The spin is BS, Hillary needs more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help her.

[ProSense]

Delegate counts

If all the remaining superdelegates commit to either Hillary or Obama after PA (Hillary by 20 pts):

................................Hillary......Obama
current.......................1508.........1650
plus PA (60%).................95............63
remaining SD.................321...........321
total..........................1924.........2034
needed......................2024..........2024
deficit/surplus..............-100............10

Obama wins!


If all the remaining superdelegates commit to either Hillary or Obama after PA (Hillary by 10 pts):

................................Hillary......Obama
current.......................1508.........1650
plus PA (55%).................87............71
remaining SD.................321...........321
total..........................1916.........2041
needed......................2024..........2024
deficit/surplus..............-108............18

Obama wins!

Calculator

[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[fedupinBushcountry]

2. The only possible way that she could win

is by taking 65% of all the remaining states including Pa. tomorrow. Anyone with any bit of common sense knows that isn't going to happen.

[rinsd]

3. These scenarios treat Superdelegate votes as firm. They are not.

Putting it another way.

If you see 300 Superdelegates declare for Hillary after PA chances are quite good that you would see some delegate defections from Obama.

The only thing one can mathematically project for is pledged delegates.

[kwenu]

4. So what do you honestly think the odds are for 300 SDs breaking for Hillary?

[rinsd]

6. I don't.

But my point stands that Superdelegate votes are not firm.

[EcoDonk]

7. I sense a bit of HilRod angst here...

Sorry I just got here... is everyone here for Barack?

[kwenu]

27. Does that somehow shape your reaction?

[WillyT]

5. And You Will See The Democratic Party Torn Asunder...

:shrug:

[rinsd]

8. I don't see Supers overriding 4 Hillary unless she is winning either pop vote or pledged delegates.

She has a better chance (though still not great by any stretch) at the popular vote at this point.

[Spider Jerusalem]

17. She has no chance

she can't win the popular vote without margins of victory she's only acheived in one state. She can win every remaining state 55/45 and she'll still be behind in pledged delegates and popular vote.

[rinsd]

19. Not if you include FL.

And if we get to the point where pop vote is a real factor in their decision, I think Supers will take into account FL's "straw poll".

[Spider Jerusalem]

20. They can't do that if they aren't going to seat the delegates.

Clinton agreed to the DNC sanctions. You can't have it both ways.

[rinsd]

23. I didn't say seat the delegates.

I was talking about pop vote totals and whether FL's numbers should be included which is why I called it a straw poll.

[Spider Jerusalem]

28. Yet Obama leads Clinton in all national polls conducted in the past month.

So why would the superdelegates not take that into consideration?

Why would they not take into consideration that Obama has a much broader base of support and has a far more effective fundraising and GOTV machine?

Why would they not take into consideration the fact that Obama brings millions of new and enthusiastic voters who are energised by his candidacy, while Hillary does not?

Why would they not take into consideration that Hillary getting the nomination when she has a deficit in pledged delegates will be seen by many, rightly or wrongly, as stealing it from Obama, the rightful winner, and will serve to alienate the most reliable part of the Democratic base (African Americans, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama)?

Why would they not take into consideration that a majority of Americans, according to recent polls, find her far less trustworthy and credible than Obama (or John McCain, for that matter)?

Explain to me why they would ignore all of these factors, please, because from where I'm sitting I can't see a compelling case for nominating Hillary even in the unlikely event that she gains a lead in popular vote (which is an irrelevancy in a contest for delegates that includes caucuses which do not count voters).

[rinsd]

32. They could take everything you have listed into consideration.

That's the point.

All of the things you listed could be offered in an argument for Obama. Just as pop vote could be offered for Hillary if she should pull ahead.

"(which is an irrelevancy in a contest for delegates that includes caucuses which do not count voters)"

All but 4 caucuses did count voters. And there are estimates for those that did not.

Here are pop vote breakdowns for all scenarios

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Spider Jerusalem]

33. Given everything I just said, why would you reasonably believe that the SDs would nominate Hillary?

It is not a logical assumption to make given all of those factors. Popular vote or no.

[rinsd]

36. Pop vote as an argument only matters if she is close to him in pledged delegates.

Very close.

If not, we're not having this argument anyway.

[Spider Jerusalem]

38. She won't be close.

She'll have a likely deficit of 100 to 150 going into the convention. But it won't go that far. She can't catch up, and Howard Dean has called for superdelegates to endorse to get the primaries over with. And many prominent Democratic insiders have said that they don't expect it to go to the convention. My prediction is that this will be over come the first week in May. And that Hillary won't win the endorsement of enough of the remaining superdelegates to put her over the top.

[quakerboy]

48. Each superdelegate

chooses for themselves. As far as I am aware there is no rule that prevents them from voting based on what color tie the guy at their bank wore on a particular morning. So if an individual SD from Montana wants to individually consider Fl as part of the popular vote and base their vote on that, I don't see anything stopping them.

[cui bono]

10. Pledged delegates are just that, pledged. They're also not obligated to vote for the candidate

the voters chose. The Clinton campaign has even mentioned that and that they were hoping to "poach" Obama's pledged delegates.

I don't understand why that's a rule, makes no sense to me.

[rinsd]

15. That is true though campaign have a way to prevent that.

Candidates usually proffer slates of their own delegates for each state so that loyalty to them is assured.

[cui bono]

46. That's right. I heard about that too. Very odd system. n/t

[ProSense]

12. Your response defies logic.

The scenarios were to show how unlikely it is that the remaining superdelegates will rush to Hillary's side even if she wins PA by 20 pts.

The more likely scenario is that if Hillary doesn't win big in PA, superdelegates will begin shifting toward Obama.

Worse, if Hillary wins PA by 20, and then continues on to score a big win in IN (by 20 pts) and keep it close in NC (Obama wins by 6 pts), she would only net 7 more delegates (in addition to the 32 from PA), and still be far behind (by 127 pledged delegates and 103 total delegates):

................................Hillary......Obama
plus IN (Hillary 60%).........43............29
plus NC (Obama 53%).......54............61


She can't win.








edited typo

[rinsd]

14. Superdelegates are not pledged, they can switch at any time.

So its stupid to calculate scenarios that show all the remaining Superdelegates siding with one candidate or the other because the sheer momentum of that would cause defections amongst other Superdelegates.

If you want to extrapolate pledged delegate results, have at it.

[ProSense]

16. Wrong,

without the ability to surmont Obama's pledged delegate lead, a huge shift toward Hillary defies logic. n/t

[rinsd]

18. Umm you were the one who offered the scenarios.

:shrug:

Again, my point is that Superdelegate votes are not firm so having one side or the other get the rest of those votes with no impact on other totals makes no sense.

[ProSense]

21. If Obama leads by 134 pledged delegates after PA, a huge shift would not defy logic

In fact, a huge shift (of just the remaining superdelegates) toward Obama could end it. Since Hillary has no chance of overtaking Obama in pledged delegates, such a decision would make a lot of sense.

[rinsd]

24. Again with any mass shift you would see defections.

It does not matter which side gets the bounty.

[ProSense]

29. Are you pretending not to understand that a mass shift is unlikely to

occur in Hillary's favor because she does not have and cannot achieve the pledged delegate lead?

[rinsd]

34. Are you pretending not to understand that Superdelegate votes are not firm?

And that any big shift is likely to be followed by defections?

Do I think its likely that Hillary will see a big shift?

Absent a huge scandal...no.

Do I think Obama could see a huge shift?

Possible. But again if such a shift began to occur you would see defections from the rest of Hillary's supers. Much like if a something happened and Hillary saw a huge shift you would see defections from Obama's Supers.

[ProSense]

35. "Do I think its likely that Hillary will see a big shift? Absent a huge scandal...no."

Then what's your point?

I'm using the word "shift," and it's pretty clear shift and firm are not synonymous.

[rinsd]

37. Because you only "shift" unspoken Super votes.

And for some reason you are arguing with me that there would not be defections on top of that shift.

[ProSense]

40. No, there would be a shift, but it would be based on logic. There will be no shift

for the sake of shifting. If Hillary cannot win with a shift of all the remaining superdelegates, that shift will not happen. If any shift occurs, it's most likely to happen in Obama's favor (that's already the trend). There is also a strong likelihood that any shift of the remaining superdelegates could trigger a mass shift/defection to Obama. Again, that is unlikely to be the case for Hillary because, and I reiterate: If Hillary cannot win with a shift of all the remaining superdelegates, that shift will not happen.





edited typo

[AJH032]

9. As long as he does not get to the required number through pledged delegates alone

your statement is false. Sorry for the spin-proof reality.

[ProSense]

13. "your statement is false"? Did you read where it stated "if all the remaining superdelegates"?

Do you understand what if means?

[Secret_Society]

11. Its all about popular vote for HRC.

It is pretty clear that she will not win in pledged delegates but with a double digit win in PA, a narrow win in Indiana, huge wins in WV and Kentucky, and keeping it within ten in NC, Oregon, Montana, and SD she may make it close enough that the popular vote from Florida may become quite significant. Puerto Rico is a wildcard (HRC should win but little way to judge what turnout will be). Here is great article. RCP also has a great calculator you can play around with.

<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html>

<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html>

[speedoo]

22. The Florida popular vote has no standing.

No official standing, that is. The only data that truly has official standing is the pledged delegate count from the recognized promaries.

If the super delegates give the nomination to Hillary based on anything other than her lead in pledged delegates, the Democratic Party will self destruct.

[rinsd]

26. If Hillary pulls ahead in pop vote you have a hard time making that argument.

Again we are talking about persuasion arguments for the Supers.

[speedoo]

31. I know what we are talking about.

I'm saying that if the supers accept an argument that essentially overturns Obama's pledged delegate lead and take the nomination away from him, many millions of democrats will never trust the party again, much less elect Hillary in November. That's what I mean by self destruction.

[Secret_Society]

41. On the other hand...

HRC could say that the supers are overturning the popular will if she did take the popular vote and that Obama is winning on what can be spun as undemocratic party regulations. I do agree that it would be very contentious.

[speedoo]

43. Hillary can and will say a lot of things.

For reasons discussed elsewhere, the popular vote has no official standing. The pledged delegates were elected in the primaries and the caucuses, by the rules, and Obama will lead.

Hillary's argument is very unlikely to be accepted by the supers. If they do accept it, the Party will do itself enormous, irreparable damage.

[BlueIdaho]

25. No such thing as "popular vote"

In a system mixed with caucuses. Many caucuses don't even keep a total vote count - and if they did it would push Obama's popular vote total to a level unassailable by anything Clinton can do from this point on. There is a reason the Democratic party ignores popular vote during this primary season - the total is meaningless.

[rinsd]

30. Obama's pop vote lead with caucuses is now estimated at 830K.

"There is a reason the Democratic party ignores popular vote during this primary season - the total is meaningless."

Popular vote is only a factor in the influencing of Super delegates and only works if the pledged delegate lead is small.

Most of the more than 100 undecided superdelegates who discussed their decision-making with The Associated Press in the past two weeks agreed that the primaries and caucuses do matter _ whether it's who has the most national delegates or the candidate who won their state or congressional district. But few said the primaries will be the biggest factor in their decision.

"I think it's really important that we keep our eye on the prize, and the prize is the win in November," said Gail Rasmussen, an undecided superdelegate from Oregon.

That's good news for Clinton, who cannot catch Obama in delegates won in the few remaining primaries and caucuses.

Obama has been arguing for months that the superdelegates would be overturning the will of the voters if they don't nominate the candidate who has won the most pledged delegates. He has a 164-delegate lead in that category. Clinton, meanwhile, has argued that superdelegates should exercise independent judgment.

Many of the undecided superdelegates say they don't want to be perceived as elite insiders, cutting backroom deals to select a nominee. But that doesn't mean they're ready to forfeit their status.

"The way the system is set up, the superdelegates are able to weigh in because we are the most experienced people in the party," said Blake Johnson, an undecided superdelegate from Alaska. "We are the ones who have been part of the party the longest and keep it running on a day-to-day basis."

There will be nearly 800 superdelegates at the party's national convention in Denver this summer. They are the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and are free to support whomever they choose. They are in high demand now that neither Clinton nor Obama can clinch the nomination without them.

Clinton leads in superdelegate endorsements, 258-232, according to the latest tally by the AP. However, Obama has been eating away at her lead for much of the past two months, picking up 84 percent of the superdelegate endorsements since Super Tuesday.

About 250 superdelegates have told the AP they are undecided or uncommitted. About 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings this spring.

AP reporters across the nation contacted the undecideds and asked them how they plan to choose. Of those, 117 agreed to discuss the decision-making process.

_About a third said the most important factor will be the candidate who, they believe, has the best chance of beating Republican John McCain in the general election.

_One in 10 said the biggest factor will be the candidate with the most pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

_One in 10 said what matters most is who won their state or congressional district in the primary or caucus.

_The rest cited multiple factors or parochial issues.

[Gore1FL]

47. Pop vote is meaningless.

delegates represent voter tuenout over the last three elections.

GE projected popular vote translate roughly into delegates. He or She who wins the pledged delegate vote inherently wins the representationa; value ofthe GE popular vote.

Those calculations have already been made.

[Secret_Society]

39. They do make caucus vote estimates

The second link I posted shows how the totals change when they are included or excluded. It would be a powerful rhetorical point for HRC if things worked out that way.

[BlueIdaho]

44. Apple and Oranges my friend

An "estimate" is not a vote. No compelling argument here - if you don't believe me try calling Democratic national headquarters and see how far your argument gets you.

[Secret_Society]

45. Perception is reality

If HRC gets close enough that Florida's total would push her over the edge she will start saying she has won the popular will and it would be a compelling point to many American that don;t understand the ins and outs of the technical rules of the Democratic Party.

[BlueIdaho]

49. No reality is reality.

The reality is her campaign is out of money, massively in debt, and running on fumes. At this rate her campaign will cease to be effective soon. No groundswells, no come from behinds, no big turn arounds, no miracles, no 4th and 10 hail marys, and no popular vote total exceeding Obama. The problem with all these hypotheticals is they depend on Hillary outperforming any previous success to date. That's going to be impossible to do without money for media and ground operations.

Hey - folks can read her financials and vendors aren't going to take those IOUs from her campaign much longer.

[sandnsea]

42. And you can't compare caucus votes to primary votes

I'm really sick of people lying about this. No wonder our country is in such a mess - the majority have no moral compass at all.

[BenDavid]

50. let hrc win at least 7 of the last 10 and you will see delegates

leaving obama to won for hrc on the first ballot in colorado.....you say they cannot do that. well, they sure can. any delegate from any state can won for anyone they want too....there is no law in the by laws of the democratic party that says they have to vote for obama.....

[Scurrilous]

51. K & R

:thumbsup:

[depakid]

52. Seeing as how you're one of the best spinners on this board

and I mean that as a compliment- I'd be wary about about calling it BS.

[JCMach1]

53. Gee, but Obama needs to get a very large slice of the SD's to win too

at least outright.

Cut the spin, short of either candidate falling apart like a house of cards it's the SD's that will decide this thing AND NEITHER candidate will have 2024 before the convention unless something (or someone) gives or cuts a deal.

[Vinca]

54. Hillary math throws in Michigan and Florida - all for her, of course,

none for Barack.

[dailykoff]

55. She's like the PC virus you can't get rid of

because she came with the shitty operating system.