Primary MATH Made Easy with the Delegate Calculator

[tiptoe]

Primary MATH Made Easy with the Delegate Calculator
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ThePrimaryMATHCalculator.htm

OK, let’s assume that Hillary wins each remaining primary by 20%.
I know you don’t believe this would ever happen. But let’s play what-if.
In this outrageous scenario, assume HRC wins PA, NC, IN and all other states by 60–40%.

Even assuming this ridiculous scenario, Obama would still lead in pledged delegates by 1643-1595.
He already has 232 super delegates, so he would need just 149 (49%) of the 303 uncommitted SDs to clinch the nomination.

Now download the Excel Delegate Calculator and run your own scenarios.

DELEGATE CALCULATOR
TruthIsAll

PRE- MARCH 4    Pledged         Vote share %           Delegates
                Delegates        BO     HRC            BO    HRC
       Total      2253         52.3%   47.7%         1207   1046
 
POST-MARCH 4    Pledged         Vote share %           Delegates
                Delegates        BO     HRC            BO    HRC
03/04  OH          141           45     55             65     76
03/04  RI           21           41     59              8     13
03/04  TX          193           47     51             99     94
03/04  VT           15           59     39              9      6
03/08  WY           12           61     38              7      5
03/11  MS           33           61     37             20     13
       Total       415         48.0%   52.0%          208    207

CURRENT TOTAL     2668         51.4%   48.6%         1415   1253

PROJECTED                       Vote share %           Delegates
Date            Delegates        BO     HRC            BO    HRC
04/22  PA          158           40     60             63     95
05/03  Guam          4           40     60              2      2
05/06  IN           72           40     60             29     43
05/06  NC          116           40     60             46     70
05/13  WV           28           40     60             11     17
05/20  KY           52           40     60             21     31
05/20  OR           52           40     60             21     31
06/01  PR           56           40     60             22     34
06/03  MT           16           40     60              6     10
06/03  SD           16           40     60              6     10
       Total       570          40.0%  60.0%          228    342

TOTAL PROJECTED   3238          49.4%  50.6%         1643   1595

FLORIDA & MICHIGAN              Vote share %           Delegates
Date            Delegates        BO     HRC            BO    HRC
-TBD-  FL          186           50     50             93     93
-TBD-  MI          128           50     50             64     64
       Total       314          50.0%  50.0%          157    157

TOTAL PROJECTED   3552          49.4%  50.6%         1800   1752

                Pledged Delegates          Super         Total
              Current     Projected       Current      Projected
Obama           1415         228            232           1875
Clinton         1253         342            259           1854
Remain                                      303            303
Total           2668         570            794           4032

Sensitivity Analysis
                                 Obama Projected Share of Remaining Pledged Delegates
Delegates           36%      38%      40%      42%       4%      46%      48%      50%      52%      54%
Pledged                                	   	      	       	        	 	  	    
BO                  205      217      228      239      251      262      274      285      296      308
HRC                 365      353      342      331      319      308      296      285      274      262
   
Projected Total Pledged
BO                 1620     1632     1643     1654     1666     1677     1689     1700     1711     1723
HRC                1618     1606     1595     1584     1572     1561     1549     1538     1527     1515
Diff                  2       25       48       71       94      116      139      162      185      208

Projected Pledged + Current Super
BO                 1848     1860     1871     1882     1894     1905     1917     1928     1939     1951
HRC                1873     1861     1850     1839     1827     1816     1804     1793     1782     1770
Diff               (25)      (2)       21       44       67       89      112      135      158      181
   
Incl FL/MI
BO                 2005     2017     2028     2039     2051     2062     2074     2085     2096     2108
HRC                2030     2018     2007     1996     1984     1973     1961     1950     1939     1927
Diff               (25)      (2)       21       44       67       89      112      135      158      181
 
Super (w/o FL/MI)	        Obama  Share of Uncommitted Super Delegates Needed to Clinch 
Delegates           176      164      153      142      130      119      107       96       85       73
Share              56.5%    52.9%    49.2%    45.5%    41.9%    38.2%    34.5%    30.9%    27.2%    23.5%
	

[LakeSamish706]

1. I'm certain that you will be chastised for making mathematical sense here...

So you better get your flame retardant suit ready....

[floridablue]

2. flame flame

So if Senator Clinton got all the Florida and Michigan votes as she should, that would project her has the winner would it not?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. no - it doesn't ! I ran that once and she's still short - by just a

few - but still short. I actually have no problem with counting
FL as is. But, since his name wasn't even a choice in MI - I'd
have to have a re-run or something on that one.

[BlooInBloo]

4. It's been well-known....

EDIT: From almost a month ago:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chip-collis/top-10-myths-keeping-hill_b_94207.html

"Top 10 Myths Keeping Hillary in the Race
.
.
.
Myth: Very well, then, Mr. Smarty-Math. But if we counted Michigan and Florida, THEN Hillary would be winning!

Nooo, she wouldn't. The margin would depend on how you allocate the delegates, but Obama would still be ahead. And he'd still be about 100,000 ahead in the popular vote, too, despite not even being on the ballot in Michigan. However, it would enhance Hillary's chances of catching up in the remaining races.

Myth: Ah HA! So Dean is keeping them out just to help Obama! And Obama is keeping them out.

That's two myths, but I'll treat it like one. The only people who can come up with a solution to this problem are the states themselves, to be presented to the Rules and Regulations Committee of the DNC for ratification. It was Rules and Regs, not Howard Dean, who ruled that Florida and Michigan were breaking the rules when they presented their original primary plans. If the two states cannot come up with a plan to reselect delegates, they can try to seat whatever delegates were chosen in the discounted primaries by appealing to the Democratic Convention's Credentialing Committee, which includes many members from Rules and Bylaws.

Myth: If they don't get seated until the convention but a nominee is selected before these poor people get counted then these states are disenfranchised.

There are two ways to debunk this myth: semantically and practically. The first is based on the word "disenfranchised:" these people have not been deprived of their right to vote. Through the actions of their states, their votes don't impact the outcome. Now, you may say that that is specious semantics (Myth: I do say that!) but practically speaking, this is the usual effect of the nominating process, anyway. All of the Republican primaries since McCain clinched the nomination have been meaningless, but those voters are not disenfranchised.

Florida and Michigan tried to become more relevant in the process by breaking the rules. They risked becoming irrelevant instead.

Myth: Well, I say they are disenfranchised, and Hillary Clinton is their champion.

Only when it suits her. Last fall, when the decision was first made to flush 100% of Michigan and Florida delegates, Clinton firmly ratified it. That was because the typical punishment of only 50% representation also kept the candidates from raising money in those states. Figuring that she would wrap up the nomination handily anyway, the clear front-runner agreed with all the other candidates - including Obama - to completely "disenfranchise" those two states.
.
.
.
"

[helderheid]

5. TRUTHISALL! Oh it's been too long since I saw that name!

[jefferson_dem]

8. Long time indeed. Is that poster still with us here at DU?

n/t

[tiptoe]

9. good timing

A nice reception for the original "To Believe Bush Won.."

I added a list updated just this March by TIA, originally posted on geocities.com

[bobbert]

6. deleted

I just realized the OP isn't a crazy Hillbot

[tiptoe]

12. K!

[tiptoe]

7. K & R !

[cliffordu]

10. I LOVE MATH!!!!

:hi:

[tiptoe]

11. April 23 Update -- PA primary results are now included in the updated Excel Delegate Calculator:

Download the model and run your own scenarios:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1488-1338 in pledged delegates.
On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). Her lead has been cut to 24 (262-238).

For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs 68% of the vote in the remaining primaries.
If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 32% of the 295 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.
...
This is a graph of the required super delegates () needed by Obama to win the nomination over various projected primary vote shares.
...