Zogby: PA Undecideds don't like Clinton or Obama - Could mean Obama win if strong GOTV

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

Pollster John Zogby: "Okay, so let's play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided. He picked up a few more points in Philadelphia and the east, where he has been leading, in the central state area, and up-ticked a bit with men. Clinton seems to have added a few points in the Pittsburgh region. But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama. They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election. If this small group of white/Catholic undecideds do not vote, Obama can win Pennsylvania if he is able to get out his base of young voters, African American voters, and Very Liberal voters. If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story. Too soon to tell."

As Zogby mentions, this latest Newsmax/Zogby two-day tracking poll shows Obama had a good day in eastern Pennsylvania, where he campaigned at several stops. Meanwhile, Clinton retains a big lead in western Pennsylvania and a sturdy lead in central Pennsylvania, including the state capital of Harrisburg.

But in every demographic group, the race has become remarkably stable. Clinton leads by 11 points among women, while Obama leads by 7 points among men. Obama leads among those under age 54, while Clinton holds an edge among those age 55 and older.

She leads among Catholics, 58% to 26%, reflecting a small gain for Obama. But Clinton gained among Protestants yesterday and now trails Obama by 14 points. The two religious demographic groups are roughly the same size in Pennsylvania.

Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, up 7 points over yesterday. Clinton leads by a small margin among mainline liberals, and by larger margins among moderates and conservative Democratic primary voters.

The economy continues to be the most important issue to voters, and they continue to favor Clinton over Obama in terms of choosing a candidate who would both help their personal financial situation, and help the U.S. economy at large.

Clinton was also seen as the candidate who better understands Pennsylvania—56% said as much, while just 29% said Obama better understands the state, this most recent polling showed. However, Obama made a small gain on this question in the last day's polling.

[Quixote1818]

1. Interesting. Some Reagan Democrats don't like Clinton either. nt

[Jawja]

18. "Reagan Democrat"

Have these so-called "Democrats" voted for the Democratic candidate SINCE Reagan?

If not, they are in reality Republicans. They switched loyalty in 2000 and are now "Reagan Republicans>"

[meow mix]

2. both zog and ras showing a deadlock in PA

pretty much

[slinkerwink]

3. zogby is not to be trusted. Clinton will win by 12 points.

[Donkeykick]

7. It wouldn't surprise me a bit...

if it would be more

I expect Clinton to get a beating in NC though.:shrug:

[cliffordu]

4. This is so painful it reminds me of my LAST visit to Pa....

[Blue-Jay]

6. HA!

[liberaldem4ever]

5. Tuesday is going to be very interesting

It's going to be interesting to see whose voters actually turn out and whose don't. Pundits will have a field day dissecting the results.

[Kermit77]

8. The weather is supposed to be excellent

The weather on Tuesday is supposed to be sunny and 63 degrees, excellent weather for GOTV. That should bode well for Obama, especially at the college campuses.

[Pirate Smile]

9. This makes sense for why Obama has put out some negative ads going back at Clinton.

Supposedly, negative campaigning depresses turnout so maybe they just want those undecideds to just stay home.


Truly, how could you still be undecided? What could either candidate do that would actually change someone's mind?

[grantcart]

10. There have been persistent rumors that Obama's internals are showing higher than

normal undecideds.

[SKKY]

17. What does that mean for him?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. I heard that what it means is these people are turned off by both

O and H. What I heard was that Hillary chose to
go negative, in part, to turn-off new voters and
to keep these undecideds less interested in going
to the polls. Because they typically favor O.

[GoesTo11]

11. Why is there such a big Catholic / Protestant divide

I don't really know the PA demographic.

[woolldog]

13. I was wondering the same thing?

Anyone have any answers????

[starroute]

15. The Catholics are mainly of late 19th century immigrant stock

They're central and eastern Europeans, mostly, many of whom settled directly in the coal mining areas and still maintain tight family and ethnic ties. The dynamic is very different than what you'd find among the Irish and Italian Catholics in major cities.

The Protestants are generally the earlier arrivals. 18th century immigrants like the Quakers, Pennsylvania Germans, and Scots-Irish, combined with a wave of New Englanders who showed up in the early 19th century. Not necessarily liberal, but definitely a bit more prosperous and less clannish.

[woolldog]

20. I see. thanks for the analysis.

That was informative. :)

[bunnies]

12. I guess dissing the activists isnt going over so well for her.

"among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, up 7 points over yesterday"

oops!

[starroute]

14. Obama GOTV is in overdrive here in Bucks County

We had one canvasser a couple of weeks ago, another yesterday -- and my husband said he passed two more when he was out walking earlier this afternoon, though I apparently missed them because I was out back digging up dandelions.

I've never seen anything like it.

[TheDonkey]

16. hopefully move on mobilizes