How Obama Will Win Pennsylvania

[Avalux]

He does it the same way Rendell did in 2002. Political experts from Franklin and Marshall college who have studied Rendell's success detail how Obama can get it done. Ever since I read this a month or so ago, I knew it was possible for Obama to win. It's a good read.

Obama's Keys to the Keystone State

-excerpt-

Measured against Rendell’s 2002 template, Obama’s chances are not unpromising. He is positioned to emulate the Rendell strategy to a greater extent than is generally recognized. Essentially he must win the same ten counties Rendell won in 2002, while reducing Clinton’s margins in her strongholds. Currently he leads in Philly and will likely win the city decisively, making the suburbs a major battleground. The Democratic voters there largely mirror the upscale, affluent voters Obama has been attracting nationally: they are the most liberal in the state, strongly oppose the Iraq War, and have a low regard for President Bush. For insurance Obama needs to join the Philadelphia suburbs to the two pivotal swing areas, the Lehigh Valley and Southcentral, where the Democrats are moderate to liberal and where he currently polls well against Senator Clinton. Beyond this managing turnout will be crucial for him.

Rendell in 2002 was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This is central to any Obama victory. To win he must push his turnout higher in the Southeast. Here enthusiasm and Obama volunteers could make a big difference. The Obama campaign has already begun a major voter registration drive to add Democrats to the roles. The current Democratic pickup is 65,000, most of whom will be Obama voters.

Few people in 2002 thought Rendell could do it—lose half the state and more than 85% of all counties, run against a political icon, and still win. And few now think Obama can do it. Nevertheless many otherwise astute politicians in 2002 ended up scrubbing abundant amounts of Pennsylvania egg off their faces when Rendell’s electoral map showed how it could be done. The state’s 2008 egg supply is said to be healthy which is good—they might be needed again.

http://www.fandm.edu/x17958.xml

[Eurobabe]

1. Obama will take the Southeast corridor of PA

and he will win, but it will be a squeaker finish.

Hey, if it's a blow out, I won't complain! :toast:

[Avalux]

4. I also think it will be a squeaker finish and we won't know for sure until Wednesday.

A blowout WOULD be nice! :hi:

[mystieus]

2. Yes we can!

[meow mix]

3. "The state’s 2008 egg supply is said to be healthy which is good"

:rofl: :rofl:

[GoesTo11]

5. You could make a lot of money on intrade

Obama Pennsylvania shares are going for 7 cents on the dollar.

[Avalux]

6. Thanks for the tip. Come back and talk to me after tnmorrow.

:hi: