PA is looking more and more like Texas.

[Drunken Irishman]

I'm not saying it'll break like Texas, but it has nearly the same feel.

Two weeks before the primary, Obama finally took the lead in Texas and held it until a few days out, when polls began to pick up a Clinton surge. It was large enough to erase Obama's lead and actually put her over the top. I'm getting the same sense, but reversed this time around. Clinton has pretty much led PA for months and in the final hours of the campaign, polls show a noticeable shift toward Obama. Now I'm not sure if it'll be enough to put him over the top, but it probably means, if he loses, it won't be by much and that's what Obama wanted all along. The trend favors him and it's actually best that he's surging a couple of days before the election, because it means his momentum won't stall prior to election day. That's what happened in Texas, as Obama surged for about a week and then leveled out. Had the Texas primary been held a week earlier, Obama probably would have won. I think we're going to see the same thing play out this time around, however, it'll benefit Obama instead of Clinton.

[Justitia]

1. But the good news is that Obama DID win TX: Obama - 99, Clinton - 94. -eom

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Well yes, that was good news.

But had he won the popular vote, along with the delegate count, the election would most likely have ended.

The media was building Texas up as an Obama win, even though the polls showed it shifting toward Clinton in the final hours. Now they're doing the reverse, building PA up as a Clinton win and stating she needs to win it by double digits to carry on. If the trend is true, that ain't happening and it will be a huge blow to her campaign.

[hell-bent]

11. Oh, let's not forget that excellent example of democracy

in action with Hillary winning the popular vote by 101,029 votes but losing Texas by your standards. WTF kind of undemocratic crap is this where one candidate is the favorite choice by 101,029 votes over the other and yet loses! Sounds like some kind of voting that went on in the Soviet Union. "It's not who gets the most votes; it's who counts the votes."......Stalin

[Justitia]

13. blah, blah, blah - didn't hear any complaints when Bill Clinton swept Texas.

Clinton supporters can complain NOW about their sour grapes over losing TX, but they LOVED the state system when they won it twice in the 90s.

you should listen to your candidate "If you can't take the heat....get out of Texas" :P

[stellanoir]

2. Little known fact

he did win after the caucuses and the convention.

[NightWatcher]

3. I would love to see Hillary net 10 delegates into Obama's 170 point lead

then we can hear that "Pennsylvania is not important, but Puerto Rico is"

[GoneOffShore]

7. Even if it's a shut-out you'll hear that, grasshopper.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Master Po?

[here_is_to_hope]

15. At least Puerto Rico has some decent surf...

:spank: :spank: :spank:

[AtomicKitten]

5. Obama is taking no prisoners. He's not going to let her steal this from him.

He's holding her margins down, cutting her off from gaining an inch of ground.

Block by block, state by state.

[Cant trust em]

6. We're not seeing the same kitchen sink strategy

that wound up damagine Obama two days before the primary.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yup...I honestly think they don't have anything left.

[babylonsister]

9. She's tried her damndest, but I think she's out of kitchen sinks. nt

[Cant trust em]

10. I hope we don't get anymore Obama gaffes

As much as I totally agreed with him on "bittergate", it was a headache that we didn't have to experience. Since I doubt this whole thing will end by tomorrow, I hope he doesn't put his foot in his mouth anymore.

[babylonsister]

12. I'm afraid there will be more; he'll be ganged up again on

even perceived gaffes. As much as I like him taking the high road, I do think he has to defend himself more, and give as good as he gets. He can do that without sinking to her level. He is getting better at it, and humor does work.

[Cant trust em]

22. He was pretty soft on her at last week's debate

I expected him to crush her over Tuzla. He let it slide.

[LynneSin]

14. With the SEIU backing Obama I'm predicting that Obama will pull out a squeaker in PA

I've watched the SEIU in action many many times; in fact, Philadelphia HQ for many major campaigns are usually at the SEIU HQ off of Spring Garden Avenue. SEIU will give their voters the day off to help get out the vote, but that's not the reason why Obama will win.

See, hundreds of volunteers from the suburbs will descend into Philadelphia to help get out the vote and they will be distributed to locations where suburbanites would want to go to help get out the vote - Main Line, Great Northeast, Old City, Manayunk and other middle class on up areas. But that leaves a large chunk of Philadelphia not canvased - North & West Philly. Areas where suburbanites would prefer to not go. However, the SEIU has no problem sending their members into these regions. They'll go in there with buses and gather up voters to get them to the polls. And they'll get high voter turnout in those regions.

I think that this is one major factor that will help Pennsylvania go to Obama. You get high voter turnout in Philadelhpia, and that was easily done for the 2002 Dem primary election when Ed Rendell wanted an upset over Bob Casey Jr, you need high voter turnout in Philadelphia.

[catgirl]

16. I hope you're right!

[LynneSin]

23. Let's put it this way - if I'm wrong, it's still not going to help Hillary

She needs a major upset in Pennsylvania. I think worse case she's going to pull out a squeaker.

[caledesi]

17. I agree! 83,000 SIEU members! NT

[caledesi]

18. I agree! 83,000 SIEU members! NT

[ecstatic]

19. There is a disconnect that I don't understand: They are saying the race

is neck and neck--but how is it that Clinton is not raising any money? If people want her to be the next president, where are the matching donations? Where is the financial support?

[PBS Poll-435]

21. Did they strike oil?