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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:08 PM
Original message
Obama folks, I'm depressed
I said last week that we would know what the Obama campaign's internal polling was saying when we found out where he planned to spend Tuesday night. She's going to be in Philly, while he will have moved on to Indiana. That means internal polling in both campaigns shows that she is going to win, and probably win big. I knew she was going to win but now it's pretty definite, and I'm feeling really demoralized. I know they said he couldn't win, but I still held out hope that he could, and now it's sinking in and I'm having a hard time staying motivated to go out canvassing tomorrow instead of going back to Washington and getting back to work. I know the margin matters, but working to keep the margin in single digits is harder to get motivated about than working to bring it home. When I got home from canvassing before in South Philly I was optimistic, but now I am pretty demoralized.
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NeedleCast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:09 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nothing to be depressed about
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
85. Precisely. Obama's won more states, more votes, more delegates, etc., etc.
He will win the majority of pledged delegates in about a month, the SDs will then really starting flowing to his side and it's all over but the fat lady (or blonde in pantsuit) to start singing. It can't happen soon enough, though. McSame is getting an absolutely free ride while we continue to haggle out this primary season.

:dem:
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washingdem Donating Member (467 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. It sucks, but he will beat her in Indiana and end this thing.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. He'll lose by 8, I think. He'll be fine.
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tishaLA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
22. that's been my prediction since the beginning
and you're right. He'll be fine.
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ZinZen Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
80. I like Al Giordano's analysis
over the "The Field". This guy has been pretty spot on about the primaries and his take is that she only nets four delegates over Obama. Fine by me!
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #80
94. Thats what I arrived at too
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
4. Its tough when its your own state.
But you should be proud of what you have done for your candidate and especially with how you have conducted yourself on this board.


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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. FIne post, rinsd.
Thanks for taking the high road.
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sellitman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #4
32. You are a class act.
Not too many of you left on either side of this Primary.

Thanks for leading the way.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #32
39. Its people like the OP that deserve such praise.
I am hardly an innocent and certainly regret my behavior at times this primary season.

But the OP even in the face of vulgarity that is GDP has remained thoughtful and decent.

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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. don't be depressed. He will do fine.
He may not win PA but it won't be a devastating loss and it will make hardly a dent (I predict) delegate wise. We'll hope to close the sale in Indiana and North Carolina.
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tularetom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. Define "win"
Sure she will probably get more votes in the popular vote, but not enough to translate into any appreciable narrowing of the delegate gap. He is still miles ahead and she will not win by enough to change the math. Its easy to get discouraged when you've worked so hard but not to worry, it's all gonna come out OK in the end. She can't win.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
7. Don't be depressed Clinton is winning a state
she obviously should have won.

Don't listen to Hillary fans saying "well he had so much money blah blah blah".

The truth is, he did one hell of an effort and some states you just can't win.

The same will be true soon for Hillary in NC. :)
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
8. is there really a corrolation
of where he is that night, and whether he wins? Wouldn't it make sense to be on to the next state?

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
52. That's what I was thinking when I first
read that Obama was going to be in Indiana tomorrow night. That his work in Philly was done for now and on to Indiana..not thinking about "victory speeches" as such.

Hey, miracles could happen and he could give a rousing one from where he happens to be.

Evansville, Indiana joined by John Melloncamp on stage..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5609926
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
9. i'm cautiously optimistic.
and i have been so far because i have no choice.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
10. Why Worry? Unless Something Bizarre Happens...
Obama has the nomination sewn up.

Your good work might mean an extra delegate for Obama.
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Yurovsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:21 PM
Original message
thank you ...
a lot of people are simply freaking out when there is absolutely no reason to.

The only way HRC gets the nomination is if she steals it, and if she does, Denver is going to get ugly.
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C_U_L8R Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
11. Maybe she's not going to Indiana
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:30 PM by C_U_L8R
because this is the end of the line...

or she's out of money

edit; besides Philly is Obama's... wtf
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
12. It's like the Tour de France - it's not about the winner of this-or-that stage....
... it's about the winner. You did good - you helped keep his lead in the entire race. No one wins every stage.
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
13. Hey...hang in there
I don't want him to win but I don't want you demoralized (Seriously.)

The democrats need people like you to build the coalition to win in November and to do the damned hard work of GOTV to thrash the GOP.
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NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #13
26. Hey, that was nice. Thanks, JoFerret.
I agree. :)
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #13
30. :) That was nice.
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HCE SuiGeneris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
64. A couple of comments from you that I have read today...
have been decidedly worthwhile. Thanks fellow Dem for helping to restore good will.

:thumbsup: :hi:
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
15. Keeping it in single digits will go a long way to bringing it home
Hang in there, and thanks a TON for all you've already done.
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
16. MOVE IT.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:27 PM by DerekJ
:WTF:

We need to make it as close as possible. Your goal is to get the turn out for Obama as high as it can be.
Remember if she wins by less than 10 she lost.

CAN YOU MAKE THIS HAPPEN?!!
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #16
34. Ah yes - a graduate of the Bobby Knight school of motivation.
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #34
42. it works !!


:p
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JerseygirlCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
17. Even should he lose by a large margin, her odds of actually
winning this nomination remain slim.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
18. You have to think in long terms
#1 Every percent Clinton wins over Obama is a good deal of donors ready to donate to her.

#2 Obama keeping it under 10 in PA will mean that he cut a firewall state lead in half. And there are no more firewall states for Clinton.

It is going to suck when he loses PA. I have spent weeks preparing for it and it will still suck. However, Obama's campaign has NEVER been about short term gains.

Get ready for May 6th! That is when Obama will SMASH through any illusions that Clinton can take the nomination.
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blogslut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
19. Snap out of it!
He doesn't have to win Pennsylvania. All he has to do is come within single digits of Senator Clinton.

I know you want this over. We all want this to be over. Just hang on.
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redstate_democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
20. How many states have Obama been in on the night he won that state?
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #20
56. Good question..I
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:41 PM by zidzi
have no idea.

Edit~ Down thread..johnnydrama: "When Obama won Wisconsin he was in Houston. And when he won Maryland, DC & Virginia he was in Wisconson."
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TML Donating Member (749 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
21. Hang in there
No matter what happens tomorrow, it won't be the end of the world. That's why we have to keep fighting. If we quit, they win.
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Danger Mouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
23. Don't let it get you down. Obama himself has planned on losing PA all along...
he forced Hillary to spend much more of her money than she could afford on a state that was supposed to be a lock for her. As long as it's not a blowout, it'll be a short-term win for HRC, long-term win for BHO.
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
24. i don't think it means anything
When Obama won Wisconsin he was in Houston. And when he won Maryland, DC & Virginia he was in Wisconson.

It doesn't mean anything!
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #24
57. Thanks for this..we were wondering. n/t
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
25. I think he's being classy.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:16 PM by Kristi1696
Letting her make her inevitable concession speech without his being in the same city, gloating.

;)

P.S. She should be careful about trusting her internals too much, considering she can't poll the newly registered voters. She could be in for a shock.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #25
62.  Right..take our cue from that..
Obama always does the classy thing:)
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bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
27. NOt a big deal. We know she's going to win but it's too little , too late.
It's all over but the crying.
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
28. Nothing to be depressed about. Obama is going to be in the lead and is moving on to IN
IN has always been seen as the rubbermatch.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
29. If Hillary fails to meet expectations, it won't look so good she hung around in Philly. We will see.
Obama said it would be closer than folks think. Hillary was 26 points ahead not so long ago. If she fails to win convincingly, she will be in a hard place.

Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow. Don't give up! Don't give in! Obama needs you in PA tomorrow!
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Bensthename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
31. No sweat. He is still winning in delegates, votes, states, and money.. He has it wrapped up..
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM by Bensthename
This is his biggest hurdle.. There is a reason he is not attacking her too hard. All he has to do is play defense from here on out. He will win the majority of the upcoming states too.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #31
71. I have never been persuaded by this argument....
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 09:22 PM by gsaguyCLW54
...mainly because if the Democratic contests were winner take all, the exact opposite situation would be happening. In fact it would be over by this time.
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Bensthename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #71
74. I bet if it were winner take all Obama would be running a different campaign.
He is running a smarter campaign. He knows this is won by delegates. So while she is trying to win with your strategy, Obama was out campaigning to the target delegates. Thus allowing him to rack up more total votes and delegates.

He knows how to play the game.. This shows who has the brains and leadership.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
33. It is because of the work people like you have done that her lead is now in single digits
You cant give up just yet. :)
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
35. He can still give a good speech from Indiana if he needs to. Don't
fret. His campaigning in PA is over after tonight anyway; he's not letting any grass grow under his feet.

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #35
63. Yeah, that's what he has us for..
B-)
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IsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
36. Valleys and peak tops my friend. All a part of life. He still wins the nomination. Keep your eyes
on the prize.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
37. Buck up! Barack Obama will be our Democratic Nominee.
:thumbsup:
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
38. After all of the lying, spinning, exaggerating and frabricating (the Kitchen sink & then some)
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:21 PM by FrenchieCat
by the Hillary campaign and the Corporate media against Barack, be glad that Barack is still the one most likely to become the nominee. Had they known that he would get this close, they would have started long ago, and much harder.

Be thankful that in the end, he will prevail....for all of our sakes.

He doesn't have to beat Hillary. That was never the goal, and everyone knows it. You can't forget that.
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Orsino Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
40. She needs delegates worse than he does, and she needs 'em *now*.
She needs the biggest possible win in PA to continue looking viable, while he can afford to move on. I really don't want to demoralize Clinton supporters, but PA will carry enormous psychological value, as long as she doesn't actually lose.
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Tribetime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
41. Michael Smerconski predicted a Obama win on Hardball
Says he's talked to pollsters and they say they've never seen a election like this 3-400,000 new voters this year they just not sure who will show up. Basically they told him anything could happen in this one.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. That was on Friday, right?
Or was it more recent?
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Tribetime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #43
45. no today
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. It was tonight
Cheer up. As the poster above put it, he moves on to the next state even when he's confident of winning.
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
44. Don't Worry, Be Happy...
We win this thing.

:shrug:
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graycem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
47. Nothing to be depressed about..
He has done as well as anybody could have done. An exceptional campaign, he's made a powerful argument, and spent each campaign dollar wisely. I think he's "won" already simply because he made a blow-out almost impossible. Close was all he needed here, and we knew that all along. Hang in for NC. He's going to wrap it up there.

And in my opinion, this extended campaign is helping us. Everybody in these states that usually get ignored are being given the opportunity to be excited. With them engaged and invested in his campaign now will bode very well for us in the GE, thanks to you and others like you. Just go back to the math. That should make you feel a little better. This will not be a "win" for her really. Not what she needs, which means, mission accomplished! You, and all the others there, did what the real objective all along was... keep it close, so thanks for that!

Next week we'll be hysterical about the upcoming states and the closer we get to the GE, the bigger picture will be even more clear. He is the nominee. :)
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
48. Don't worry about it..She was up by 33% in 11-07, so for him to close it up
and take delegates & votes she might have gotten..well that'sa victory..

and the fact that he's moving on to Indiana, shows that he;s doing what he's done all along.. campaign, win delegates.,.move on..
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PresidentObama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message
49. Don't be: She can't win the nomination!
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DUyellow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message
50. Nah, I am fired up... NC is going to be a delegate BLOW OUT
And delegates are all that matter.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. and Oregon & Montana too
:)
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ecstatic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
53. Hang in there. This is just one battle in a larger war
We will be victorious in the end.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
54. The night he won the Potomac Primary (Virginia, Maryland and DC) he was in Wisconsin when
he gave his speech.

So tomorrow night he will be in Indiana at a rally with John Mellencamp. That seems pretty standard.

Don't worry. May 6th - North Carolina and Indiana - will probably end the nomination race (unofficially).

Plus - no one in Penn has even voted yet!

GOTV could determine everything.

Buck up. Life is good.

All your work is worth it and it does make a difference. :):pals:
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #54
59. That's a really good point.
So maybe the fact that he will be in Indiana is not so bad. But the fact that she is going to be in Philly means she's confident. There's no way in hell she'd stick around if she weren't.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #59
93. She can't afford to not show confidence of the PA outcome. n/t
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Barb in Atl Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:34 PM
Response to Original message
55. He's been getting all over the place in his campaign plane
He can be back there tomorrow. Thanks for all your hard work - know that it was not wasted.
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MagickMuffin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
58. Please don't worry, her WIN in Texas was only 3.5%, I wouldn't call that a BIG WIN
by any means, even tho she makes that claim. And Barack won the most delegates here, in which I am one of them.

I don't think he will lose by a large margin in PA. Go ahead and canvass tomorrow, and continue to be a help with the GOTV.

:yourock:



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Willo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
60. Demoralized, why in the world would you take
your emotions on that ugly trip? *smack* *smack* Snap out of it!

Okay, are you back? Good, now listen up. You had it right...you canvass for the win, knowing that the margin matters.

There is good reason to remain optimistic. Remember, you never know who you'll talk to tommorrow and what chain of events that conversation could set off.

Do not convince yourself that not being in PA means defeat. Remember, when the media was asking why Obama wasn't there earlier?

He plans ahead. You do what you set out to do and let the chips fall where they may.

BTW, thanks for your work in PA :toast:

:yourock:
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
61. A few things....
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 08:49 PM by TwoSparkles
There are 300,000 new Democratic voters--who registered to vote specifically for this PA primary. They were
off the grid, so to speak, before this primary. I heard tonight on MSNBC, that the polling indicates that
Obama has a significant edge with these voters.

That's something to be really excited about.

Also--PA reminds me a lot of Iowa. In both states, Obama had a great deal of time to overcome Hillary's
double-digit lead. Obama has whittled the lead down to single digits, if most polls are to be believed. She
did have a 25+ point lead. Obama's ground game is unprecedented and it will translated into high turnout for him.
It's one of the things that pulled him over in Iowa, and I believe it will significantly help in PA. Remember in
Iowa, they were polling close, and then he put it over the top at the very end. It's possible that the same
could happen in PA.

Also, don't be disheartened by Obama being in IN tomorrow night. It makes perfect sense that he would
end up in Indiana--no matter what. If he wins, he would want to parlay the excitement and momentum
into Indiana--the next very competitive state (he knows he's got NC in the bag). I'm encouraged by
him moving onto IN--because it may indicate that he expects positive results and wants to be in
Indiana to tout the positive. Seriously...If their internals indicted a loss, I would suggest holding an
event in 'slam-dunk' NC--where he is assured of a win. If I thought I was going to lose handily, I would
initially set up shop in NC to diffuse the PA win and remind everyone that I would win shortly in NC.

I'm serious...I think the campaign holding a PR event in Indiana could indicate that they expect very
good things and want to kick off the Indiana campaign season with good news.

Just my 2 cents...
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #61
66. Interesting 2 cents..thanks, Two Sparkles..
And I hope that you, democrattotheend, are feeling better after reading this amazing thread that wouldn't have happened if you hadn't of let it all hang out regarding your state of mind. :)

Thanks so much for going to Philly for us:patriot: :bounce: :kick: :party:
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
65. No need to be depressed. No politician or campaign wins
all the time everywhere. You just stand in and fight for your candidate until that state is decided. Then you move on.
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Hoof Hearted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
67. For what it's worth, I know just what it feels like to keep knocking on the doors when you know
your return party isn't going to be quite as fun as the one on the other side.


No matter what, remember you are getting Democrats out to vote, and that's always a good thing.



I must be crazy, saying encouraging words to an Obama canvasser.

:yoiks:
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #67
73. You're not crazy. I appreciate it.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 09:26 PM by democrattotheend
I think I'm just taking this hard because my mom is so depressed right now about our finances and life in general, and I think if Obama could pull off a miracle in PA it would go a long way towards cheering her up. So I took 2 days off work to canvass for him in hopes that maybe somehow I could help make it happen, for the country's sake and for my mom's sake. Knowing it's not going to happen is kind of tough, even though I knew it was a long shot from the start.
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #73
87. Tell your Mom that this poster on DU has three daughters and they are
the very light in my life. We are broke all the time, but I am so rich because of my wonderful daughters, that I feel like a millionaire. Just take one step at a time, sweetie, one step at a time. Thinks do work out eventually, sometimes sooner than you think.
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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #67
86. Yes--getting Democrats out is always a good thing.
We will need every single one in November, no matter who the nominee is.
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
68. Obama's ahead of schedule
Remember his spreadsheet?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

This was a detailed plan to go for a long and tough election. There were a few states where he did much better than expected, but overall, the plan was to win some, and keep the others close. Penn was one to keep close -- by cutting the gap from 25% to 5% (that's what they forecast). Even that was audacious. The fact that he's even in the position he's in is amazing. Don't need to get upset that he can't win every state. I love that he planned and executed to win over the whole campaign, not to get one big hit and assume his opponent would just crumble.

Interesting thing in the spreadsheet and the way it's so close to what actually happened is you see how little of a deal momentum is. Some states looked like Obama states, some like Clinton states. They hardly moved at all from predictions, so what we see is ooh, big win here - ooh, big upset there etc. What it looks like in the Obama plan is - Won Wisconsin - Check, Lost Ohio but kept it close enough - Check, Lost Texas primary but even did better in delegates, Check. Keep Penn close -- Check(?), and basically split the rest of the way and at some point the campaign is won.

Gives me a lot of confidence to how he can manage the campaign for the general election too. Current polls will give the starting point for the GE. Then look at what a brilliant campaign McCain ran (collapse, but then everyone else did too so he was the last one standing) vs. what Obama has done (felling the giant, starting from nowhere). He'll play the GE strategically to win, and not to take risks to stroke his own ego.


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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:44 AM
Response to Reply #68
100. Excellent post!
And does credit to this man and his team who are nothing short of brilliant, and that is the type of President we need. If feel safer already, knowing that Prez Obama in in the wings! Thank you.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:20 PM
Response to Original message
69. Im not sure what to think....
...because if Obama is the nominee a longer primary battle with a strong politician only helps him. if she is able to win and pull ahead in the raw vote, then she will have beaten a well financed opponent and I have no doubt the party gets behind her.
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
70. Even if she wins big
you've helped lay the foundation for his GE run, with your work, by helping introduce Pennsylvanians to Obama.

Be proud of that. Your work is already paying dividends and will continue to do so through November.

So cheer up. :hug:
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
72. If her polling numbers had her pounding Obama, then she wouldn't be hitting all the shows tonight.
Olbermann, Larry King, etc.

No way.

She's going to win, but she'll win small.

She's not going to Indiana because she has two weeks and she's thoroughly exhausted.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
75. Just wanted to thank everyone for cheering me up
I'm feeling a little better now. I especially want to thank the Clinton supporters who were classy and encouraging.

I'm feeling fired up and ready to get back out there and kick ass tomorrow!
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Bigleaf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
76. Don't worry. He's going to fucking smoke her in North Carolina. She can't catch him. She's done.
We're not going anywhere. None of his supporters are going anywhere.
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barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
77. Demoralised won't do losing is just a lesson in how to be more successful next time keep going .
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 10:40 PM by barack the house
FRIED UP.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
78. Maybe you're just tired!
No matter what happens tomorrow, he has to stay on task -- that's who he is. That's why he'll be a great president. :)
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Citizen Kang Donating Member (424 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
79. No need to be depressed
Obama did what he needed to do to keep her from taking over the pledged delegate and popular vote lead. Even if he loses by 10 he cut her lead in half and she will only net about 20-25 delegates. He will still be up by 140 delegates going into some very favorable states for him (NC, IN, OR)

I think its smart to start focusing on Indiana. If he can pull the sweep on May 6, its over. The Supers will fall his way, Hillary will be in too much debt to continue the race.


Start looking ahead to May 6. Thats where we need to focus. Thats where we put the dagger in the heart.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
81. What difference does it make? The Repukes are going to steal it in November
no matter who the nominee is
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:51 AM
Response to Reply #81
101. Don't underestimate our future Nominee. Too many have already
made that mistake. He's a planner. He'll map out exactly the states needed to win, and will have ample time to get it done.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
82. I'd rather be in his place than hers
and its 1 inning, she'll win the inning but he's won most of the innings before this.

sometimes that's the best you can do.

it would be dreaming to think that Obama could put away the most well known Democrat running for office and the wife of a popular Democratic president.

it wasn't easy, it is not easy and that's why Obama, despite not winning tomorrow, is still such a good candidate. he's the only one who has been able to make this a contest and in fact, made everything she's doing look like a hail mary when she's two touchdowns behind.

so take heart. you don't just go into a state where you're 30 points behind and win it in 4 or 5 weeks --not against Hillary Clinton.
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:07 PM
Response to Original message
83. another thing i thought of
And this probably is just a coincidence. But it would be kinda cool to believe they think like this.

Indiana is one time zone earlier than PA. He can get the results earlier in the night and not have to stay up that much later.

Thinking about it, who knows how they go back and forth in different time zones everyday, and how they set their sleep schedule.

It would be kinda dumb to await results from someplace like California in NY though.

Who knows, i'm just thiking out loud.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
84. Every once and a while
I am rewarded for not using ignore. This thread has been one of those times.

To the OP: no need for demoralization. PA is important, but it was never likely to be a game ender for anyone. In sports terms, PA is only one quarter in a whole season. The margin matters more for morale than anything else, at this point. a few delegates aren't a big deal. But feeling defeated is bad. And if we, or rather you who are there, let that margin grow large, it could actually harm the whole campaign. Keep the faith. A set back is not a defeat.
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mystieus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:38 AM
Response to Original message
88. Even internal polling is not always accurate.
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:49 AM
Original message
Fear not.....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5613285&mesg_id=5613285

Our very own DU pundits have her winning PA by only 3-5%.

If that turns out to be true, regardless of how Hillary tries to spin it, (Obama outspent her and still lost, etc.), the numbers begin to really start adding up in people's minds. It'll be pretty obvious that she didn't get the magic 55%, and the only way for her to win is for the superdelegates to overturn the vote PLUS for MI and FL to magically be counted as-is.

Combine this with the likelihood of Obama more than erasing the win with Indiana and North Carolina, and you have no reason to be depressed.

-------

Check these numbers.

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177


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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
89. Fear not.....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5613285&mesg_id=5613285

Our very own DU pundits have her winning PA by only 3-5%.

If that turns out to be true, regardless of how Hillary tries to spin it, (Obama outspent her and still lost, etc.), the numbers begin to really start adding up in people's minds. It'll be pretty obvious that she didn't get the magic 55%, and the only way for her to win is for the superdelegates to overturn the vote PLUS for MI and FL to magically be counted as-is.

Combine this with the likelihood of Obama more than erasing the win with Indiana and North Carolina, and you have no reason to be depressed.

-------

Check these numbers.

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177


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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
90. We all have times when we look at this campaign and say
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 12:59 AM by davidpdx
what the hell is going on. Mine was after NH and Nevada. Heck even on Super Duper Tuesday, I was a little bit upset he lost CA and MA, even though he did awesome in lots of other states including pulling off a win in Missouri. There have been plenty of ups and downs through this campaign and there are going to be plenty more.

PA is a tough state and given fact that despite being down by 20+ points, he's probably going to lose it. Keep in mind the delegate count from each individual district is based on the population, so it's likely even if she wins by 8-10 points (or even 12 which is conceivable) the amount of delegates she picks up over Obama will only be slightly more then the percentage she wins by. For example, based on the delegate calculators (like Slate's), she could win by 10 points and she'll probably only pick up 16 delegates then Obama.

Also keep in mind this isn't going to be over tomorrow. I honestly think this will go on until at least May 6th or May 20th. Indiana and Oregon (the latter being my home state) are important as ever. I'm pretty sure West Virginia and Kentucky are going to be large victories for Clinton and North Carolina will go overwhelmingly for Obama.

Volunteer and encourage people to vote. That's what needs to be done at this point and it will make you feel better then any of us can.
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jordi_fanclub Donating Member (388 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:12 AM
Response to Original message
91. There is THE difference between a politic-of-the-PAST and a politic-of-the-FUTURE...
One look to the front... the other only see the back.
The objective is MOTIVATE & WORK not celebrate until the final win.
And to him the work after the beginning of this day is in IN not in PA. ;)
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earth mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
92. Sounds like Denial. nt
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
95. Of course she is going to win. The objective was to keep it to single digits.
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goletian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:43 AM
Response to Original message
96. obamas already got it in the bag, as long as hillary doesnt win big
shes screwed. shes got no chance. dont worry.
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:46 AM
Response to Original message
97. Have You Ever Played Chess?
If so, take heart in your understanding of strategy. Pennsylvania has ALREADY won a battle fo Barack, and you should look to the FEC campaign finace reports to see that.

Hillary is broke. She has huge debt. She will not be able to compete in the remaining primaries at a sufficient level.

Barack has surrendered his castle to take down her queen. Thre may be moves left in this game, but the outcome is already determined. Hillary will not be nominated. She has been out played.

Of course, this depends on you, and other like you, seeing the role that they are required to play in this end game. Get out there, work your territory, and get out the vote. Team Obama needs your support. Don't lose sight of the goal, and give the game everything you've got!

You can make a difference. Yes, you can!
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2rth2pwr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:10 AM
Response to Original message
98. If you feel bad now, tomorrow night when she wins by double digits is really gonna suck.

If you stay home tomorrow the sting will be far less.
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mattclearing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:27 AM
Response to Original message
99. It's not over until it's over.
While it's unlikely that Obama will take Pennsylvania, stranger things happen all the time, and you can make a difference.
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2rth2pwr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
102. How do you feel today?
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 03:49 PM
Response to Original message
103. 9.2% ain't a big win. We're doing FINE.
:hug:
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 04:08 PM
Response to Original message
104. Thanks for all your hard work. Keep your chin up!
Obama is still going to be the nominee AND the next President of the United States.

Hillary Clinton may have won the popular vote and gained some delegates, but she is broke and has shown her true colors as a very divisive politician. Besides not being able to "seal the deal" with a larger margin of victory, she has made a lot of Superdelegates really question her motives at this point.

She might have won a battle, but we have won the war.
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