'It's the undecideds stupid'

[4themind]

Just a paraphrase, from the info from this diary (not meant to be offensive, just "witty" (perhaps I've even failed there)
It makes the interesting point that while some polls, have the contest as very close, there are still undecideds that could influence the margin of victory (from single digits to double digits). Some points of interest from the diary,

1.)The number of undecideds in these polls
2.)Clinton vs. Barack's past numbers in converting these undecideds to their side (the diary suggests that hillary has done better, in the past, although that doesn't necessarily mean that will be the case this time (an appeal to tradition))
3.)The locations of these undecides in PA and the demographics of these regions (Chuck todd at least thinks that clinton is favored here, due to polls that suggest that these undecideds are predominantly in rural areas)

He may win the whole thing, but I think these issues, should be given consideration. In my view, for Obama to come within 10 points here will be an excellent feat, given the amount of time the clintons have spent courting the citizenry of the state and the number of prominent state leaders it's locked up (murtha/pittsburgh mayor in the west/philly mayor in the east/allegheny county head in the center (IIRC) and the Govenor of the entire state). Also, a margin of 10 points or less (assuming projections by some of 2,000,000 million turnout) will hinder hillary from getting the lead in the popular vote, or making ground in pledged delegates, and depending upon the results of May 6th, he could eat into both of those gains.

[AllentownJake]

1. Its two things

The undecides and the new registrations. They account for 16% - 20% of the electorate. No polling for the new registrations so who knows why these people changed parties or registered for the first time.

[4themind]

2. Good point also, what was the total number of new registrants?

and, the locations of these registrants (within the state) would be interesting information for consideration also

[AllentownJake]

3. article

http://www.texarkanagazette.com/news/WireHeadlines/2008/04/20/pennsylvania-voter-registration-data-ind-34.php

[4themind]

4. Thanks!

Interesting that the surge seems to be in Bucks and Mongomery. In my uneducated opinion, perhaps bucks will be more favorable for clinton, while Montgomery county could be a big toss up. If 326,756 joined from one year ago, the thing I'm wondering is exactly how recent the voter registration lists are that these polling companies use (telling us how many of that 326,756 would not be included in polling)