 in PA. Even if she wins.

[Hamlette]

This is all about THREE delegates????

How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?

That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts.

And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.

These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.

Of the state’s remaining 84 slots, only 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state’s remaining 29 seats going to unpledged “superdelegates.”

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375&cpage=1

Okay, granted, she could pick up a few more from the other 55 pledged delegates which are distributed by statewide totals but not many.

The bulk of delegates in PA are NOT allotted by a statewide victory.

For this she kneecaps our hope for taking back the WH?

[GarbagemanLB]

1. When you look at the math and reality, it is obvious that the primary is over. Hillary just doesn't

see it yet.

[ShaneGR]

3. I've come to the conclusion, that Hillary wants to be VP, but Obama wont offer

If I'm right, does Obama believe he can't be an effective President with both Hillary and Bill working under him? If I'm wrong, I wonder why Obama wouldn't offer the VP spot to get it over with. It seems like such a dream ticket, remember that SF debate where they kissed each others asses for like 3 hrs? That was awesome, and they're both esteemed candidates.

[Yael]

6. That would be a nightmare ticket

How on earth would they be able to stay on message?

That is his strong suit and her weakest point.

She would be an anchor.

[IntravenousDemilo]

16. Too many chiefs, not enough Indians. Or put differently, too many cooks spoil the broth.

That's why. President Obama would be constantly undermined by two massive egos working under him, one belonging to someone who thinks she should have the top job and the other belonging to someone who thinks he should still have the top job.

[quantass]

17. Seirous NIGHTMARE Indeed for the Democ. Party -- Contradictory Attitudes ripe for Repubs

Obama has a strong, positive message while Hillary's is...hahahaha...what a mess...She would be a serious liability for him. It would have been best for her back just after Super Tuesday since noone saw her as (you can fill in with your favorite noun)

[Hamlette]

4. She's banking on breaking his back and the supers giving it to her because she destroyed him.

I guess if that's all you've got, that's what you go with.

But it really is a GOP tactic, not ours which is why it isn't working here. We don't fall into lock step as easily.

Sad.

She'll be joining Zell and Lieberman when this is over.

The saddest part of what she's doing is how it tarnishes her husband's reputation. The dems would be better off if whe thought we'd had a good president in Bill (party pride etc.). Now we have to look back to JFK (flawed and not in long enough) for a hero.

Bummer.

[Yael]

7. He did it to himself.

[Hamlette]

8. how?

[Yael]

13. He CHOSE to launch the offensive attacks in South Carolina

and erupt over nothing the weekend before each primary with faux outrage.

[Hamlette]

21. ah, you mean Bill, not Obama,

I thought you meant Obama brought Hillary's attacks on himself. Now I get it.

[Yael]

22. Sorry -- I should have been more clear as to what comment I was addressing

:hi:

[Hamlette]

9. how?

[SoFlaJet]

10. but....

she's a FIGHTER...just like Rocky. In fact, I read that she's going to run up and down the same steps in a robe with boxing gloves on if she wins-that'll be so cool...

[apocalypsehow]

20. The problem is, I think she *does* see it: she just doesn't care.

The Queen is furious that some "arrogant" (and we all know what HRC boosters really mean when they say that, don't we?) upstart out of her own home state of Illinois has all but wrecked her coronation.

I think she is staying in for the sole purpose of helping McCain win in November, so she can get another crack at it in 2012.

[Yael]

2. Apparently so.

She's "in it to win it".

[Yael]

5. Thats interesting looking at the district by district commentaries

Apparently, my area is heavy Republican, but the Dems that are here are very liberal.

I would have never guessed that.

[Bilyb]

18. Lots of Drs and Lawyers in Affluent Neighborhoods

... that tend toward liberalism.

[mmonk]

11. She's knee capping for superdelegates, not PA.

[TheDoorbellRang]

12. Actually, she'll probably gain 8 delegates

There are 158 pledged delegates up for grabs; their allocation is just described differently. Here is what TheGreenPapers has on them:

103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
CDs 6: 6 delegates each
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
CD 2: 9 delegates

In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs

I predict she'll win PA by about 6 points: 47-53%, so O = 75; C = 83

Funnily, her net gain will be less than Obama got at the Iowa county convention. :D

[ORDem]

14. PA is more populous (populated) than CA? I don't think so... n/t

[PerfectSage]

15. I'm guessing she picks up +7 max out of the 55 pledged delegates if she can get a +11% PV lead.

I saw something on Dailykos? where the margin for gaining a delegate is calculated as:

200/55 pledged delegates = 3.64%

both HRC & BO start off with 27
assume HRC is winner: HRC +1

3.64% times 3 = 10.91% for HRC to get +3 from BO's 27 she needs to have an +10.91% margin of victory in PA

and HRC gets 31 and BO gets 24 of the 55 pledged delegates distributed by statewide totals and HRC nets +10 outa PA.

HRC will have a hard time getting a +8 total gain in delegates out of PA

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[Bilyb]

19. Senator Obama can make up that difference

...in the do over Caucus for Las Vegas tomorrow. Clinton supporters will be too busy on a Saturday because they work so hard to bother spending time caucusing :-)