Regarding all of these "Obama has to do this" or "If this happens" or "Obama needs" lets be clear

[grantcart]

SOME PEOPLE SEEMED TO HAVE A LITTLE SHORT TERM MEMORY PROBLEM

SO LETS REVIEW

IOWA +9%

SOUTH CAROLINA + 28%

UTAH + 18%

NORTH DAKOTA +24%

MISSOURI + 1%

MINNESOTA + 34%

KANSAS + 48%

ILLINOIS + 32%

IDAHO +63%

GEORGIA + 35%

DEMOCRATS +34%

DELAWARE + 11%

CONNECTICUT + 4%

ALASKA + 50%

ALABAMA + 14%

WASHINGTON + 37%

VIRGIN ISLANDS + 82%

NEBRASKA + 36%

LOUISIANA + 21%

MAINE + 19%

VIRGINIA + 19%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA +49%

WISCONSIN +17%

HAWAII +52%

VERMONT +20%

WYOMING + 23%

MISSISSIPPI +24%


So you will notice that Obama didn't just barely win these states. In most of them they were blow out after blow out. So we really are not very impressed with a 4% victory in Texas or your 1% win in New Mexico or your 3% New Hampshire. A win by 10% in Pennsylvania is not going to register a bit with us.

Hillary has had a few wins and she will have a few more. Outside of states that she calls home (including her apparent ancestral home in Pennsylvania) she has just won or had a few strong showings. In state after state she has suffered landslide losses.

This is her fault. She has run a lackluster campaign that was all about merchandising a product. If after a few of these landslide losses she chucked her entourage and did what Mc Cain did and go to town hall after town hall and just been her self and stayed hour after hour answering each question with wonkish reply after wonkish reply then she could have been the nominee.

She didn't and it has nothing to do with sexism - although that is in existence in the US - it came down to the simple fact that she didn't understand the American people as well as she thought she did. Not nearly as well as Obama. Hell she didn't even understand MoveOn.org that well.

This race has been over since she burned down her first firewall - remember that - Wisconsin. 'Her demographics', 'her people' and she lost by 17 points. It died again in Texas where she barely won with a Limbaugh assist and still lost delegates in a state Bill said she 'had' to win to stay in the race.

She may win by a few points in Pennsylvania. But its time to be honest. We are simply being polite. We want a united party and quite frankly if it was a white male then the second place candidate would have been thrown to the wolves by now.

How long this continues will be entirely up to a single person and how much personal embarrassment she is willing to take.

But please understand one thing. Senator Obama has won.

He has more

pledged delegates
popular votes
primary victories
caucus victories
donors
money raised
cash on hand
Governor endorsements
Senatorial endorsements

We are going to stand with this man. He has not let us down and we will not let him down.


If there are any attempts to steal this nomination from the junior Senator from Illinois then please understand one thing:


THERE WILL BE A WHOLE NEW MEANING TO THE PHRASE: GOING APE SHIT.


And if your not quite sure about that just ask the bozos over at ABC.


This is what is going to happen:


August 24th Senator Obama will be the nominee of the Party


November 4th Nominee Obama will become the President Elect of the United States


January 20th President Elect Obama will take the Oath of Office.

[gateley]

1. Good job --

Seeing it like that is VERY impressive!

But what's DEMOCRATS? (between GA and DE)

[grantcart]

4. Democrats Abroad - thanks

[gateley]

5. Thanks! nt

[grantcart]

11. np

[grantcart]

59. and COLORADO + 35%

[JeffR]

2. grantcart

You rock!

[hisownpetard]

111. Seconded!!

[AtomicKitten]

3. Amen!

[bigbrother05]

6. You, tell it brother

:applause:

[democracy1st]

46. He's the man isn't he

:kick:

[crispini]

7. K&R

:patriot:

[DerekJ]

8. K & R

[cliffordu]

9. K and R Just to keep everyone on the same page as to what is

real and what is hysterical bullshit.

:kick:








:patriot:






Nice work, grantcart!!


Thanks!

[crankychatter]

10. kicked and, um

recommended

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

12. Who else can do this????

Senator Barack Obama speaks to an estimated 35,000 people in Philadelphia on Friday evening.

(Photo: Ozier Muhammad/The New York Times)PHILADELPHIA — Senator Barack Obama drew what may be his biggest crowd yet here Friday. His campaign, quoting Frank Friel, director of security at the Independence Visitor Center, pegged the number at 35,000

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/obama-draws-record-crowd-in-philadelphia/

How many people turn out to a Clinton event?

[grantcart]

37. Who else can do something that has never been done before?

Now it looks simple.

If 6 months ago you put all you money on Obama in the political markets you would be rich right now.


Starts the month with $ 51 million dollars in his bank account. Why in the hell are we even having this discussion.


We should be having a party and getting ready for a great GE campaign.

[Radical Activist]

13. She couldn't even top 60% in New York. Pathetic.

Obama did much better in Illinois where Hillary was born.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

50. Harlem, NY, reported election night, NOT ONE vote for Obama???????????

I'm guessing Hillary will "win" PA the same way she "won" NY.

[democracy1st]

73. I need to dig that info up

Thanks for reminding me

[BzaDem]

14. This will all change if Hillary wins the popular vote, which she can still do if she wins PA by 10.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

16. no this will not all change, it will still remain what it is -her with less of everything

she can not win the rest of the contests at 60%, and therefore can not win.

I know she isn't going to win North Carolina for sure.

[babylonsister]

18. Link to a goddamn thing you just posted? So now the popular vote is

in play again? Isn't Obama winning that? :crazy:

[BzaDem]

25. Yes, right now. She might catch up. Unless the remaining 10 contests don't count.

[grantcart]

27. No there is no mathematical chance that she can catch up

Her own campaign has admitted that they will enter the convention behind in pledged delegates by over 100 pledged delegates. It was admitted on Meet the Press again today. She will not catch up in any of the other categories as well.


How do you want your Ape Shit delivered by FEDEX Air or FEDEX Ground?

[BzaDem]

28. She might very well catch up in the popular vote.

She is going to win WV and KY in landslides, probably netting at least 200,000 votes. She will probably get at least 200,000 votes out of PA. She could potentially get 400,000 out of Puerto Rico. Including FL but not MI, that puts her about 400,000 votes ahead. Even if she loses NC by 200,000 votes, she is still ahead.

It is definately possible.

[grantcart]

32. No she is not and everyone knows that she is not

You can include Florida or whatevery you want but in the states where the actually had campaigns she is going to be behind.


But and this is real important it DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER.


The reason that it doesn't matter is that if you were going to make it about the popular vote then Obama would have run a different campaign he would have spent his time and resources in big urban areas and run up the urban vote. He would have camped out on the East coast instead of Idaho.

When you change the rules of the game its called cheating. We are not going to let anyone cheat to win the nomination. The popular vote (which he is going to win anyway) doesn't mean one god damn thing.


Now if it happens that this is the strategy and that is what is planned then you will see hundreds of thousands of Obama supporters going to Denver to stop the theft of the nomination, including my family.

But that isn't going to happen. Since Super Tuesday she has lost the support of the majority of Democrat Senators and Governors and now leads only in appointed DNC Super Delegates. That lead goes down every week.



There are 81 'add on' super delegates and so far Obama has picked up 8 and Clinton 3.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html



Hillary said that she would do well in the begining. Obama won January.


Hillary said that she would win Super Tuesday. Obama won Super Tuesday.


Hillary said that after Super Tuesday that the calendar would favor her. Obama won February.


Hillary said that Ohio and Texas would bring her ahead in March. Obama won more delegates in March.


There is only one primary in April and that is Pennsylvania. Because Obama has won more super delegates and add on delegates this month barring a huge landslide victory Obama will win more delegates in April.


As for your projections on big victories every single time they actually campaign her numbers tank and his go up. You also forget North Carolina which has the biggest margin in any of the polls.


FEDEX GROUND OR FEDEX AIR?

[BzaDem]

34. I've heard it all from you before. It's cheating, would have had different strategy, blah blah

Obama knew that the popular vote might matter in the end with superdelegates, if the race was close enough. It's not Hillary's fault that he didn't take that into account.

Unfortunately for you, superdelegates don't think like you. The undecided superdelegates are waiting to see what happens, and are definately concerned about the popular vote. If they all thought like you did, they could end this race tomorrow. They could have ended this race long ago. Since Obama has an "insurmountable" lead in pledged delegates, they could have all just realized that and went to Obama. They didn't. There are still plenty of undecided superdelegates.

So feel free to continue to moan about how the popular vote doesn't exist. But it will always be you and like-minded people on this board who are doing the moaning, and not the people that actually make the decisions. (And "hundreds of thousands" of people protesting if HRC wins the popular vote? I seriously doubt it.)

[grantcart]

41. Fine take all of your savings and buy her shares in Intrade tomorrow

its going to take a big dive because she is deeply in debt and Obama is sitting on $41 million dollars cash after paying his bills.

To try and change the campaign from being based on winning primary's and caucuses to winning the popular vote (which Obama is way ahead any way is simply a way of game the system. No one but dellusional Clinton supporters buy it. Not a single super delegate has said that they are voting for Hillary Clinton because she is winning the popular vote. Not one.


http://www.intrade.com/#

see her chart here: If all of the Clinton supporters believe that she has such a good chance then why don't they buy the shares. The only cost $ 15. Buy 1000 shares and when she gets the nomination you will have $ 100,000. By Wednesday these shares won't be worth $ 10.

Nobody even wealthy Clinton supporters are buying any of this


http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=177134


You have devolved into pure jibberish. Ever since the campaign has started the super delegates have gone for Obama. Clinton's lead in superdelegates has fallen from 100 to 20. There are a large number of super delegates for Senator Clinton that have already declared that they will switch when Obama gets the majority of the pledged delegates. There are another dozen add on delegates that have already been chosen that are for Obama that are just waiting for their state conventions for formal approval. The superdelegate in DC that was for Clinton just switched.

On top of that there are another group of superdelegates like President Carter that have indicated that they will vote for Obama but for proticol reasons will not formally endorse.



13 Super Delegate Governors have endorsed Obama and only 10 have supported Clinton

17 Super Delegate Senators have endorsed Obama and only 13 have supported Clinton.


Maintain your delusion but by all means tomorrow ring up Intrade and throw all of your family's savings away on a future buy for Hillary. If you really believe don't just sit there buy the stocks which will be very cheap tomorrow.

[BzaDem]

42. Um, wrong again. Corzine has said that he is going for Clinton because she will win the popular vote

I'm not saying Hillary will likely win the popular vote. It is less than a 50% chance, which is why I wouldn't use Intrade (not that I would anyway). But it is certainly more than 20%.

[grantcart]

43. You are 100% wrong

He is saying that she needs to win BIG in Pennsylvania or its all over.

He is also saying that if she doesn't win the popular vote she will lose



http://breakingnews.denverpost.com/dynamic/stories/C/CORZINE_CLINTON?SITE=CODEN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2008-04-18-11-05-52




Corzine: Clinton needs big win in PA

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine says Hillary Rodham Clinton needs a big win in Tuesday's Pennsylvania presidential primary.

Speaking on MSNBC on Friday, Corzine says a loss in Pennsylvania would be a "door closer" for Clinton.

Corzine has endorsed Clinton. He says the Keystone State is key because Clinton needs to win the popular vote.

Barack Obama leads Clinton in the delegate race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

[BzaDem]

45. *sigh* You are proven wrong even in your own words.

Corzine has endorsed Clinton. "He says the Keystone State is key because...

Clinton
needs
to
win
the
popular
vote.

"

Or if that isn't enough, go here:

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/3/141549/1184

He admits that if she doesn't win the popular vote, Obama will be the nominee. And I agree. Murtha has said the same thing.

They all say she will certainly have a chance if she wins the popular vote.

[grantcart]

64. Your quote is 3 weeks old mine is 3 days old

He is not saying that she has to win Pennsylvania. He is saying that she needs to win BIG BIG BIG


QUOTE

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine says Hillary Rodham Clinton needs a big win in Tuesday's Pennsylvania presidential primary.

UNQUOTE.

This was your example now I will give you mine


http://www.columbian.com/news/localNews/2008/03/03242008_Cantwell-supporting-Clinton--for-now.cfm

U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, one of Washington’s 17 Democratic superdelegates, isn’t ready to shift her allegiance from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama — yet.

But in an interview with The Columbian’s editorial board Monday, she said the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primary season in late June will have the strongest claim to the party’s presidential nomination.



There are a number of Clinton Super Delegates who will switch to Obama if he has the MAJORITY OF PLEDGED DELEGATES not popular vote but PLEDGED DELEGATES.



I defy you to find a single Obama Super Delegate who has stated that they will switch because Clinton gets the popular vote.


The whole meme of popular vote lies only in the Clinton camp and die hard supporters. It does not exist anywhere else. There are no Super Delegates who have said they will vote based on the popular vote none. There are Clinton Super Delegates who have said that they will no longer support Clinton if she loses the popular vote. Corzine is one. He is not a die hard Clinton supporter. If Clinton does not overtake Obama in the popular vote she will lose his - and many others - popular votes.


I don't think these American politicians are going to give any weight to popular votes from Puerto Rico given that they carry no weight in the American political system and there is not scenario that gives Clinton the popular vote with out 500,000 advantage in Puerto Rico.

[grantcart]

44. And here is another statement showing that he is reconsidering his endorsement

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/03/corzine_reconsidering.html


Corzine Reconsidering?
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who has already endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton, said in a CNBC interview this morning that he may cast his vote at the Democratic convention for Sen. Barack Obama if Clinton doesn't win the popular vote.

While Corzine emphasized he still thinks Clinton will win the popular vote, he did open the door to a possible switch.

[BzaDem]

47. I know -- thats what I'm trying to say!

The winner of the popular vote will be incredibly important. This is in stark contract to your "it doesn't exist" meme.

If Clinton wins the popular vote, but Obama is given the nomination anyway, there will be outrage, and the SuperDs realize this. No, I don't have evidence to back this up, just like you have no evidence to back up your extravagant claim that there will be "hundreds of thousands" of protestors at the Democratic Convention if Hillary wins the popular vote and thus gets the nomination.

[grantcart]

51. The only scenario that has Clinton coming close in the popular vote is one

that gives her atleast 500,000 votes from Puerto Rico, lol.

But even so the fact that we don't have a system of electing delegates by popular vote makes the whole discussion moot even though Obama has a substantial lead.

The reason that it is moot is that we have a system that combines primaries in some states and caucuses in other states. These caucuses go on to have state conventions. By counting only popular vote you are eliminating from consideration the 11 states that use state conventions to choose pledged delegates and do not have popular vote.

But beyond that the Obama campaign spent huge resources to win delegates because it is always been about the delegates. He went to Idaho for example and his 15 delegate advantage in Idaho makes it the 6th largest net gain of any primary or caucus. If the delegates were not going to be the determinate factor then he would have stayed in major metropolitan areas and spent his time and financial resources to run up larger popular vote.

To try and 'reset' the rules for winning after the fact is a sorry exercise for desperate minds. Immediately after Iowa when it appeared that 3rd place finisher Hillary was going to have an even split of delegates with Obama and Edwards the Clinton campaign came out and loudly proclaimed that 'only the delegates count - only the delegates count'.

There are a long list of Clinton Super Delegates who have said that they are going to change their endorsement if OBAMA GETS THE MAJORITY OF PLEDGED DELEGATES not popular votes. He is only 221 pledged delegates from that number. He will get 1/3 of that on Tuesday. When he reaches that number those Super Delegates who have endorsed Clinton will switch to Obama.

There are no super delegates who have endorsed Obama who have said that they will switch their support to Clinton if she wins the popular vote.

[BzaDem]

55. It's not Hillary's fault that Obama went to Idaho.

He knew that it could come down to superdelegates and thus the popular vote.

The popular vote that everyone's talking about includes actual vote totals, released by all but 4 caucus states (the other 4 are Iowa, Maine, Washington, and Nevada), and those 4 can be estimated by turnout * percentage of state delegates. Such an estimate favors the winner in caucus states over the actual vote totals.

[grantcart]

61. lol Obama is going to net more pledged delegates out of Idaho than either of them will

from Ohio or Pennsylvania or Texas. Fault lol It was a brilliant move by Obama and it now appears that she will lose viabililty and he will sweep all 18 pledged delegates.


Oh and by the way here is a real cute you tube of a tiny little caucus in Idaho

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fwJEWLUv8

[BzaDem]

63. Fine. Then don't whine if HRC wins the popular vote and then the nomination.

Because that was allowed under the rules of superdelegates. Obama knew it before, and he knows it now.

[grantcart]

66. Here is a Clinton super delegate that is going to change to Obama

when he reaches 50+1 in pledged delegates - not popular vote:


U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, one of Washington’s 17 Democratic superdelegates, isn’t ready to shift her allegiance from Sen. Hillary Clinton to Sen. Barack Obama — yet.

But in an interview with The Columbian’s editorial board Monday, she said the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primary season in late June will have the strongest claim to the party’s presidential nomination.



Now show me a single Super Delegate who is not already for Clinton that will support her if she gets the popular vote?

[grantcart]

67. Obama raises more in NY state than Clinton

What do you think Super Delegates are going to think about the fact that Obama can raise more money in NY than Hillary can??


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5598361&mesg_id=5598941

[muryan]

58. Theres a much higher chance of Obama

getting 50% of the remaining pledge delegates and 30% of the super delegates than Hillary winning the popular vote. Those percentages are important for Obama because thats what he needs to lock up the nomination.

[mahina]

128. Hundreds of thousands? At least, but this time

we won't protest and go home, we're staying.

But it won't be necessary.

While we're talking, how about you pass me a hit of that.

[Citizen_Penn]

151. Doubt it?

Bet on it.

Not this time.

We've had one election stolen from us.

NOT THIS TIME.


Hell, yeah we'll go "ape shit".

[mhoran]

93. Possible...

...but still most unlikely.

Why are you including Florida?

[babylonsister]

35. What don't you understand about a LINK? Do you have one? nt

[BzaDem]

38. YES. Here.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html

Punchline: She might win by 400k votes even WITHOUT MI and FL.

[grantcart]

24. No your wrong - its not even close he is ahead in the popular vote

by 728,000 votes.

But it doesn't matter. Its not about the popular vote. If it had been he wouldn't have wasted his time in Idaho and Kansas he would have been running up the numbers in the urban areas.


http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

[kmsarvis]

56. zlt234 also doesn't understand the flaw in adding primaries and caucuses to....

get popular vote totals.

[BzaDem]

62. Yeah, I haven't been enlightened.

The way I thought about it, was that hmm... all but 4 caucus states report vote totals (in addition to state delegates). So if Obama got 50,000 votes in a caucus, and 100,000 votes in a primary, that's, wait, no, get this...

100,000 + 50,000 =

...

150,000 votes.


But apparently, in DU-land, you have to weigh each caucus vote 5.5 times as much as a primary vote. Because in caucuses, some people are too lazy to show up due to the extended process. We need to correct for them. So we assume that for each caucusgoer that did show up, there were an additional 4.5 people that would have appeared if they weren't so damned lazy.

The way I thought about it was, we don't weigh votes. We don't weigh for laziness, lack of laziness, income, property, or anything else. We just observe the principle of one person, one vote, and count each vote equally.

But what do I know. The math behind one person, one vote doesn't really favor Obama, so I guess most Obama supporters just don't get it.

[grantcart]

106. No in DU land we actually go by the rules and count delegates

There are 11 states that do not have primaries and nominate entirely through state conventions. There is no primary vote to count and no way to weigh the popular vote. None.

For example in Iowa Obama appeared to have won with 38% of the caucus attendees. The reality is that Obama is going to have 70% of the delegates from the state. There are no primary votes to calculate and you cannot tell by caucus figures what percent of the primary vote he would have had.

In DU land like the convention we count the delegates and go on that.

[Alii]

136. Do you suppose that that person might actually know....

how the Electoral College works?

And no, I'm obviously not speaking of primaries here but the principle is basically the same in the general election. You are voting for a 'delegate' to vote for the president. And yes, obviously, a president can be elected without having obtained the majority of the 'popular' vote.

In short, it is the delegate count that matters and rightfully so...that's the rules. Why do people keep trying to twist the rules and/or add 'chad' votes to fit their fantasy. You don't change the rules ex post facto.

Besides, Barack Obama will be leading in all areas...prior to the convention. IT IS OVER.

Puerto Rico has a larger delegate count, 56, than over 50% of our states. Not certain of the actual percentage and too lazy to Google it, but... Why? Might we send Richardson to PR? They had no idea what Bill was speaking about...they did understand "Clinton." They also understand "macho." However, it will be over by then anyway.

Oh shit, Rendell was on Colbert this a.m. He just picked up ten more votes for his gal Hillary.

I apologize for the levity...but, I for one know that IT IS OVER and still awaiting "the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat."

Mil gracias,

Que sera, sera...

[D23MIURG23]

26. Or it would be if that was the metric the party uses to determine the nominee.

[Muttocracy]

39. doubt it

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[peace13]

126. Don't forget Michigan and Florida!!

Sarcasm....much

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

15. REFILE-UPDATE 1-Democrat Obama hauls in $42.8 million in March

REFILE-UPDATE 1-Democrat Obama hauls in $42.8 million in March

WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama raised more than $42 million in campaign donations in March, his campaign reported on Sunday.

...Sen. Hillary Clinton's March report was not out yet. A campaign source said earlier this month the New York senator expected to raise about $20 million.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain began April with $11.6 cash on hand, his campaign said in its fundraising disclosure report.

The Arizona senator, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination to contest the November election, raised $15.4 million in March and spent $11.8 during the month, the campaign reported. (Editing by Todd Eastham)

...http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSN2033317820080421

[FrenchieCat]

29. and that was a bad month........with Texas & Ohio, and Wright breaking, and all.......

[grantcart]

68. I'll be gone for 3 days Frenchie

here is something very strange


Hillary raises $ 12 million March 1-30 but on March 31st receives $ 8 million.


What ever this was they are hoping it won't get out until after Pennsylvania.

[Alii]

75. How 'bout paying the bills?

Particulary the colleges in California and health insurance, etc.

[tekisui]

79. $8 million from Clinton's back account?

[grantcart]

95. I don't know but somebody should start a thread about it

Maybe the MSM will wake up and ask the question before the primary

[thoughtcrime1984]

17. Bravo, grantcart! K&R, but MS was more like 25%!

:)

[grantcart]

21. thanks it was a typo should have been 24 and now corrected

[TheDoorbellRang]

19. Damn Straight, grantcart!

K&R!

[Major Hogwash]

20. Letting the cat out of the bag a little early, aren't ya?

Or just letting all the hot air out of her balloons?

LoL

[grantcart]

22. Well you may have seen some threads today that triggered this

but let's face it - we are not going to let this one go. Sometimes you have to just stand up and say enough of the spin. Look at the facts.

The cat has been out of the bag for some time and has already had one litter

[D23MIURG23]

23. K&R

[bhikkhu]

30. K&R, and hope it registers

The next week may be it, and we are on to the GE. Even if HRC is still hanging on, grabbing for ankles as the race passes her by.

[ginnyinWI]

31. It's because her name is Clinton, first and foremost

If she were a woman not named Clinton she would never have raised enough money to get this far, and it's because of Bill that the media is still giving her space on their programs. (But I think they're running out of things to say--this thing has gone on too long.)

I agree, too, that if Obama were a white male this thing would also be settled by now. Nobody wants to admit it, but there is a certain amount of incredulity on the part of the media, a certain amount of disbelief that a black man could actually be in the lead and running a substantial, serious, well-funded campaign. That says a lot more about them than anyone else. They keep thinking that it's not really happening, that somehow Hillary will ascend to her rightful place, because she's a Clinton and more legit by comparison to Obama.

[dchill]

33. K&R

:kick::toast:

[Frank Booth]

36. Thanks for another good post.

[skyounkin]

40. Kick'd cause I love the Original Message

Recomended for the great follow up through the thread!

[otohara]

48. Where's The Great State of Colorado

has a city named Denver, where history will be made and come November, it will be BLUE for Obama.

[grantcart]

60. and COLORADO + 35%

Thank you for catching that.

[ClayZ]

49. K and R

[Emit]

52. Wow.

I'm breathless just from reading that, grantcart!

:thumbsup:

[boppers]

53. Thanks for the reminder.

I took everybody off of ignore, once Hillary blamed the VLWC for her struggles... that's when I knew it was over.

Now I'm just doing the :popcorn: thing.

[writes3000]

54. Thank you, Grantcart. Just thank you. Your perspective is always spot-on.

[Tarheel_Dem]

57. grantcart, another spectacular post. I hope all the whiny, chicken little

Obama "supporters" get a chance to read this. I am so sick of the hand wringing at every turn by so called "supporters". Obama has to do this, or Obama has to do that. And you're right, if Hillary was any other candidate, she would have been forced out after Obama's 12th or 13th straight win.

:kick:

[grantcart]

121. tks

[NanceGreggs]

65. Response: K & R!

Reason for K&R: Obvious!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[kid a]

69. pin to top! Effin A! Great, REALLY great post.

[happygoluckytoyou]

70. SO.... HOW FAR AHEAD IS HILLARY? I DON'T GET THE NUMBERS

[SunsetDreams]

71. The handwriting is on the wall!

Thank you Hillary for wasting time and resources.

:sarcasm:

[krkaufman]

72. In retrospect, the race was over for Hillary when she assumed it was to be hers, years ago ...

... and she began positioning herself for a General Election campaign, voting for the Iraq war, promoting a flag burning ban, etc.

Hillary took her support from Democrats and her nomination for granted, just as she assumed she'd have the nomination wrapped by Super Tuesday.

[ms liberty]

81. Yes. That's when she began losing me...n/t

[grantcart]

122. hubris goes before the fall

[Cieran]

74. A Coup by Super Delegates...

for Hillary to be the nominee could be the catalyst to finally launch the most powerful, independent campaign in history. Hillary and McCain would split the Right vote and Hillary would split the centrists with Obama in the General. Obama, as an independent with an established base of millions of people behind him, will go into the General Election strong and get the left and independent vote and shatter the 2 party system that is plaguing this country.

[goclark]

87. Hadn't thought about that but any way he can get in his

WH, I'm with him.

Love you Barack!

[krkaufman]

160. Eh, if one of the Dems goes third party in the GE, the Rethugs will win ...

... unless they have their own splitter. The electoral college and current winner-take-all allocation of EC votes isn't amenable to a third party candidate.

[Alii]

76. I knew that...

I'm convinced, particularly in Texas, that had Hillary not received the Rush Limbaugh votes that Obama would've won the popular vote...maybe by a slim margin. However, he did end up with a +5 in the pledged delegate count. Que sera, sera.

Even Rendell said that he would support Obama...when the time comes. Very soon.

I'm smelling an upset in Pennsylvania tomorrow night. Relying on the un-polled cell phone generation End the agony for Hillary...there will be no ecstasy.

The pleasingly plump lady is getting very anxious to sing.

Will Hillary attempt a crying jag tomorrow night on the Larry King Show? I think that she's just about used up all of her alter egos.


Aloha & luck all...

[democrank]

77. Thank you, grantcart.

~PEACE~

[Skywalker]

78. Thanx grantcart....

...your posts always bolster my hopes for Obama '08!

K&R

[myrna minx]

80. K&R n/t

[phrigndumass]

82. K/R n/t

:thumbsup:

[undeterred]

83. Obama has won. The rest of you need to accept it.

[berni_mccoy]

84. Excellent post Grant!

[grantcart]

114. tks Berni

[The Doctor.]

85. You're just being sexist...

at least that's what I've been told.

[goclark]

86. We trust you grantcart ~ you have never let us down

:bounce:

Thanks for constantly reminding us .

You know how to make it plain with your numbers, charts and graphs.
I love that January 20th date ~ when he knocks her out of the Primary,let me know a day ahead of time and I will finish booking my reservations.

I've got 22 other Seniors that are my friends and we are Fired Up and ready to reserve our hotel rooms.

[grantcart]

99. were going to need a bigger bus

[goclark]

127. Let's roll!

I want to be there --- I just have to be there to see him put his hand on the Bible.

[theFrankFactor]

88. Excellent Info GC! (eom)

[grantcart]

103. Thanks Frank

[NorthCarolina]

89. K&R nt

[Mme. Defarge]

90. God willin' and the creek don't rise! n/t

[grantcart]

94. The creek can flood we got boats

[powergirl]

91. That's right - Obama doesn't need to do jack squat

Someone else needs to be doin' the doin. :evilgrin:

[bpeale]

92. it doesn't matter about blowouts but how many electoral votes they have

and he doesn't have enough to win. period.

[grantcart]

116. By the time he gets to Oregon he will have a majority of pledged delegates

those super delegates who are pledged to follow the majority of pledged delegates will follow.

It will not go past Oregon.

[bpeale]

132. no he won't. we will have a brokered convention

[The_Counsel]

133. Oh Brother...

"it doesn't matter about blowouts but how many electoral votes they have and he doesn't have enough to win. period."


I'm sorry ... we weren't aware that the Electoral College counted during PRIMARY season. :eyes:

But let's suspend reality for a moment and assume the "Electoral College" argument was valid...

First of all, you can't count Michigan and Florida because of the whole "disqualified primary" thing.

Then, there's the issue of Obama getting more delegates than Clinton in Texas and Nevada. That switches 39 EVs from Clinton to Obama.

Factor in all that and the EV tally is really Clinton 189, Obama 193. Sure, neither has the 270 needed, but Obama still has more.

But, back to reality, and the fact that Obama has more pledged delegates, total delegates, states won, primaries won, caucuses won and total raw votes. Hillary has more superdelegates, but seeing as how Obama seems to get a new one every other day, I'm sure that'll change soon enough.

Thanks for playing, though... :)

[ecstatic]

96. GOBAMA! Good pep talk! nt

[DemsUnited]

97. Enthusiastic kick & rec. Thanks for putting it into perspective!

:kick:

[grantcart]

168. thanks

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

98. Clinton campaign in debt $10 million, support drying up

From America Blog:

To be exact, the campaign owes debts totaling $10,321,562.87 -- and that doesn't include the $5 million loan she made to the campaign. Mark Penn's firm is owed over $4.5 million.

Further proof that Clinton's fundraisers and donors should have been spending their time raising money instead of attacking Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean.

Obama raised over $40 million in March -- and had cash-on-hand for the primaries of approximately $42 million.

Meanwhile, John McCain continues to break the campaign finance laws. After Tuesday we can start to focus much more attention on that.

http://www.americablog.com/2008/04/ap-clintons-campaign-in-red-debts.html

[grantcart]

101. and on top of that of her $ 20 million in March $ 8 million was raised on the last day

What is that about?

[wowimthere]

100. Great post. I feel the same way...

[TheDoorbellRang]

104. Just a kick for reality to sink in n/t

[grantcart]

107. tks

[sonias]

102. Thanks for this grantcart!

Even I have short term memory problems. But lets not discount the Obama 48 percent of the popular vote, in Texas. Keep in mind that he was trailing by double digits in Texas a month out too. We closed that gap and he actually won more delegates in Texas because his campaign learned the rules and did a phenomenal job organizing for the caucus part of the process. Depth of support. That's what that part of our prima-caucus measures. So Texas is in the Obama column as a win, popular vote or not. And we actually have one more part to go - our state convention in Austin on June 5th-7th. I expect that Obama delegates will once again turn out in solid committed numbers for our candidate. These are the most committed people who will work in Texas this fall. We're building the ground game for Obama in Texas for the fall.

Si se puede! Obamanos Tejas!

:bounce:


Sonia

[grantcart]

117. thanks

[Erin Elizabeth]

105. Bookmarking this

and K&Ring it, too. Great post.

[Barrymores Ghost]

109. Likewise! n/t

[Barrymores Ghost]

108. Astonishingly GREAT post, grantcart!! K&R n/t

[grantcart]

110. tks

[hisownpetard]

112. grantcart, you rock AND roll (right up to the top of the Greatest page, once again!

K&R, of course.

[yellerpup]

113. Nothing left to say, grantcart...

Except GObama! and Kick! :kick:

[Norrin Radd]

115. kr

[Imagevision]

118. Obama is gaining popularity while Hillary is continueing to lose it...

[central scrutinizer]

119. sorry but this is voodoo math

It is one person - one vote, not one state - one vote or one acre - one vote. Winning Wyoming by a huge margin is not as important as winning California by a slim margin. Very similar to the "math" used by Bushco to show that they "won". Most of the states listed in the OP are sparsely populated.

[grantcart]

120. Here is the math

Obama is 139 pledged delegates ahead

There is no way that Hillary can come close to that - even her campaign agrees to that.

Sometime soon probably in Oregon he will secure 50% of the pledged delegates.


A large number of super delegates have already said that they will follow.


Oh and by the way in the big states Obama still has high numbers


State . . . . . Obama . . . . . . Clinton

California. . . .2,126,000 . . . . . . .2,553,000

Texas . . . . . .1,358,000 . . . . . . .1,459,000

New York. . . . .698,000 . . . . . . . 1,003,000

Illinois. . . . . 1,302,000 . . . . . . . .662,000

Ohio . . . . . . 982,000. . . . . . . 1,212,000

Gerogia. . . . . . 704,000 . . . . . . . 330,000

New Jersey. . . .492,000 . . . . . . . 603,000

Virginia . . . . . 627,000 . . . . . . . 350,000

Washington . . . 354,000 . . . . . . . 316,000


Total . . . . .8,643,000 . . . . . . . .8,487,000

[cui bono]

134. Not in this country/primary it's not. It's one person - one vote - x delegates.

[ClayZ]

123. OBAMA/44 K and R

[Scurrilous]

124. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Justitia]

125. Thank you - eye on the prize and all that! -eom

[grantcart]

139. eye of the tiger

[ooglymoogly]

129. IT HAS NOW BEEN SAID!.....KR

[Frustratedlady]

130. Love it! Thanks for the reminder of how well everything is going...

Hillary has a way of dragging us down, but Obama pulls us back to the high road.

Truly, I had forgotten how well he has done.

In contrast, I saw another post where McCain had 100 show up for his speech?

Gonna be an interesting campaign.

[Perry Mason]

131. So What?

If it is Clinton or Obama...which one is going to end the war in Iraq? Which one is going to bring about real national healthcare (not health insurance, health CARE)? Which one is going to bring criminal procedings against Bush and his lot? Which one is going to bring our jobs back home? Which one will break the oil company extortion of the American worker?

Which one of them is going to be any different than McCain?

Seems to me a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

[harun]

135. Kick, for a reality based post (n/t)

[grantcart]

165. we need reality on a day like this

[rainbow4321]

137. Best. Post. Ever

The stats are staggering and no HRC supporter spin can change that.


Her trying to claim PA roots is alot like chimp claiming TX roots.


My father's family were all from PA (Italian immigrants turned PA coalminers) and I don't see myself nor would I represent myself as having "PA roots". New Jersey, yes..born/raised, mother's ancestors' names found in multiple NJ history/ancestor literature on the 'Net.

What's next for HRC? NC roots? Guam, perhaps??

[mcollier]

138. Thank for the math lesson again

it seems as if the facts are irrelevant. But just listen to the Obama Crowd get louder.... Click the link in my sig line below...

[grantcart]

141. Indiana

thanks

[swimmernsecretsea]

140. Can't argue with those numbers, and don't want to. nt.

[grantcart]

143. thank you

[Willo]

142. Woohoo Grantcart Excellent! K&R

For the OP and your follow-up responses.

I was reading this and NanceGregg's during lunch at work.

As always, thanks!

[grantcart]

thanks - now get back to work lol

[Willo]

145. LOL, I'm home now...can't respond from work....firewall n/t

[grantcart]

146. ok - never mind lol

[Willo]

147. FYI - if you haven't seen it yet...dbmk has revised his charts at bit

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5608247

[grantcart]

159. saw it I had it framed lol

[Cha]

144. Thank you, Mr Grant!

We are being polite considerating what hilary is busy losing.

[grantcart]

153. thank you zidzi

[no1dolo]

148. But still.........

I just get the feeling that some how, something will happen and the nomination will be stolen from him. It gives me knots in my stomach.

[Cha]

154. You're not alone, nodolo!

Welcome to DU..what a first post:)

[grantcart]

155. welcome to DU

[LaStrega]

149. k&r n/t

[Bensthename]

150. Ouch.. I'm glad Im not a Hillbot.

[existentialist]

152. You skipped a few steps,

Including:


North Carolina


Indiana


Oregon


Montana


South Dakota


The last I've seen Obama was leading in the polling in each of these states--generally by more than the polls have recently shown Clinton to be leading in Pennsylvania.

[grantcart]

163. I am hoping that we can skip them altogether

[evolvingsteve]

156. That was Great!!!!

Well written and right to the points that need to be brought up!


....I believe Obama won in Idaho by 79%,..... I was there, lol. Correct me if I'm wrong, but can you update that if I'm not? Thanks grantcart.


~Steve

[Gman]

157. You were probably right up until November 4 and January 20

Obama will NOT become the president elect and will not take the oath of office. Obama will not win in November. THat's a hard pill to swallow for a lot of people.

[grantcart]

158. And he won't win super Tuesday

and he won't raise any money

and he won't do well in the West

and he won't do well with white voters

and well we have heard it all before and you are now free to join a very large stadium of people who have underestimated him.

[akbacchus_BC]

161. I really hope your prediction is correct. Am pretty scared right now ...

from all accounts, seems as though Senator Clinton will win PA and this primary is gonna be long and drawn out. The eventual Dem nominee will have his/her job cut out as McCain is now touring the poverty states. Am scared that the infighting will continue and McCain will get elected. Deja vue all over again re 2004 when Bush got re-elected! This is not looking good and am sure the world is looking on. Guess I'll pray but am not good at praying!

[grantcart]

162. Relax these people know what they are doing

nothing is more telling than the money statistics.

Her supporters are drying up and his are increasing.


Looke at Intrade.

[azmouse]

164. kick

[azmouse]

166. ...

[uponit7771]

167. kickin it