Clinton must win by 20... no, wait, make that thirty, uh, -five points tomorrow to claim a victory

[Bucky]

Wait, no, that's a moronic thing to say. The reality tomorrow is that a win's a win and a loss is a loss. Anyone handicapping, anyone offering any kind of point spread on this contest is loony. Neither candidate will back down tomorrow. For that matter, neither candidate can be wounded enough tomorrow to even begin anything like a downward spiral.

They're both in for the long haul. Save your predictions of immenent doom. They're both hard-ass marathoners in this race. Anyone predicting otherwise is doing so in direct contradiction to what past performances show.

[meow mix]

1. NC/OR will destroy her for good

cant wait

[Oleladylib]

2. guess "yule" gis hafta...don't hold yer breath!

[Bucky]

5. Yeah, right. Dream on, my friend.

I ain't scared of an honest argument. I sure wouldn't support a candidate that can be shot down by the marshmallow hits Clinton is throwing at Obama.

[FARAFIELD]

3. The facts are

That every state she is way ahead in, he either beats her or catches up (she was way ahead six weeks ago). So she may win, but she didnt build her lead. Politics is perception most of the time, and since a DEM will win PA anyhow whats the point. Now if she took her 15% lead and had built on that, then we could have a blow out discussion. But she just cant do it.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. It's about perception, baby.

Clinton needs to build some perception to eat away at Obama's leads in Indiana and North Carolina. If the perception coming out of PA is that she didn't do enough, then she won't be able to raise the funds and compete at the level needed to stop an Obama blowout. Now I know she can bank on Kentucky and West Virginia, however, West Virginia comes a week after the Indiana and North Carolina primary and by that time, it will be over.

The problem Clinton faces is that even if she stays in until West Virginia and wins big, the Kentucky primary will be competing with the Oregon one. So any gain she gets in Kentucky will be lost by the time Oregon's returns roll in. That leaves 3 races, and she'll only probably be favored in one: Puerto Rico.

[Johnny__Motown]

6. Yes a win is a win and a loss is a loss... just like she lost 13 in a row. Obama's delegate lead is

insurmountable

[gcomeau]

7. "a win's a win and a loss is a loss" -- Ummmm, no.

Not in a system with proportional allocation of delegates it isn't. which you know perfectly well considering how many states we've been through this on now.

Keep desperately grasping for some way to justify Clinton remaining in this after PA when it becomes yet more clear that she has no prayer. We're not buying it over here.

[Bucky]

10. "desperately grasping" ? What is your basis for characterizing me that way?

And yes, in a proportional allocation of delegates, a win is a win and a loss is still a loss. All proportional allocation does is prevent idiot Republican Party-style windfalls when some clown gets 51% of the vote, but 100% of the delegates.

As an Obama supporter, I have no reason to "justify Clinton" doing anything. Why you would ASS-U-ME I'm for Clinton speaks to your lack of perspective.

[cui bono]

8. Not when she's set this state up as her (new) firewall state.

It used to be Texas but, well, we know what happened there....

So now it's PA. She was ahead 20 points and now it has possibly dwindled to 0, depending on which poll you look at today. So no, a win by 1-5 points for her is a loss for her since it shows how far she has fallen in the eyes of PA voters.

She may want to stay in the race but if she doesn't pull off at least a double digit win the SDs will most likely start coming out for Obama and the party leaders and SDs will most likely start talking to her about dropping out. That's hardly a win.

Also, if it's as even as it looks she might pull off a gain of 200,000 or so votes, but that's not going to put a big enough dent in the overall popular vote total which may or not be this week's or today's reason of why the SDs should vote for her, but puts that argument out to pasture. Well for any reasonable, logical human being capable of rational thought. Of course she'll find some other method that she will state is the real way to show she should be the nominee.

[OzarkDem]

9. No, 50..wait.. I mean 100

Obama supporters are so easy to ridicule. :rofl:

[Bucky]

11. Yes, it stands in such stark contrast to the maturity of the Clinton campaign's hysterics.

You can support Clinton. Or you can laugh at groups of Democrats who are less mature than you. You can't do both.

[BlooInBloo]

12. (shrug) Ok. Then by your standards, no matter what happens tomorrow, she'll be losing.

[Bucky]

13. Pretty much, yes. It's not like PA is representative of the whole country.

[quantass]

14. k

[PanchoBass]

15. Obama supporters know they will lose, so they are setting the bar high

They give you these humongous numbers that Clinton needs to get just so they can claim victory no matter what.

[demwing]

17. Actually, no. I predict a two point win for Obama

because it doesn't really matter if I'm wrong (I'm not :) ). Hillary has already lost the primary.

[ginnyinWI]

21. if she wins, it still doesn't matter.

A win just means we prolong this thing until May 6th. If she loses, she'll be pushed out very soon.

Obama has a 140 pledged delegate lead.

[Orsino]

16. Goal posts move again!

Perhaps to where they should have been all along.

[Bucky]

18. That's my thinking

That, plus we worry too much about the horse race around here. I'm really grateful for the occasion rare post dedicated to beating up on John McCain.

[Milo_Bloom]

19. She has virtually no path to the nomination.

Thus, she has already lost.

So her win, is still a loss, UNLESS she breaks the 60% barrier, at what point IF she puts together a STRING of 20 point victories in EVERY SINGLE STATE AND convinces a full 60% of the remaining Super Delegates to vote for her.. THEN she would be within a few delegates of the magic number.

If she wins by 10%, then she has to get 65% across the board AND 65% of the remaining super delegates.

[stray cat]

20. If you go from postive 20 to positive 5 it looks like a decrease

[Bucky]

23. Agreed. And yet that's still a spin.

If she tumbled so far so fast, how come he still can't bury her the rest of the way? The pattern is clear, sadly. When he shows up in the big states, her numbers quickly collapse until about 10 days out from the voting. Then she hits a plateau just a few points north of 50% and coasts to a narrow victory.

It's goddamn annoying, I tell you. I feel like Van Helsing in one of those old Hammer movies screeching at Dracula, "Damn you, monster, why won't you stay down?"

[Window]

22. The goal posts, the goal posts, the goal posts are hot...she can't be Sen. Obama with the stuff

she's got. Period.