I'm nervous about the PA polls.

[PM7nj]

I know I’m going to be jumped on, but I think the SUSA poll might have something to it. The PA SUSA poll has only 3% undecided with a 14% Clinton lead. All the other polls have about 10% undecided with a ~5% Clinton lead. I went back and looked at the California polls, and found the same things. SUSA had very little undecided, and a large Clinton lead. All the other polls had about 10% undecided and Obama ahead or only slightly behind.

I don’t mean to be negative, but I think Clinton still has a big lead in PA. SUSA was spot on in California and I think they may be in PA too. The polling is just so similar.

Please, someone tell me I am terribly wrong and being stupid.

[Coexist]

1. sorry, can't.

I learned my lesson in CA.

[Boz]

60. California was an anomaly, the polls were close to the vote of the day

The problem is there were 8 weeks of prevoting in the bag for hillary. Obama didn't start to creep forward and roll in until just two weeks before the primary, had it been 10 days later it would have been a different world and he would have over taken the built in prevote(from late novmber and december.

[Obamaniac]

67. Boz is right

People don't understand what happened in California. The results on election day were actually tied (if not a small lead --- less than one percent --- for Obama), but the results from the WEEKS of mail in and advance votes (which represented one-third of the entire vote) went for Hillary in a big way.

As a result she won the race by 8 percent.

[Boz]

70. I personally know 7 people that sent theirs in the mail and would have changed it to Obama

by the day of the primary, he just wasn't known to them in December when they sent their vote in. Many of them will vote for him in the fall.

[Tatiana]

2. I think Obama will close the gap to 5-6 points.

Clinton will win. But not receive any significant delegate advantage. Relax :)

[anonymous171]

3. She's going to win by 5-9 points.

[DemsUnited]

68. hope you're right because that is a very bad result for Hillary

After going completely negative, with a huge assist from ABC, and having the Pennsylvania Democratic Machine in her pocket courtesy of Ed Rendell, anything less than 15%+ is not going to get her the delegates, popular vote, or face-saving reason to take this to the convention.

[Tribetime]

4. doesn't matter what happens in pa. it will be over in N.C.

[DearAbby]

5. How wide was the gap 4 weeks ago?

Obama has done very well closing that gap. What is with all this hand wringing?

[democrat2thecore]

6. You may very well be right.

But, remember, Obama's nomination is not dependent on a PA win. A ten point Obama loss isn't too bad considering he was 29 points down just 21 days ago.

Pennsylvania's an odd state though politically. Hard to poll, hard to figure out....we don't have much longer to wait.

[babylonsister]

7. Que sera sera. What happens, will. Onward! But this is promising:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5573547

[FrenchieCat]

8. So don't worry about polls.....

Just make your calls, and write your LTTEs.

In other words, don't focus so much on polls...that's dangerous.

Watch the Youtube coverage, etc... don't rely on regular TV (other than Local) or look at too many polls.

[quantass]

9. Sadly i think you are absoutely correct. -- damn, so this thing goes till May 6

:shrug:

[PM7nj]

24. That's why I'm "concerned"... I want her to go away.... NOW

I guess I can wait another 2 weeks... ick.

Of course now people think I'm an undercover Hillary agent.

[madfloridian]

10. Cell phones...

Big unknown.

[quantass]

12. But Cali's have cell phones -- I think

[Blondiegrrl]

25. I read that same argument in favor of John Kerry winning 4 years ago.

Sorry to burst your balloon.

(Hopefully, I'm way wrong.)

[DeeDeeNY]

71. Umm, Kerry did not lose

http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/1970/

[madfloridian]

34. They don't poll cell phones. Many younger only have a cell phone.

In fact two of our older neighbors only have cell phones now, and they do not give their numbers out except to friends.

From Pew Polls:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

"The picture is not entirely positive, however. While the cell-only problem is currently not biasing polls based on the entire population, it may very well be damaging estimates for certain subgroups in which the use of only a cell phone is more common. This concern is particularly relevant for young adults. According to the most recent government estimate, more than 25% of those under age 30 use only a cell phone. An analysis of young people ages 18-25 in one of the Pew polls found that the exclusion of the cell-only respondents resulted in significantly lower estimates of this age group's approval of alcohol consumption and marijuana use. Perhaps not surprisingly, excluding the cell-only respondents also yields lower estimates of technological sophistication. For example, the overall estimate for the proportion of 18-25 year olds using social networking sites is 57% when the cell-only sample is blended with the landline sample, while the estimate based only on the landline sample is 50%.

Including a cell-only sample with a traditional landline-based poll is feasible, as the four studies conducted last year indicate. But even if feasible, cell-only surveys are considerably more difficult and expensive to conduct than landline surveys. Federal law prohibits the use of automated dialing devices when calling cell phones so each number in the cell phone sample must be dialed manually. It also is common practice to provide respondents with a small monetary incentive to offset the cost of the airtime used during the interview. And the screening necessary to reach cell-only respondents among all of those reached on a cell phone greatly increases the effort needed to complete a given number of interviews. Pew estimates that interviewing a cell-only respondent costs approximately four to five times as much as a landline respondent."

[tridim]

11. After watching Bill Maher I think they're all under-sampling Republican crossovers for Obama.

[ladywnch]

22. PA is a closed primary. Reps can't vote in it n/t

[kwenu]

13. How many times are we going to see this "I'm worried" routine from an alleged Obama supporter?

Haven't you worn this stupid routine out? Suppose Hillary wins by 17. Not a shitten ass thing will change.

[PM7nj]

18. I knew people were going to get mad at me...

...sorry I'm just not getting my hopes up.

[kwenu]

26. Geez. This is like fricken deja vu. We've literally had this conversation before.

It's Friday night. Have a drink. You'll feel better.

[smalll]

61. Don't let it get to you. I'm convinced, if a DUer were Captain of the Titanic,

and one of his young officers came up to him that fatal night to say "Um, there's an iceberg right out there" the only answer would be --

"CONCERN TROLL!" --

(They wouldn't even get AROUND to re-arranging the deck-chairs!)

[AllentownJake]

14. Everyone of those polls are bullshit

Because they ignore 400,000 people or 10% of the electorate in PA that just became democratic voters. If you changed your registration to vote in February or March I'd say your highly likley to vote.

[NC_Nurse]

15. Don't worry. NC is here for ya!

:hi:

[PM7nj]

23. Good point. I think I'm just sick of her...

I really want her to go away. A win or even a small loss would end it for her. I'm just not sure if it will happen.

[thoughtcrime1984]

33. That's cool that your state will get to deal the KO blow.

Who woulda thunk it? :)

[sandnsea]

16. Unless she wins by 15, she is still behind

That's all that matters. She gain 7 delegates with her big win in Ohio. There just aren't enough left for her to get more delegates than Obama. If the Clintons would quit lying about it, this thing would be over and we could get on with beating McCrazy.

[bilgewaterbill]

17. You sound concerned. If it helps, "You are terribly wrong and stupid!"

[PM7nj]

20. Thanks :)

[bilgewaterbill]

40. Listen, anytime I can call you stupid and make you feel better, call me.

[cliffordu]

19. Right - well, calm down if you can.....worst case scenario

is that Hillary hangs on till the money runs out or she collapses under the weight of her own Hubris...


The longer this goes on the worse she gets hurt, and it's her that's doing all the damage -

She runs the risk of making herself unelectable for anything ever again.

Someone needs to tell her that.

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. I personally am dreading April 22. DREADING IT.

I have a dental appointment.

:P

[la la]

39. well- I can do you one better----

I have a gyno appointment!

:crazy:

[FlyingSquirrel]

45. I'd trade ya but, um, I can't.

Man I hope I never have a proctologist appointment...

:wow:

[yodermon]

48. hmm how old are ya

your time will come
:hurts:

[k8conant]

56. Me too...

:nopity:

[Stinky The Clown]

27. It doesn't matter .......

..... there is NO likely scenario under which she wins the nomination.

[The_Casual_Observer]

28. That would be hilarious after obama has spent so much time & money.

[RBInMaine]

32. She has longtime machine and entrenched demographics support. She'll win, BUT by singles #'s.

[The_Casual_Observer]

35. Naturally it would have nothing to do with more people voting for Hillary.

[Frank Booth]

29. I think she'll win Pennsylvania by around 10.

Survey USA has been pretty accurate this year, and she's got the institutional support with Rendell and Nutter. I'd be very surprised if Obama got within 5.

Not that it really matters. I don't think she'd drop out even if she lost Pennsylvania, and assuming she wins by 10 points she'll only pick up a few delegates.

[RBInMaine]

30. Remember, CA had early voting. Polls are tough. If holds her to 10 points or less that's GOOD !

[Gore1FL]

31. unless huge =50%

there is really nothing to see here.

She is so done, I t isnt even funny...actually it is pretty sad.

[Political Heretic]

36. SurveyUSA is not special. You need to look at RCP's poll AVERAGE:

RCP Average 04/08 to 04/17 - 48.0 42.4 Clinton +5.6

That averages these polls together:

Rasmussen 04/17 - 04/17 730 LV 47 44 Clinton +3.0
Zogby 04/16 - 04/17 602 LV 47 43 Clinton +4.0
PPP (D) 04/14 - 04/15 1095 LV 42 45 Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA 04/12 - 04/14 638 LV 54 40 Clinton +14.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 04/10 - 04/14 623 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/11 - 04/13 576 LV 49 40 Clinton +9.0
Quinnipiac 04/09 - 04/13 2,103 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Franklin & Marshall 04/08 - 04/13 367 LV 49 42 Clinton +7.0

[BenDavid]

37. believe it, is all I can say. B Hussein Obama needs to get beat

so bad it will make him hurt...but I will take a 2% win because that shows me that obama cannot win the general. If he loses 7 of the last 10 that too will show that obama cannot win. usually the one that is crowned like b hussein obama is and still cannot win em all says a lot about him plus it says a lot about the people that see obama as i see him and agree he is not worthy to be the nominee....

the democratic leadership I perceive would rather lose this campaign with obama then win it with hrc. For some reason these folks have an antipathy towards hrc...maybe the superdelegates will save this party from going down to another defeat and the dems be lost in the woods for the next 16 years.

we had the chance to win this election but old b hussein obama had to come in and "unite us"..and boy, has he ever united us.......

[RBInMaine]

42. So, another HillFAN using the right wing "Hussein" thing. What's wrong with his name? SAD BIGOTRY!

[Eric Condon]

50. Another Hillbot "blaming" Obama for all this because he "had to come in" and let democracy work.

I know democracy's tough when you're expecting a coronation, but don't blame Obama (or "B. Hussein Obama," as you so race-baitingly call him) for the fact that people gravitate toward him because they've HAD it with the Clinton's triangulating, manipulative bullshit. How about blaming Hillary? She's the one who's run a terrible campaign, full of all the indignity and ugliness of the Rovian playbook coupled with gross mismanagement that should give more than a little insight into how well her administration would be run.

But yeah, nice try there with the race-baiting. Those of us who are real Democrats are sick of it. Hillbots like you have been getting talking points from Coulter for too long. Give it a rest.

[dchill]

54. B Hussein Obama seems to bother you more...

than he bothers anyone else (who is left) around here. Why is that? Hmmm?

[Hippo_Tron]

65. You've already stated you will vote for McCain over Obama, what are you still doing here?

[democrat2thecore]

73. You would think YOU - of all people - would be beyond the bigotry.

Never again, means NEVER AGAIN. To ANYBODY.

[democrattotheend]

74. This Jew agrees 100%

And I know BenDavid has been here for years (I am ashamed to say I remember respecting him for being one of the few to defend Lieberman, whom I never supported but thought was the victim of some anti-Semitic attacks here at DU). But with his attitude this season, I can't believe he has not been tombstoned already.

[Arugula Latte]

76. Keep alerting on him.

I do. :hi:

[crankychatter]

38. nobody knows.... breathe in, breathe out

they don't poll cell phones or newly registered voters

Clinton's negatives are skyrocketing

people are coming to terms with reality

Obama will win even if they vote for Clinton...

AND they know the process is hurting us... because of the negativity

SO... this is what they call "momentum"

it will work in Obama's favor... her perceived "incumbency" and his representation of "change"

it's gonna be ok

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. How far off was SUSA in CA?

[PM7nj]

43. Their last poll had Clinton 52%, Obama 42%

Final result was 51% Clinton, 43% Obama.

[Cha]

44. So the majority is going for all that

negative shit of hers? It's so hard to believe when I see all the people who are behind Obama in PA.

[panAmerican]

46. I want Obama to win, however slim the margin, but I've set my expectations lower than the polls.

[DianaForRussFeingold]

47. Obama was greeted by the largest crowd of his campaign Friday night in Philadelphia.

:dem: I WILL PROUDLY VOTE FOR OBAMA, ON TUESDAY!

Obama said "After years of a government that didn't listen to them, or speak for them,
or represent their hopes and their dreams,
a few humble colonists came to Philadelphia to declare their independence
from the tyranny of the British throne."

"Eleven million more Americans don’t have healthcare, two million more Americans are out of work, millions of families are facing foreclosure,
the poverty rate has gone up, you are working harder for less, you are paying more for tuition, you’re paying more for groceries, more at the pump,” Obama

[tishaLA]

49. I've said 8% since the beginning

I am hoping for closer--and there is something that tells me the Obama campaign knows something--but I am going to stick with 8% and hope for the best.

[TwilightGardener]

51. Why be nervous? He's not expected to win PA. The expectations

are all on how big Hillary's win will be.

[Myoho]

52. Get over it

As long as a Democrat wins... I am good with it.

[Secret_Society]

53. SUSA has been pretty accurate...

at least compared to other polls (but I don't put much weight in any of them). Late deciders have broken Clinton and I expect that trend to continue in PA.

[writes3000]

55. You know who's been unbelievably accurate? The Obama campaign itself...

Remember Tim Russert reading off Obama's campaigns internal numbers for the primaries and caucuses after Super Tuesday?

They've been amazingly accurate.

And if I remember correctly, they predicted PA would be a Clinton win by 5%.

If they are right again, I will be doing a dance in my living room.

[Joe the Revelator]

57. Clinton is going to win PA soundly

As expected...

[usregimechange]

58. wasn't that poll about a week ago?

[stillcool]

59. Clinton is supposed to win by 20+

I'm just going to watch what happens..and enjoy the ever-loving shit out of it!!

[jackson_dem]

62. The polls are trending to O. If that keeps up he will win

The bonus this could provide Clinton is this will raise expectations for Obama. If he loses despite outspending her 3:1 that will be bad news for him, despite the denial from Obamites. The common excuse has been "he was never expected to win PA". Well, the latest polls have changed that.

Rasmussen H 47, O 44 (O goes from -9 to -3--which is within the margin of error)
Zogby H 47, O 43 (O lost 3 points but he is still within striking distance and presumably the margin of error since this is a tracking poll)
PPP O 45, H 42 (O went from -3 to +3)
LA Times H 46, O 41 (well within striking distance especially when you consider the trend toward Obama)

Only Survey USA and ARG, which have Clinton up 14 and 20, show her with large leads. Every other poll has Obama either leading, within the margin of error, or just shy of the margin of error. Given the trend if things stay the same he should win.

The one thing that should be remembered is Clinton almost always does the best with voters who decide within the final 3 days or the final day. Given the fact Obama has never broken the 45% mark in Pennsylvania that bodes well for her.

[GoesTo11]

63. I'm nervous that they're setting Obama expectations too high again

[intaglio]

64. The only people worried about PA is Hillary's campaign

The shrill Hillary supporters are not, of course, because they are down to the last 20%.

Just like dubya

[JCMach1]

66. That's what my spidey sense is telling me too HRC

8-15% ... I don't believe it will resolve anything as Obama will do just fine in the delegate count with the proportional allocation.

Hillary will narrow his lead by a few delegates, but that's it (Hillary +10-15 delegates).

I have been on the ground in PA the last 5 days and I don't see any groundswell for Obama outside of televisions buys. Both Murtha and Rendell have cut some very strong ads for Hillary (especially Murtha's)). Obama's Casey ad is good, but not great.

I have seen 1 Obama sign my whole trip. In fact, there are more Ron Paul signs around Pittsburgh than Obama. There have been dozens of Hillary signs. However, I am sure Obama is concentrating his efforts on Philly (where he should do quite well).

[TragedyandHope]

69. Winning PA has never been in the cards

Obama's campaign team has plotted all out the states far in advance. A PA victory does not figure into their strategy. Of course, they're working to narrow the gap, but they have their eyes on the real prize. They can afford to lose a battle and still win the war.

I think there will be irresistible pressure on Clinton to drop out after NC. The Superdelegates and other party leaders see which way the wind is blowing. She's quickly running out of money and bridges to burn, so I think she will have no choice but face reality after May 6.

[marshall]

72. Don't worry about it, Hillary's in til the bitter (and I do mean BITTER) end either way

Win or lose in PA or any other state or territory, she's in until the convention, where she will be strong arming superdelegates and trying to convince pledged delegates that they aren't really pledged. She'll use code words to intimate that a black man is not electrable. She will hold on with every fiber of strength she can muster.

[AlinPA]

75. It will be close; if Clinton wins by one vote, the media will treat it like a landslide.

[Aussie leftie]

77. I'd love to say "read'em and weep"

but I dont want to be nasty.

[JeanGrey]

78. It doesn't matter.