My prediction: Clinton 57%, Obama 42%

[Bread and Circus]

I don't normally make predictions but my sense is that Clinton will win generously. I hope I'm wrong and Obama does a whole lot better. I can't imagine him doing worse, but hey.

Either way, two things:

1.) Obama supporters: get braced for a cold dose of reality, Clinton still has a bulwark of "low information" and white middle-aged female voters.

2.) Clinton supporters: If Clinton fails to get over 60% Tuesday, she should get out of the race altogether. If she wins by more than 60%, she can go on with her Quixotic effort to bring the party down.

[cliffordu]

1. I couldn't agree more...

Really. :sarcasm:



:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Milo_Bloom]

2. 60% seems to be the magic number.

She needs to break 60% to get the nomination... I ran the slate delegate calculator with 60% wins in every remaining state AND a 60% win with the remaining SD's and she was STILL short for the nomination.

[Bucky]

22. The magic number is probably under 50%. If she leads at all, she'll continue

The only way for certain she'd drop out is if she's put out by a +5% margin. Do not underestimate her determination.

[Milo_Bloom]

25. No question she will continue to bang her head against the wall.

But the reality is at less than 60%, she doesn't have any path left to the nomination.

[Bucky]

31. I don't worry about whether I'm going to lose a fight with a scorpion.

I worry about whether I get poisoned before I can finish stomping it down.

[book_worm]

3. you could be right and we'll just have to try to get her out with wins in Indiana and NC

[MercutioATC]

9. I'll give her a 5-point win in Indiana. NC? No friggin' way.

What some don't seem to realize is that unless she wins EVERY remaining state by 28 points, she can't overtake Obama. Every race in which she fails to do that makes the task that much more difficult.

This problem of hers perfectly illustrates the value of Dean's 50-state strategy. Clinton took the "big" states that she targeted ion the beginning, but then had to deal with a string of Obama wins in "small" states that changed the public's perception of where the campaigns stood. Her gain in the "big" state of Ohio wound up being only 7 delegates and she lost Texas. PA has always been a state she was going to win...not too long ago, by 20 points. Her problem is that her support has slipped and, even if she does get a 20-point win, it's no longer enough for her to gain any real ground.

I was a Dean supporter in 2004. I understand what it is to really want your candidate to win. Without some massive insider shenanigans, (which would, most likely, cause severe damage to the party as a whole) Clinton has no chance of winning the nomination.

I'm not calling for her to drop out of the race, I'm just asking her and her supporters to consider the facts...and what extreme measures would have to be taken for her to win.

[washingdem]

4. He'll finish her off in Indiana.

[Armstead]

5. If so, her quest to turn the Democratic Party into the Pale Shade of GOP will continue

[lapfog_1]

6. A little less pessimistic than you... 55 - 45 - n/t

[racaulk]

7. What are you predicting? The number of delegates they *won't* have at the convention?

:crazy:

Clinton may go on to win PA tomorrow, but there's no way she will win it by 15 points. The race will be much closer than that.

[demwing]

8. Fair enough - BUT

Point 2, you've got the race dated today, not Tuesday.

[Bread and Circus]

10. fixed, thanks.

[Sinistrous]

11. Probably will be fairly close to your guesstimate.

The number of "low information" voters, coupled with the outright bigots in PA is staggering. You also have to figure in the effect of the non-verifiable electronic machines that are used in huge numbers.

[GoesTo11]

12. Some people call you low information voters. I call you my base.

[mcctatas]

13. My prediction:

someone will eventually win the nomination, but it won't be Hillary...

[Bread and Circus]

14. Bump.... here's hoping Obama will do better than I expect...

[Buzz Clik]

15. Bookmarked!

[Buzz Clik]

32. ..

[Independent-Voter]

16. Her base of low-educated / low-informed older white voters will carry PA

[tritsofme]

18. His base of low-educated / low-informed black voters will carry NC

[Independent-Voter]

34. Actually, the Triangle area of NC has the highest rates of PhD's in the country

Care to guess which way the Triangle is leaning? It sure as hell isn't for The Shrew.

[datopbanana]

17. I predicted 12% HRC win on April 11. 56-44

[DerekJ]

19. Sounds about right .. I'm hoping for a 53- 46 (or 47) however

[EFerrari]

20. That sounds as good as any predication I've heard. n/t

[BobbyVan]

21. Obama by 10

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5619413&mesg_id=5619413

[DerekJ]

23. Optimistic much?!!

:) :hi:

[uponit7771]

24. Upside of Hillary getting 60 is more registered dems to vote in GE

[Awsi Dooger]

26. I love the summations of Hillary supporters

* "Low information"

* "Losers"

* "The ignorant vote"

Those are some of the recent beauties on DU. Yet somehow the Obama supporters thrill to assert they have taken the high road, along with their candidate. Unbelievable.

My synopsis of Obama is over valued. Someone who fell into this couch when Hillary's campaign horrifically miscalculated a few areas, specifically the cumulative impact of smaller states. Obama violates many of the typical necessities to win an open race, i.e. experience and resume.

But I would never dream of lumping Obama supporters as overall ignorant or lesser, yet that's what flows from this forum daily.

I was appreciative recently when a couple of Obama supporters, classy DUers who seldom post but I always respect their opinion, said they remain Obama loyalists but they are disgusted by the Obama backers on DU.

[shayes51]

29. Thanks for your post.

[Bread and Circus]

30. My best friend is PhD, he is for Hillary, he is doesn't even know what the DLC is...

He is a low information voter.

I have another friend who lives in a million dollar house, she's 60, very smart, she is for Hillary. She doesn't know who Mark Penn is. She is a low information voter.

Both people were more likely to be critical of Clinton when I explained to them some basic important facts. That's what we are up against.

I never said low information voters were poor, uneducated, or stupid.

[chyjo]

27. my guess is

54-46 with Clinton winning. I would not be shocked with 57-42 though.

[nxylas]

28. Call me cynical, but...

...I predict she'll win the election by however many points Ed Rendall wants her to win it by.

[Buzz Clik]

33. Nope! Less than 10%. Game over.

[Bread and Circus]

35. I think Obama did better than expected. I'm mostly happy with the results.