Let's Explore This - "He Cannot Win The Big States" Argument.......

[global1]

this is a Democratic Primary. The voters are choosing between two democrats. The voter turnout all around the country for the Dems has been record breaking. The American people want a change from *Co and the Repugs. So we see now that Barack has won more states, delegates and popular votes than Hillary. Hillary has won some of the big states. Barack has been competitive in these states as well. If Barack ultimately wins the nomination - we still have the same dynamics going on in the big states. Record voter turnout for Dems. People still want a change from *Co. Doesn't it make sense then - if Obama wins the nomination that those people that pushed Hillary (another Dem) over the top in these states will just vote for Obama? They won't vote against themselves and elect another Repug - for a third Bush term - would they?

So to me the argument that Barack can't win the big states holds no water. It's a bogus argument. As this is competition between two Dems. Not a Dem and a Repug.

Somebody help me here with my thinking. Am I wrong?

The only way that this can turn against Obama is if the Hillary supporters wouldn't support him if he was the nominee. Would they REALLY vote against themselves in a General Election that is so important?

[papau]

1. 20% of Obama supporters will not vote Dem if O not on ticket - and vice versa for Clinton supporters

[Sweet Pea]

7. Am I wrong?

I think so.

The cult of personality that is all things O-bah-ma! will not track very well come November, should he win the nomination. The Clinton backers who have stated again and again and again that they will *not* vote for Obama will strike and many more of the remaining voter population will realize that thia man is an empty suit and void of any substance.

[papau]

15. I believe you are correct.

[zonkers]

2. Yup. Bogus. Bigtime.

[zerostar]

3. There are many reasons

why some would never vote for Obama, and the fact that many people would rather have Hillary after we have all heard she is doomed is a bit telling to me.

[4themind]

6. Perhaps, but eventually people may have to face another choice...

That choice being, obama, Mccain or not voting among others. The result of that may depend upon whether
1.)whether they desire what obama offers moreso than what McCain offers, enough so that they decide to vote for him.
2.)If they believe Obama will carry out with his promises, vs. whether McCain will, and then determine the net benefit to them
3.)Whether qualms about the fairness of the contest, personal characteristics, or perhaps even flat out racism will outweigh any potential value that him being president may apply to them. This may depend upon the impact that the person believes either candidate will have on their life, and to what degree (and if it's true that there's little to no impact to them, well hey, I wish I were in such a position(although I'd still vote for obama,for what I think he can offer to my friends and family))

[bluetrain]

4. My brother in NYC told me he'd vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. He's supporting Clinton, at

this point and absolutely loathes Obama. I'm sure he's not the only person who would make that choice or choose to sit the race out. It's a real gamble to assume either Obama or Clinton can get enough of each other's votes to pull this off; this has been the most divisive primary I've ever witnessed.

[meow mix]

5. obama will capture red states and turn them into dem strongholds forever. the repubs will be dead

hillary on the other hand will be defeated.

[kentuck]

8. Which big states can he not win?

NEW York? California? PA? Obama could compete with John McCain in any of these states without any support from the Hillary voters. If only half of Hillary's supporters vote for Obama, he will win in all these states.

[global1]

9. So If That Is True - And I Believe It Is - Why Do These Talking Heads......

on the cable news stations and the HRC campaign keep getting away with saying this? Why don't they get called on this and shut down this faulty thinking?

[kentuck]

12. Because they are very shallow thinkers...

Hillary wins the traditonal Democratic states because she has had 16 years to build up the organization in those states. But it is those other states that are more important in the general election. We know what states we can win already. Any Democrat could win those states.

[Sweet Pea]

16. A better question is.....

what big states HAS he won, in a primary, no less?

None.

[OHdem10]

10. Here is the way I heard someone explain a similar question.

Look at the supporters of each campaign.

Hilary's supporters areWorking class middle class white voters.
This is where the majority of Americans fit. Simply more of them
than the well-educated. As Smerconish explained when asked,
if Hillary is so bad, why are so many Pennsylvanians with her
after hearing and knowing all this stuff. Smerconish--It has to
be interpreted that many of these are votes AGAINST Obama.

One is left to conclude that this vast group of people in the
G.E. (if Obama is Candidate) will move to McCain or stay home.
Either way they are votes lost to Democratic Party.

Chuck Todd explained that this time Obama has had time in a
big state. He has to prove he can get the Middle Class White Vote.

In conclusion, McCain could win the big states which would be
a blow to the Democratic Party.

[GoldieAZ49]

11. It is the swing states, not the 'big' states

the blue states will be blue no matter who the candidate is

The swing states of FA, OH, PA, MO, MI and others

are the ones that are crucial to win a GE

[Bonobo]

14. Now THAT is true.

And I would strongly argue that since Obama is pulling in the lion's share of the new voters as well as independants, he is by far in the better position to win there.

[Bonobo]

13. Not only bogus, but incredibly stupid. You'd have to be a bonehead to believe it.

It's not even worth arguing.

Anyone tossing out that argument is either a liar or an idiot.