If the Polls Hold...

[Crooked Moon]

how can obama argue momentum? granted, under the proportional system, he will emerge with a lead in pledged delegates, but let's assume (for the sake of argument) that clinton takes 6 of the 8...

what then?


pennsylvania: clinton by 5-10 points
kentucky: clinton up huge (30+ points)
indiana: clinton up by 10+
montana: clinton up by 10 (no polls in past 90 days)
north carolina: obama by 10-20 points
oregon: obama by 10 points
west virginia: clinton by 20+ points
puerto rico: clinton by 10+ points

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

[rateyes]

1. When the final buzzer sounds, it doesn't matter who has momentum;

at that point the game is over.

[Lyric]

5. Not unless one of them manages to get enough delegates that the supers

are no longer necessary for the nomination. Momentum might not mean anything to you, but it means a lot to the superdelegates. They want the candidate who can win against McCain. Momentum plays a big part in that.

[crankychatter]

2. If everything stays the same, then Obama can't say things have changed?

do you realize how stupid this is?

nothing personal, but if I were you, I'd pull it before anyone notices.

[mcctatas]

3. Did you hear something..

maybe I'm having auditory hallucinations, but I think that was the sound of the goal posts being moved.....AGAIN...:eyes:

[Crooked Moon]

8. wow... tough crowd.

so, the one who crosses the finish line with the most pledged delegates, regardless that they didn't hit the magic number, should be declared the de facto winner and superdelegates are morally bound to support that candidate?

this is a smart forum, so i know i don't have to remind anyone that there are no such rules governing the nomination process.

so, if clinton does, in fact, win 6 of 8 (including a few potential blowouts), then it means nothing?

i'm asking an honest question here.

[featherman]

27. First of all, you are missing a primary in South Dakota

Which is a solid Obama win.

Secondly, Obama leads the latest poll in Indiana (LaTimes) so that's not a "poll" win for Clinton

Thirdly, it's pretty much a forgone conclusion that Obama will win in Montana pretty handily.

Finally, no one knows much about polling Puerto Rico so the jury is out on that one. Could easily be an Obama blowout as not.

As I read it, Clinton is favored in KY and WV and slightly ahead in PA

Obama wins: SD, MT, OR, NC

Up for grabs: IN, PR

[Joe the Revelator]

31. This is like saying that Obama should have been declared the winner after his 11 state winning

streak.

Some states favor different candidates. Its just the way it is, and its why we use a delegate system.

[Teaser]

32. It don't mean nothing...It means exactly dick

.

[Hamlette]

34. why should that mean anything?

Obama is up 10 nationally, he won something like 17 contests in a row, some of them with huge margins.

The supers should do what they think is right but, given that Obama has played by the rules, won the most votes, won the most pledged delegates, won the most states, why should it be decided by the person who won the last few races?

If Hillary were beating him in the national polls, you might have an argument but it isn't momentum, its the states left to vote.

If you want to talk momentum, I think you need to factor this into your argument:

[goldcanyonaz]

4. SHE WINS!!

[bowens43]

10. ah... no , she doesn't.

[msallied]

6. The proportional system

brings the election straight down to the district level. It's actually more fair than the winner-take-all system, when you look at it district-by-district. Hillary may win more popular votes but not as many delegates because Obama might win more votes in the highly-populated areas of the state. As they say, land doesn't vote, and the proportional system has done a lot to eliminate that pesky little problem. And at the end, delegates are what truly matter.

[BlooInBloo]

7. It's funny how everything matters to Clinton supporters except winning....

... I guess it goes along with Clinton's goal of working for Obama's defeat in the general.

[Crooked Moon]

12. it's also funny how downright pavlovian

obama supporters are in their rage when reminded that the race is not over.

[BlooInBloo]

16. That doesn't even make sense. I've repeatedly stated unambiguously...

... that I hope this race continues.

Only the most casual of acquaintances with the truth - lol. The hilarity of it is one of the 3 reasons I hope the race continues.

[bowens43]

9. What then? Obama gets the nomination.

[davsand]

11. What were her polling numbers 6 months ago in these races? Much higher?

Gawd. The early numbers showed just how high her name recognition was. She had an enormous advantage going into this election. The race was hers to lose, and guess what she's done?


Laura

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Then Obama wins.

Hillary Clinton needs to win every single state by 30 pts. just to tie Obama, not just Kentucky.

[crankychatter]

14. OK... IF in 6 weeks the Polls don't move and Obama says "the polls moved" that would be untrue.

I have to recommend this, simply because it gets...
"BEST OF" IN THE UTTERLY IDIOTIC CATEGORY

k/r

[Crooked Moon]

15. your kindness is noted.

thanks.

[bluestateguy]

17. You win the game by scoring the most points, not "momentum" (whatever that means)

If you go into the bottom of the 9th inning down 8 runs, and then score 7 runs before making the third out, you could argue that your team has momentum. But the other team still scored more runs, and they win the game.

[Crooked Moon]

23. so sayeth the rules of baseball...

if you can provide documentation that says the leader in pledged delegates after all the primaries gets the nomination, even while falling short of the magic number, i'd be interested in seeing it.

thanks in advance.

[bluestateguy]

29. I would warn Hillary Clinton not to pursue this course

Assuming she loses the popular vote and the pledged delegate tally; if she wins the nomination by way of superdelegates there will be an uproar at the convention that will make 1968 look like a county fair. She will win a worthless nomination. Half of the delegates will walk out on her and most Obama voters will abstain from voting for her in the fall. I'll still vote for her, but many other Obama voters will not. I certainly won't be leading the charge up the mountain on her behalf if she wins the nomination by spitting in the face of the primary voters' will.

[tritsofme]

18. If Hillary leads in the popular vote total, she makes the case to SDs that she has the strongest

moral claim to the nomination.

Obama will say pledged delegates matter.

SDs will have to decide for themselves.

[goldcanyonaz]

19. SHE WINS!!

[cali]

20. bzzzzy. hillarian bullshit. listen up

it's utterly dishonest to claim a candidate is up in a state when no polling has been done since January. Typical and disgusting hillcrew crap. In Indiana Bloomberg, today, has Obama up by 5.

And Obama doesn't need to claim momentum, hilly does. And with these numbers, she can't.

[MonkeyFunk]

21. didn't you swear off using those

childish nicknames just a couple days ago?

[cali]

24. oh, so now hillarian is verboten

please.

[MonkeyFunk]

30. and hilly and hillcrew?

Grow up.

Obviously they're not verboten - I'm asking about YOUR expressed plan to stop using them. What happened? The bile back up too much?

[Quixote1818]

22. She will not win Montana and you left out South Dakota and Guam.

That makes it 5 to 5:

Hillary

Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Indiana
West Virginia
Puerto Rico


Obama

North Carolina
Montana
Oregon
South Dakota
Guam

Obama will most certainly come out ahead in delegates and Win the nom.

[Crooked Moon]

26. o-guam-a!

[thevoiceofreason]

25. Hey, it's one of the 4 Hillary supporters from Austin

And what is the result of these races if they turn out EXACTLY as you say? CXLinyon picks up about 20-30 delegates.

Wanna bet a beer on your numbers? I am colleting a large list of DUers who owe me a brew. But I live in Houston and will be at the convention in June, so I could collect from you. What say you?

[Crooked Moon]

28. i'm not "betting" on anything...

i was posting a hypothetical scenario. the venom has, in my view, been disproportionate in this thread.

yes, i support clinton, but will vote for obama if he is the nominee.

but i'll buy you a beer. sure.

[knixphan]

33. The only momentum the supers and Dean will care about

is how quickly Barack Obama can snap his fingers and raise 50 million.

THAT is momentum.

[BlooInBloo]

35. You mean polls that show "Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, Indiana"?

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll16apr16,1,5167344.story

With troubles like this, who needs bright spots?

:rofl:

[AtomicKitten]

36. Obama's delegate count is insurmountable. What's next for him? The White House.