Goalposts now in NC

[graycem]

I posted this within another thread, but I think it deserves a bit more attention, since I guess some of us missed it. :)



Bill Clinton said Friday in Charlotte that his wife’s presidential bid hinges in many ways on whether the New York senator wins North Carolina’s Democratic primary.

Speaking to about 4,000 at a rally at UNC Charlotte, the former president said Hillary Clinton would likely have to win the state’s May 6 primary to have any chance at winning the overall popular vote and ultimately overtaking Sen. Barack Obama as the party’s nominee.

http://www.charlotte.com/local/story/567422.html

[SoCalDem]

1. and then there will be Guam

:)

[AtomicKitten]

2. OK, here we go ...

[graycem]

3. hehe..

Those boys sure are getting a workout these days! :D

[AtomicKitten]

4. welcome to DU

:hi:

[graycem]

8. Thanks..

I was a lurker for a good while, and was a little intimidated at first, but then I figured the worst that could happen was I could be outed as a kool-aid drinker. Which is funny because I really do like kool-aid. Mmm strawberry. :p

[SwampG8r]

22. im a black cherry man myself

that kool aid is good if you just add a little extra sugar

[graycem]

46. heh..

impeccable taste. :D

[Jensen]

5. LOL...

[frogcycle]

9. yay

as a native Guamanian, I have been rooting for my brothers and sisters on Guam to finally have a say!
:)

[graycem]

6. We need

a nifty goalpost map... it'd be fun to see how these boys have been dragging that heavy thing all over the country. Maybe I'll find Nance's post about the goalposts and put the info into a nice visual. :p

[boppers]

7. She has to raise millions to cover her failures so far.

Literally millions.

She can't back out now.

[tekisui]

10. Hillary win NC, that's not gonna happen.

I've said since before Ohio. It's up to her when she wants to accept her loss.

[jackson_dem]

13. The problem for Obama is there is only one state like NC left

He is likely going to lose 5 out of the next 7, perhaps even 6. Even South Dakota is closer than expected right now and if she wins 5/7 or 6/7 heading into June 3 she would have a good chance to sweep South Dakota and Montana.

[tekisui]

14. I don't see her getting SD or MT.

PA is the only delegate heavy state she can win. NC will erase anything she picked up from PA, and he could win IN. She'd have to win by 60+ to net a single delegate in Guam. WV and KY are her's, but that's the best she's got.

[jackson_dem]

17. If she wins 5 out of 7 she has a good chance at SD or MT

SD and MT have primaries so Obama can't rely on 2% turnout like he did in similar states earlier in the year. People are forgetting this. Obama does far better in sham caucuses (Washington caucus 68-31, WA primary 50-47; Texas caucus 56-44, Texas primary 47-51).

Where she will start to gain delegates is with big wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. She doesn't need to surpass him in pd's. All she has to do is close the gap and by winning most of the remaining states she will do that.

[tekisui]

18. WA Primary had no delegates attached.

Calling caucuses a sham is a defeatist attitude. Obama is the better organizer. She still won't win most of the remaining DELEGATES.

[jackson_dem]

19. It showed how much of a sham 2-5% turnout caucuses are

It also showed how Obama is not nearly as popular as his performance in sham caucuses suggest. He got 79% in a sham caucus in Idaho. That doesn't mean he will get anywhere near that in a primary in Montana.

She will win most of the remaining delegates if she wins most of the remaining states. PA/IN will be canceled out by a big Obama win in NC. She will then make up ground with big wins in WV and KY while basically tying him in delegates in OR or perhaps even narrowly winning. She will win Puerto Rico. Montana and South Dakota are the wild cards.

[newmajority]

33. I suppose the Nevada caucus was a "sham" as well?

Except for Las Vegas, of course. That part was "legit" because Hillary won. Even though she went to court to try to stop it, beforehand.

Seems like Hillbots don't accept the results of any state - or even part of a state - that Hillary loses.

[SwampG8r]

24. this srategy is being discussed too

they say its a sure fire winning way to go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBGyuYKlxIg&eurl

[julialnyc]

26. I don't think she'll get South Dakota or Montana

..... and then there is Oregon where he is supposed to do very well.

[XemaSab]

34. UR HI

Obama's going to win Montana, Oregon, North Carolina, and South Dakota.

Hillary's going to win Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

Indiana? Who knows?

At best, Hillary hopes they split the remaining states 50/50, which still leaves her WAY behind in states won.

[rox63]

11. I suspect the goalposts won't stay in NC for long

Obama's has a big lead there. Indiana next?

[jackson_dem]

12. Obama losing NC would be like Romney losing Utah. It won't happen

You folks are reading too much into a politician flattering an audience. When a musician at a concert says "this is the greatest city!" do you believe it?

[graycem]

16. Of course I don't believe it..

Bill Clinton, if anything, is a VERY intelligent man and politician. He sees the writing on the wall, and he knows the math. But, why would he try to get her to back out at this point? He owes her this.

[terrell9584]

45. That is what may be Obama's downfall

That everyone seems to think that it is a state for him, by just unbelievable margins, never mind the fact that every poll tends to show a large number of undecideds, never mind the fact that it is a state where statewide offices remain under Democratic control, meaning that if they do register by party, then more whites will be registered as Democrats if just so they can have a vote in the primary that they think will count.

In otherwords, the expectations game has been set so high for Obama that it will be real easy for Clinton to claim a moral victory, and to be honest, I think it will be construed as a loss for Obama if he can't win it by a healthy two digit margin, because the current pattern seems to be the writing off of the state, to consider it a Virginia, even though the political history of the state has it as more of a Tennessee kind of place, especially considering that it actually did have a two party system before the 60s, even if one was weaker than the other. I personally don't buy that the state is VA, I think that it is a cross of TN, VA and SC.

It was also a state that Clinton almost won in 1996. I think that they may be calling it too early, the same way that everyone missed Wisconsin. What happened in Wisconsin defied conventional wisdom (demographically) and I think NC may end up being another Wisconsin.

[Eurobabe]

15. Oh bull, it's always been Puerto Rico.

[C_U_L8R]

20. The score is 31 to 15

with many more delegates in favor of Obama. A PA win will make it 31 to 16.
Unless Hillary pulls massive upset in all the remaining contests, she is sunk.
Of course, she and her fans won't spin it that way. But when have they
had any regard for the truth?

[jackson_dem]

21. The actual score is 48.5-47.1. Land doesn't vote, although rethugs and Obamites wish it did

[Joe the Revelator]

28. There you go again, counting Florida in that total, and not counting delegates

Ever get tired of being so intellectually dishonest?

[jackson_dem]

30. lol as if 1.2% makes a difference. Without FL it is 49.5-46.9

[Joe the Revelator]

39. You're right, any way you cut it, Obama is leading

In a stat that doesn't count at all towards the nomination. Great job High Speed.

[TheDoorbellRang]

29. The actual score is 53-47% in PD's. Popular vote doesn't count

altho I'm sure you wish it did. :D

[jackson_dem]

31. 53%. Wow. That is amazing, what a dominating win! Almost like 31 to 15

[TheDoorbellRang]

37. Hey. It beats her full house

:D

[yourguide]

23. Fine by me. Provided that is really the case.

She loses NC and she's out.

[underpants]

25. Clitnon staffers, "What? WHERE now?"

[Why Syzygy]

27. Is she running for the popular vote? Seriously?

She IS way off the track. She continues to emulate GW.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

32. Those goalposts are mounted on roller-coaster wheels.

[mrJJ]

35. GoalPost Moving Company

The non union Clinton Campaign approved Acme GoalPost Moving company; confirms that their personnel are in the following states: (see below) Please note that the PA office is in dire need of temp help. Mr Wolfson has the workers constantly re positioning the cumbersome goalposts hourly. For temp employment opportunities please feel free to drop in at any Clinton campaign HQ to pick up/drop off your employment application. *NOTE* a small non refundable application fee of $100 is required for processing. Thank You

05/03/2008 Guam Democratic

05/06/2008 Indiana Democratic
05/06/2008 North Carolina Democratic

05/13/2008 West Virginia Democratic

05/20/2008 Kentucky Democratic
05/20/2008 Oregon Democratic

06/01/2008 Puerto Rico Democratic

06/03/2008 Montana Democratic
06/03/2008 South Dakota Democratic

[HCE SuiGeneris]

44. Sorry. COD only. Too many promised payment disbursements have been reneged upon.

[futureliveshere]

36. ha ha ha!! this is such a load of BS. Very soon the goal posts will be on the moon!!

welcome to DU
:hi:

[Debi]

38. High Noon in Montana (and no later pardner)

x( Well, unless she can hear Colorado calling....

[helderheid]

40. Man those goalposts are slick!

[kenny blankenship]

41. Only 4000 people show up to see a former President on the campaign trail?

And that's on a college campus. Man that's just... sad.

[NC_Nurse]

42. HELLOOO NC! It's great to be back in Charleston, I mean Charlotte....

whatever, Bill. I'm sure you say that to all the states. }(

[Arugula Latte]

43. Hillary after North Carolina: "It's just a flesh wound!"