Last 3 PA polls: Rasmussen = Hillary +3%; Zogby = Hillary +4%; PPP = Obama +3%. Can we agree that

[Stop Cornyn]

(1) anything less than a 10% win for Hillary (who was often leading by 20% or more until recently) is a set back and (2) if she wins, it will be by 5% or less?

If Hillary supporters cannot agree that anything less than a 10% win for Hillary is a set back, can we at least agree that anything less than a 10% win for Hillary will be reported by the media as a devastating set back for her campaign?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html:

Rasmussen on 04/17 - 04/17 = Hillary 47-Obama 44
Zogby on 04/16 - 04/17 = Hillary 47-Obama 43
PPP on 04/14 - 04/15 = Hillary 42- Obama 45

[AtomicKitten]

1. I agree it probably will be close either way.

[LSK]

2. a 10 point win gets her about 17 delegates

Which is most likely to be erased after NC.

[Kittycat]

29. I don't think so. He can pick up more delegates in his strongholds

and then split her in hers.

[MercutioATC]

3. I'm sticking with Clinton +9.

And yes, that would be an overall loss for her because of her current delegate deficit.

[tekisui]

6. Clinton 6 or less.

[MercutioATC]

7. I'll go further...Indiana, Clinton +5...NC, Obama +13.

...my magic 8-ball says so...

[Stop Cornyn]

9. I'm thinking Clinton by 4%. Followed by Obama wins in NC (big) and Indiana (modest) and then Hillary

withdraws.

[quantass]

27. .

[featherman]

4. To the media, a win is a win (see Texas) and they move on

It's the SD's and other knowledgeable insiders that will sift through the results with care

[tekisui]

5. Agreed. Where are the Undecided 10-15% going to break?

[Stop Cornyn]

11. I expect undecideds to break close to 50%-50%

[quantass]

8. I am still going with a 10-15pt win for Hillary despite my hopefuls on those Polls

because of the undecideds and the polls tendency to show things tight as the voting date approaches (my hypothesis is that they do this to stur up talk in the media despite things being wider).

I would like to hear hints of "internal" polls by both sides....so far what i see is Hillary seems in a painicky mode while Obama seems very controlled and focused and determined.

[Warren Stupidity]

10. Anything less than a +10 Obama win

will result in a prolonged death march by the Clinton campaign. I am convinced that they cannot be convinced that they are in fact 'dead yet'.

[quantass]

14. Sad, but true

[Stop Cornyn]

16. She can't be convinced that she's dead, but there comes a point where the un pledged superdelgates

smell the whiff of a corpse.

[ORDem]

19. Not really. Once Obama gets the PD majority she's toast. That should

happen by the Oregon primary. The SDs will then come over in droves to O.

:dem:

[Diane R]

12. Clinton needs to win by 20+%. Six weeks ago she was up by 26%.

[BuyingThyme]

13. I agree that ugly is about to get hideous.

[hogwyld]

15. Hillary wins by 10-12%

Amd the MSM will claim another Clinton comeback.

[Tribetime]

17. man those were the national numbers 1 month ago

and pa. was 15-20 points during the middle of you know

[ORDem]

18. The trend is Obama's friend (as usual). n/t

:kick:

[davidpdx]

20. I agree anything less then 10 is a setback

Personally I think she'll win with a margin of 5-8%. There are still a lot of undecided votes. Also note that RCL Average had Clinton winning Ohio by 7.1 and she won by 10.1 (+3). That's why I'm going with the margin I predicted.

Then again, I said Wisconsin would be close. It's a good think I'm not betting money on anything.

[earthlover]

21. Hillary has to win ALL of the remaining contests by 20+% to even tie Obama

PA is the largest of the few remaining contests. If Hillary only wins PA by 10%, that means that she would have to win by an even greater percentage in the remaining states. Quite frankly, even if Hillary wins Pa by 20% she STILL has a tough row to hoe. Winning by 10%? Too little, too late. It is sorta like a 40 foot three point shot in the last five seconds of a six point deficit game. Good shot, but too little, too late.

[Stop Cornyn]

22. Ain't gonna happen. Moreover, PA is her only shot. If she doesn't win PA by 20% (but wins by 5% to

10%, she needs to sweep everything else by 25%, then if she doesn't win NC, but loses by 5% to 10%, she needs to sweep everything else by 35% to 40%. It's just mathematically impossible unless she wins PA by a landslide (which is itself mathematically impossible).

[crankychatter]

23. sticking my fingers in my ears and chanting "la la la la la la"

...

[Gore1FL]

24. She needs a 50% lead to close the gap.

and somewhat weather NC.

This was over after WI, and it still is.

[PM7nj]

25. She could win 100% in PA and she would still be 6 delegates behind.

[kwenu]

26. Reality doesn't need agreement but it's nice that you are asking them.

[Blondiegrrl]

28. I'm going to err on the side of caution and give Hillary a win of 7 to 9 percent.

Regardless, it would still be a disappointment to her campaign.

[TheDonkey]

30. At the end of the day a .oooo1% win is a WIN for Hillary

but it still won't MATTER. Obama will be cruising to the nomination and Hillary will be biting his ankle all the way.

I just hope the super delegates wake up and mobilize.