Obama will be the bitter one at the end of this campaign

[TacticalPeek]

Obama will be the bitter one at the end of this campaign

JOHN B. JUDIS
GUEST COLUMNIST

Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama's recent fundraising speech in San Francisco. But that's wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can't carry Florida -- and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win 45 to 48 percent of the white working-class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

Some Democrats insist Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters "clinging" to guns, religion, abortion and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class' relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.

Many white working class voters in these states used to be loyal Democrats. The last two successful Democratic presidential candidates, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, swept Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Many of these voters have always been highly patriotic, church-going hunters who were skeptical about the benefits of trade and immigration and -- what Obama did not mention -- black political assertiveness. But they still distrust Republicans as the defenders of business and look up to Democrats (or at least some Democrats) as being more in tune with average Americans like themselves.

more
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/359670_obama20.html

Plausible analysis.

[2rth2pwr]

1. It's Hillary Time.

[PBS Poll-435]

5. This was my prediction yesterday....Seems to be holding up so far

:hide:

[2rth2pwr]

9. "Flamebait Edition" LOL!

[PBS Poll-435]

13. Seemed an appropriate joke at the time...

But now...

Am I the next great pollster?

HAHAHA

:spank:

[JoFerret]

24. How is that flamebait?

Only to flamers.
It is an analysis that is all too possible. The GE has a different set of voters in play.

[PBS Poll-435]

26. :-)

I have hope and dreams that Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States of America.

[TacticalPeek]

34. Yep - keep on truckin'.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5578726&mesg_id=5578726





:)

[thoughtcrime1984]

2. John "Judis"??

Bill Richardson's cousin? :rofl:

[shadowknows69]

3. Yep

Attempt at cool pen name?: FAIL!

[TacticalPeek]

12. Visiting scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, etc.

Bibliography:

* William F. Buckley, Jr.: Patron Saint of the Conservatives (1988)
* Grand Illusion: Critics and Champions of the American Century (1992)
* The Paradox of American Democracy: Elites, Special Interests, and the Betrayal of the Public Trust, (2000)
* The Emerging Democratic Majority (with Ruy Teixeira) (2002)
* The Folly of Empire : What George W. Bush Could Learn from Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson (2004)

[shadowknows69]

15. Get out!

That's his real name? Or at least real pen name? I was sure it was something the author made up for the column. I sit corrected.

[Happyhippychick]

4. I don't think that history is a predictor of anything in this election - this *is* history in the

making.

[Taxmyth]

6. Just finished reading that piece in the SPI

and I think it is right on target. Barack Obama cannot win the G/E. Call it racism, call it a lack of experience or call it what you will, if the Democratic Party nominee is Barack Obama then the Democratic Party loses another election they were supposed to win.

[ej510]

10. Well I guess that McCain will be president then because Hillary cannot win the general election and

you can believe that!

[Taxmyth]

25. I don't believe that

Senator Clinton CAN pull over a significant percentage of over 1/2 of the demographic that defines Republican voters and Senator Obama cannot. That demographic is women voters and they WILL vote for a Senator Clinton in a significant percentage. Senator Obama does not have that draw, at all.

Edited to correct a spelling error

[Mooney]

37. Not a chance.

Hillary Clinton will never, ever win the general election. She's as unpopular today as she was in 1992, if not more so. She can't win independents and she sure as hell can't win Republicans. Whatever arguments she wants to make for herself are absolutely laughable, but are only more so if her opponent is John McCain. Experience? He buries her. National security credentials? He buries her. Getting shot at? He was actually telling the truth. Toughness? He was tortured for five years.

Anyone who thinks that Hillary Clinton is an electable general election candidate needs to stop drinking so heavily.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

7. I live in Florida. Florida has a GOP gov, GOP legislature, GOP miami Cuban mafia...

A GOP everything.

Plus, isn't the writer of this article, GOP?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

28. Kerry and Gore actually won in 2000 and 2004. We have a Dem. Senator.

(Bill Nelson) and we also had Bob Graham.

Before Jeb - we had quite a few Dem Governors.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

36. Pretty shocking given that Florida is filled with redneck Repubs and Miami-Cuban mafioso Repubs

I don't think Florida is a great Democratic state, really. The laws being passed here and bills brought up for voting on are just a tad short of fascist.

[blm]

8. Judis skipped a HUGELY IMPORTANT FACTOR - American people are more aware of GOP's policies

and that McCain cheerleaded for Bush - the president they now are certain has been a disaster for this country and for their family's economic welfare.

Has Judis been asleep since Schiavo and Katrina?

[TacticalPeek]

19. Perhaps you did not bother to read the article you are commenting on:

Democrats have won over these voters when their advantage on the economy has come to the fore. And they've lost these voters when their positions on the economy -- or national security -- were not sufficiently compelling to overcome the Republican advantage on social issues like abortion, gay marriage or gun control. Why? Because with the exception of a few rabid single-issue voters, the white working class hasn't simply displaced its economic anxiety, or bitterness, onto God, guns, and gay marriage; they're actually quite concerned about the economy.

Historically, there are three circumstances in which Democrats have been able to win over these voters:

You should read about them - The Unacceptable Republican, The Acceptable Democrat, and The Empathetic Democrat.

[blm]

20. This is STILL a whole different ballgame. GOP policies have NEVER been so exposed

as being as anti-working and anti-middle class as they are now.

[BlueJac]

11. Nice try...........

:rofl:


Hello......wake up!!!


I love the activists don't you?

[JackBeck]

14. Completely delusional.

And not just the author of this dreck.

[Olney Blue]

16. Let's hope Judis is dead wrong, or we are fuc&ed.

[oasis]

17. Hate to see McCain win it all, but the Obama faithful need to see the fruits of

their stubborness. Maybe they'll listen if there ever is a next time.:argh:

[donheld]

31. Doesn't that go both ways?

The Hillary faithful have never been a stubborn bunch now have they. :eyes:

[stillcool]

38. How's Hillary doing?

[my3boyz]

18. McCain is not going to win VA. VA is going to turn BLUE for Obama...

[depakid]

39. Unlikely, unless he implodes

which may not be all that unlikely.

[Bensthename]

21. Only one problem with this article.. Every Obama beating like this one has been proven wrong..

Wright-gate was the end of Obama.. Bitter - will be the end of Obama.. He can not win in the north.. Etc,, Etc,,

Keep dreaming people.. No one has a reliable crystal ball and that has been proven time after time when it comes to Obama..

His supporters are solid, love throwing money at him and everywhere he goes the polls go up for him.. He has sweeped states and won over people that werent supposed go for him.

This article is nothing more then a warm fuzzy for the GOP.

[bowens43]

22. More ignorance , oh well it's all the hill people have

[featherman]

23. Not a "San Francisco fundraiser" not that this bozo cares about facts

[JeffR]

27. Why not explain why you think this is a plausible analysis, as you describe it?

Or are you more interested in just posting unconvincing opinion pieces and hoping they get perceived as fact?

Which is it, then? And why? Why is this your approach? What is it you're trying to put forward here?

[Hepburn]

29. IMO: Probable bullshit. n/t

[EFerrari]

30. Bullshit. People are switching their registration to Democrat in droves.

And they are doing it to get on the Obama bandwagon.

[CatnHat]

32. Many

democrats have switched--but all for Obama. Three of my close relations have switched from republican to vote for Hillary. Obama will loose quite a few independents and democrats in the GE, if he is the nominee. That's a fact. The GE has a different electorate. The GE will be run on character issues, always has. That's a real problem for Obama. Winning republican states in primaries is not a barometer winning in the GE. Those states will vote republican, don't be so naive to think otherwise.

[EFerrari]

33. Again, bullshit. You want to talk about the Keating Five?

Character differences? What about the prostitutes that McCain boasts about in his bio?

That's just rich.

lol

[Arugula Latte]

35. Yeeahh- no.

[IsItJustMe]

40. More right wing msm bull shit. Fuck them all.

[Straight Shooter]

41. How is Obama going to win Virginia if the GOP links him to the MoveOn General Betray Us ad?

MoveOn supports Obama.

Jim Webb voted to condemn MoveOn. There's a reason for that, and I think it has something to do not only with his own personal sentiments, but the sentiments of Virginia voters.

Virginia will be just as tough on Hillary, who voted nay, citing MoveOn's First Amendment rights.

Obama did not show up to vote, he verbally dismissed the importance of the issue, which may well be viewed as indifference to the outrage of those who were offended by the ad.