New Zogby 4/19: Clinton increasing Lead in PA - Obama collapsing? - Taken entirely after the debate

[Skip Intro]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1484

Clinton 47, Obama 42

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Pollster John Zogby: "Undecideds are down to 8% and they have slowly begun to break for Clinton. Obama slipped in the one-day sample to only 40%. His lead in the eastern part of the state is still in double-digits but slipping, and his huge advantage among young voters is narrowing a bit. Clinton has a 39-point lead among Catholics and a 19 point lead among whites. She continues to get higher marks on 'understanding Pennsylvania' and handling the economy."

This latest Newsmax/Zogby two-day tracking poll shows Clinton had a good day in central Pennsylvania, where she has moved ahead of Obama by 20 points, a significant improvement over earlier polling. In western Pennsylvania, she continues to enjoy a solid lead, while Obama continues to enjoy a double-digit lead in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia.

Clinton has also been able to minimize her disadvantage among men while maintaining a solid lead among women. And she has closed the gap among likely Democratic primary voters age 35 to 54—a key demographic in this race. Voters younger than age 35 heavily favor Obama, while voters older than 54 strongly favor Clinton.


...


Clinton was also seen as the candidate who better understands Pennsylvania—56% said as much, while just 29% said Obama better understands the state, this most recent polling showed.
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[Unsane]

1. Is Hillary heavily favored in PA? No doubt about it.

She's expected to win big there. Can she do it?

[Skip Intro]

9. Oh, I think so.

Would love to see if the post-debate polls in IN and NC show any erosion of support for Obama.

[rocktivity]

12. She'll have to get at least 85% of the vote to win big.

She'll have to get at least 65% of the vote to win.

She'll have to get at least 55% of the vote just to justify hanging on.

And not just in PA, but in ALL TEN of the remaining contests, or she can kiss her special appeal to the superdelegates goodbye.

Unfortunately, the force is not with her.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Skip Intro]

15. From what I hear, she'll have to win by 129% just to justify staying in the country.

:rofl:

[rocktivity]

18. DU-zy!

Unless it's against the rules to nominate a response to your own post...

:rofl:
rocknation

[Skip Intro]

22. cool.

thanks!

[global1]

2. And Who Was It That Had 35,000 People Show Up To Hear Him Speak......

at the foot of Independence Hall?

[speedoo]

5. Yeah, that's some "collpase" huh? nt

[Petrushka]

19. Pickpockets? --- (**shrug**) --- Just kiddin' . . . don't hit, don't hit! . . . (**ouch**) ---

[Zachstar]

3. Still under 10. Tho at this point we mise well throw the polls out.

[anonymous171]

4. After her win Obama should attack her relentlessly.

[natrat]

8. totally she and her crew are beyond despicable and deserve to be perverbially clobered

[Zachstar]

Lets not start thinking about that too much yet.

Yes I said the same thing after Ohio. However, Research and reporting is finding Obama support in many places unexpected. And polling has shown itself to be VERY bad this year. (I just discovered that the national poll done by one of em based stuff off of just 1000 people)

Tho if Clinton manages to somehow surge past 10 points that maybe again it is a sign that it is time to for obama to stop showing restraint. because if people are responding to that sham of a debate then I think Obama ought to have another and spend it exposing Clinton politically left and right.

I'm serious I am not afraid for Obama to go on the negative if voters demand it. Tho for now I think it is just bad polling and Obama support will show itself come the primary.

Hope everyone!

[GoldieAZ49]

6. Shocking!!!

calling voters bible thumping gun toting bigots isn't playing well?

who could have known?

[Red Zelda]

14. Have you ever lived in Pa.?

Ever?

[MattBaggins]

28. You know it is a non issue

or comments about "screw them" would have an even bigger effect.

[demwing]

33. You've been eating too much RW talk radio

It's ok, just tap the little button that says FM, and never again touch the AM button. A diet of nothing but Rush, Hannity, O'Reilly, and Beck is empty of moral-fibre, high in fat headedness, and devoid of vitamin C-the truth.

But, if you give up fast food sound bites, and take on a daily regimen of mental aerobics, you stand every chance of dropping all the political weight you're carrying in support of Hillary.

Can you do it? I'm voting for hope!

[JBoy]

7. Woohoo!! Just 15 points more, and she'll have the 20 point margin she needs!!

[NJSecularist]

10. A Newsmax poll?

The Clinton supporters really love Newsmax, don't they? :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[DerekJ]

11. 5 points?!! Awesome!!!

5 points will probably net her 7 or so delegates if not less. When it comes to her last chance to make a ding in his popular vote, she might as well pack and leave.

[slinkerwink]

13. So that's a 3% break for Clinton

Comparing three polls with a 200 sample and getting a trend out of a two point movement? The margin of error for the whole 600 sample is 4.1% for chrissake. Each of the 200 samples should have about a 7% margin of error. He's calling a TWO POINT DRIFT IN POLLS WITH A 7% MARGIN OF ERROR A "BREAK".

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks for posting this, Skip Intro

Good information.

Today, Clinton +5
Yesterday, Clinton +4
Day Before, Clinton +1

Hardly a collapse, but it shows a trend. Senator Clinton should win Pennsylvania by less than 10 percentage points.

:thumbsup:

[jenmito]

17. Obama started his 5 day train tour on the 18th. He will catch up. n/t

[Austinitis]

20. See also recent Gallup Poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106606/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-46-Obama-45.aspx

I love it. Looks like America saw something it didn't like: Obama.

[thewiseguy]

21. ....

Guess America saw something on the previous months that it did not like! Hillary

[Robbins]

23. Zogby

When It was closer It was not relable but since It shows 3 points bumb for her It now Is? All the time I see double standards by Clinton supporters.Of course It many of us whould listen to people like them we would have stayed home.

[jenmito]

25. I like this one better. It will be easier to beat expectations.

[dana_b]

24. Ouch!!

People do care about crap like wedge issues. I don't get that line of thinking, but obviously I'm in the minority.

[bigdarryl]

26. OH JESUS!!!! your believing a poll from Zogby this guy has the same story the weekend before....

a primary. Hillary is pulling away always on a Saturday and Sunday. Or Obama is pulling away in NH on the Saturday and Sunday before the primary and he predicted a 15 point win for Obama in that state. I'm not believing shit from this guy. he was so off he now has teamed up with News Max.

[SoCalDem]

27. Newsmax/Zogby.. told me all I needed to know n/t

[2rth2pwr]

29. This can't be?!!? Everytime Obama fucks up he goes up in the polls!

[la la]

31. it's because the American public

has been trained by the inept bush maladministration. What else can you expect? 'We' like pain......and expect it.

sad

[cottonseed]

30. 47 C 42 O is enough to knock her out of the race.

It's a 30 point lead absolutely clobbered by Obama. This state in a few weeks will look just like California -- with Obama leading in the polls and most Hillary voters regretting their decision.

[yellowcanine]

32. Huh? A 5 point gap is hardly significant movement and I thought Zogby was officially "unreliable".

Course that was yesterday.

[AllentownJake]

34. That's awesome

Considering we were down by 25 when we started in March.

GOBAMA