Al Giordano at The Field Predicts Clinton Wins PA 52-48, but Only +4 Delegates

[jefferson_dem]

The Pennsylvania Primary: A Clinton Win, but Only +4 Delegates

By Al Giordano



First, a shout out to some other bloggers that have been doing the same kind of detailed numbers-crunching efforts, in each of Pennsylvania’s 19 Congressional Districts, that we’ve wracking our brains with here.

Each of their predictions could be more accurate than mine:

Elliot at Election Inspection predicts: Clinton 56 percent, Obama 44

PsiFighter37 predicts: Clinton 54 percent, Obama 46

Poblano predicts: Clinton 53.7, Obama 46.3

Interestingly, although their predicted statewide margins of victory differ – 12 percent, 8 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively - they each calculate 85 delegates for Clinton to 73 for Obama.

That is mathematically possible in all three cases, because it depends so much on 19 different district subtotals.

Second, the Pennsylvania primary is about which candidate has expanded his or her coalition (or not) since the March 4 Ohio primary. Ohio and Pennsylvania being so demographically similar, the fact remains that Clinton has always been expected to win Pennsylvania by an even wider margin than her 10.5 percent (+7 delegate) Ohio victory because, unlike Ohio, Pennsylvania has a primary that is closed to Independent and crossover voters.

Here are the true yardsticks that superdelegates, political reporters, pundits and bloggers should be using to conclude which candidate is advancing based on tomorrow’s results, according to the Ohio exit poll:

Among Ohio Democrats: Clinton 56, Obama 42 (+14)

Among White Democrats in Ohio: Clinton 70, Obama 27 (+43)

Among African-American Democrats in Ohio: Clinton 12, Obama 88 (-76)

Senator Clinton’s adventures since the March primaries in pastor-bashing and trying to seize upon Obama’s statement about “bitter” rural voters make it clear that her entire play in Pennsylvania has been pitched at white voters.

Presuming (as I do) that the African-American voting patterns will be very similar to those in most previous primaries (88 to 90 percent for Obama), the bar for Clinton among white Democratic voters was set by Ohio: If she doesn’t exceed the 70 percent vote she got from them in Ohio, she will not have expanded her support. If she falls behind among white voters, it will mean that her “rural” gambit – negative ads and all – will have objectively failed.

The final Survey USA poll of 1,800 Pennsylvania voters taken Friday through Sunday – after Obama’s difficult debate last Wednesday and after Clinton had hit the airwaves with a negative anti-Obama barrage pitched at white voters – suggests that Clinton has not expanded her support among Caucasians, but but in fact has lost support, now with 58 percent to now 36 for Obama.

The Field estimates that Clinton will get about 62 percent of the white vote in Pennsylvania to 38 percent for Obama, which would mark a greater than 10 percent slippage in her white support base since Ohio (conversely, with Obama growing from 27 percent to 38 percent, that would represent, if The Field is correct, a 40 percent growth for Obama among white voters since Ohio). Watch the Pennsylvania exit poll numbers tomorrow night for that data.

There will be regions in the western part of the state where Clinton will likely exceed that 70 percent: the 4th and 12th Congressional Districts, where Bill Clinton has spent most of his time in recent days. That will give her an extra 7 delegates out of just two CDs. But I’ve adjusted my predictions in various other rural Pennsylvania districts where Obama will now now hold her to a one delegate lead or fight her to a draw.

My preliminary predictions for Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, made on March 12, was that Clinton would win 26 more delegates than Obama, with a margin of 16 to 20 points.

A lot has happened in the past 40 days and while it probably won’t be enough to push Obama to a game-ending majority, here are my final district by district predictions:

CD 1: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 2: Clinton 2, Obama 7 (+5 Obama)
CD 3: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 4: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 5: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+2 Clinton)
CD 6: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (+0)
CD 7: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 8: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 9: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (+1 Clinton)
CD 10: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 11: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 12: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 13: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 14: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (+1 Clinton)
CD 15: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 16: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 17: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 18: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+3 Clinton)
CD 19: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)

Subtotal District Delegates: Clinton 53, Obama 50

As for the overall statewide vote, Clinton will win, but I think by a narrower margin than my esteemed colleagues above – and almost everyone else – have predicted.

The Field predicts:

Clinton 52.3 percent
Obama: 47.7

<SNIP>

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1095

[TheDoorbellRang]

1. What's his track record in calling it?

I would be quite happy if he's correct

[jefferson_dem]

3. Solid.

Al knows his shit. I too hope he's right this time.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?s=predictions

[TheDoorbellRang]

5. Hmmm. Looks like he DOES know his shit

A 4 delegate gain for Clinton isn't what one could call stunning, eh? :spray:

[Aloha Spirit]

2. Hillary doesn't care about delegates, just about winning. Pledged delegates are a non-issue for her.

[slinkerwink]

4. interesting

[Zachstar]

6. If it is less than 30 delegates then this race is effectively over.

Now don't yell I just said "effectively" not saying Clinton is going to be forced out or anything.

However because of the lack of delegates up for Grabs she has to effectively NEUTRALIZE the effects of an Obama win in North Carolina and work hard to have a HUGE win in Indiana if she wants to stand even a snowballs chance in hell at getting close to Obama in pledged delegate lead with ALL remaining states.

So if she cant even get enough delegates to round down Obamas lead to 100 delegates then she is going to go into May QUITE weak.

Yes she will get a million or two for the warchest. But I am quite sure Obama will raise just that much between the primary and May 1. And he still has many millions to spend.

[Ichingcarpenter]

7. I said 4 points last week

should be the most exciting night of the primary, even better than super tuesday.

[TheDonkey]

8. 53-48 would actually be pretty huge

win for Obama. I still think Hillary could win by 8pts and that is ok.