The numbers don't lie

[nebula]

The sniper lady is toast.

[Zachstar]

1. The large amount polled is great but let us not get our hopes too high.

My BIG hope is that Obama will keep her win under 5 so that her fund raising will quickly hit a brick wall when people realize she may get but 1 or 2 or 5 net delegates.

It is ALL about the warchest at this point! If she continues to run on little cash Obama will be able to put effort WELL downstream and continue to erode support for her in Indiana.

[nebula]

2. No matter what

Everyone in PA needs to get out and vote on Tuesday.

The country's future is at stake!

[Zachstar]

4. I agree!

[rug]

5. I'll be there!

:patriot:

[ORDem]

10. Let's also keep our perspective. While a PA win for Obama would likely

end this thing sooner, still, it's not going to affect the end result. Obama will within a month have a majority of the pledged delegates. At that point, she's essentially done and the SDs will begin to come over in higher numbers to Obama. She can't change that dynamic even with a 20 point win in PA. Period. End of story.

:dem:

[demwing]

12. Agreed, I believe Obama's comments today underlined this strategy

He knows PA is Clinton Country, and has acted to stay within close range. But spending so voluminously just to stay close? Obama was trying to force Clinton to play high stakes poker, eat up her war chest, and take her out in the primaries down the road.

[BL611]

3. Having a higher sample size

does not necessarily make a poll more accurate 600-800 is typically considered the appropriate sample margin. The difference is projections of regional turnout, PPP must be projecting big Philly turnout. We'll see...

[Zachstar]

6. It lessens the effects of luck on the results.

[gcomeau]

7. I have been and remain skeptical of PPP results.

...regardless of sample size. They're the ones that showed Clinton up by 26 points in PA one week and down by 2 two weeks later. Which did not happen, I guarantee.

Still, I think Obama has a chance at making this close considering all the other polling. Definitely close enough that Clinton should finally be forced to admit the obvious, if not by her staff then by her finances drying up completely when people refuse to donate any more money to a lost cause. If it's even within single digits it's the kiss of death for Clinton. If it's under 5 it's the executioner's ax.

[TheDoorbellRang]

8. Hmm. The polls have been less than stellar this primary season

I am refusing to be overly optimistic or pessimistic at this point.

[Sensitivity]

9. NUMBERS POLLED IS IRRELEVANT. Sampling and Weighting uses a MODEL. This model determines

the poll results which can't be very reliable when the factors in the model are
as unstable as they seem to be in PA -- Catholic conservative bias w/ Pope visit, appeals to
personal character issues, racial tensions and Bradley effect, youth vote w unknown % w landlines,
etc

MORE CORRECTLY: NUMBER AFFECTS MARGIN OF ERROR ASSUMING UNDERLYING BEHAVIORAL MODEL IS STABLE.

[HereSince1628]

11. Both sides want low, low expectations.

At this point this favorable outlier works against Obama.