First Post Debate Poll ...... Zogby 47-43.... Clinton gets very slight bump

[aaaaaa5a]

This is only the first poll after the debate. But it shows Obama has survived so far.

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Zogby_Hillary_ahead_PA/2008/04/17/88947.html

[ruggerson]

1. Maybe Zogby's brother switched sides

[anonymous171]

2. Isn't zogby not very reliable?

[AX10]

3. They are of the worst pollster around.

They had Obama winning Cali by 13%.

[thewiseguy]

4. Obama lost Ca because of early voting

[ORDem]

11. 1/3 of CA votes were cast before Obama won SC and well before Zogby's poll.

He's always the worst pollster when his numbers show Obama close or ahead. :eyes:

[aaaaaa5a]

15. Zogby had a good reputation.....

Until this year they arguably could have been called the "gold standard of polling"

This year they have been behind other pollsters. It's strange. I don't know why? I guess they are having an off year.

They do deserve a break with their California poll. Although not well covered by the MSM, about 1/3 of California voting occurred early when Clinton was leading by 20 or more points. It is unscientific, but when early voting is factored in, it is highly unlikely Clinton won among voters who cast ballots on election day.


However to be fair... Zogby has missed other primaries where there was no viable excuse.

[BenDavid]

5. did obama pay zogby 20.00 for that poll?

[AX10]

6. Twenty bucks?

That's all? :rofl:

[rodeodance]

16. he could have least paid 30$ since he made 4. 2 MILLION in ONE yr!!

[mcctatas]

7. Even if it is from a zogby poll...

why the fuck are you linking from newsmax???

[quakerboy]

9. No Joke

Why would we filter through Newsmax?

[aaaaaa5a]

21. I'm not a big fan of Newsmax....

But I'm also against censorship. I check different sources from all circles of politics. Zogby is not considered a "right wing" pollster. And historically, they have a good reputation. (althought not this year)

The information is interesting, even if it happens to be posted first on a conservative site. That's why I included the link.

[AllentownJake]

8. All polls are bullshit in PA

10-13% of the electorate depending on who you talk to is not being polled because no one has the information on new registrations.

[JCMach1]

10. Ummmmm Zogby??? For whatever reason they always seem to oversample Obama's support

IF Zogby is saying 4pts, you can be sure that it's at least 10pts up for Hillary.

[thewiseguy]

12. Except for Ohio and California do you know of any other such instances?

[JCMach1]

20. NH, TX

Obama, an Illinois senator bidding to make history as the first black U.S. president, gained 11 points on Clinton to lead the one-time Democratic front-runner 39 percent to 29 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third with 19 percent.

"This is a breathtaking movement in Obama's direction," said pollster John Zogby. "It's a surge for Obama and movement away from Clinton."... http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0433304720080107


He also had Obama consistently tied or ahead in TX- http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_zogby_ohio_and_texas.php


Not saying it to disrupt... There are better polls out there this cycle... look at those. Don't know what Zogby has been smoking in '08, but I want some.

[thewiseguy]

22. Zogby had Hillary ahead in Texas and every poll had Obama ahead in NH

[JCMach1]

25. Not quite accurate-- he was all over the place in TX.

Today, Zogby released a new poll (taken Mar 1-3) that seems more in line with the other five polls.

Zogby's new poll puts Clinton and Obama both at 44%, a net gain of 2 points for Clinton.

Zogby did a new poll for Texas, too: yesterday's Zogby poll had Obama ahead 47%-45%; today's poll (March 1-3) has Clinton ahead 47% - 44%, a net gain of 6 points for Clinton.

I don't know what to make of this. Could the folks at Zogby have done something different in terms of their sampling or number crunching?

In January, Zogby caught heat for being one of the pollsters that mis-predicted the results of New Hampshire's primary: Zogby's poll put Clinton 12 points behind in that state, but she ended up winning by 2 points.

Zogby's pre-California poll also failed to pan out: it placed Clinton 13 points behind, and she ended up winning by 9 points.

Given that the two polls closest to today's Ohio primary show different winners (albeit by a small margin), at least one of Zogby's polls will turn out to be right.

I hope that no one will be dissuaded from voting today based on polls (or pundits) indicating that their candidate either has it locked up or doesn't have a chance... http://bucknakedpolitics.typepad.com/buck_naked_politics/2008/03/todays-zogby-po.html



My only point is take Zogby with a HIGH DEGREE of skepticism.

[thewiseguy]

27. I was not looking for a spin. Just giving you the info.

I remember that final day when they released their final Tx poll just like it was yesterday. Zogby actually had a phone interview with one of the local news and he mentioned specifically that Obama was losing ground in certain cities.

Hillary had a late surge in both Ohio and Texas. If you want to have an indication for what will happen in Pennsylvania then pay attention to the trends and not numbers.

The big number of undecided have broken for Hillary as of late. That accounts for some polling errors as well.

[JCMach1]

29. See my prediction #28

Hillary will do well, but I expect Obama to overperform his percentage on delegates. Remember, Hillary had trouble even getting a full slate of delegates lined up.

[thewiseguy]

24. You can look at this

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1461

[Cant trust em]

13. Four point spread.

Pretty close. A month ago it was a 20 point blowout by Clinton.

[FrenchieCat]

14. I agree......

Keeping expectations low is what we want to be doing anyways. So this is a perfect poll to me.

And why should the debate have hurt Obama, because he was attacked? How sorry.

[Cant trust em]

17. I hope that Pennsylvanians will have seen that

Even Gibson/Stephanapoulos concurred that they weren't paying much attention to Clinton. They were too busy attacking Obama. I'm biased so maybe I'm not the right person to ask if it was balanced or not, but I don't know anyone who isn't biased anymore.

[Muttocracy]

18. and those only total to 90%, and depending on the margin of error, may not mean much nt

[JCMach1]

28. The pattern has been when Obama has not done well in debates

,think before NH, and before TX/OH, late deciders have swung to Hillary. I don't see any reason to expect a different outcome this time.

My prediction: Hillary wins by 10, but because of proportionality only nets a handful of delegates. Does that end her candidacy? I take her at her word, she will contest until Puerto Rico.

[Danger Mouse]

19. aaaaaaa5a? what an...interesting...username.

[aaaaaa5a]

23. It is a strange username....

When I get more time I probably need to change it to something more conventional.

[Danger Mouse]

33. it might help...

[malik flavors]

26. If he keeps it to single digits I'd be happy.

[aaaaaa5a]

31. I think 10 points is where the spread is....

1)Single digits.... Win for Obama (Super-delegates move to Obama) and he finishes Clinton off in NC on May 6th.

2)10-15 points.... Although not enough to cut into Obama's pledged delegate lead she will build enough momentum to continue. This margin nets her a roughly 250,000 popular vote advantage. As flawed an argument as the popular vote race is, the MSM and the outstanding Clinton PR machine will allow her to advance.

3)15-20 points.... MSM begins to question if Obama can win post Wright/Ayers/Bitter-gate etc. Obama could still close the door with a closer than expected race in North Carolina. And he has Oregon coming up to offset big potential losses in WV and KY. Math vs Momentum argument takes "full flight."

4) 20 or more points... MSM has a field day on whether Obama can win "working class white voters." The "Bradley" effect takes center stage. North Carolina could be a nail biter. The debate really begins... pledged delegates vs popular vote and momentum. And we hear even more questions about... "what if Florida and Michigan are factored in?


So far the polls are showing a reasonably close race. Barring any post-debate fluctuations or the "Bradley effect" scenarios 1 or 2 appear most likely right now.

[Dbdmjs1022]

30. Hey, it's within the MOE (4.1%). I'll take that!

[aaaaaa5a]

32. I agree....

Everyone complains about Zogby's accuracy.

But the important element is... "what's the movement between each pollsters numbers?" This is because it can be assumed they are using the same methods each time.

The bottom line is "using the same polling method" Zogby has no statistical difference between the Pre and Post debate poll.

That's good news for Obama.