Richard Wolffe on AAR Saying

[tishaLA]

He's with the Obama campaign. He says that the Obama campaign seems to believe it will lose PA and lose fairly substantially. They are not getting the turnout they want in the suburbs, not meeting their expectations.

Obama had a cheesesteak this morning, blah blah blah

Says that a loss of less than 15% doesn't make much difference anyhow. Most of this is not that important, but the fact that they believe they will lose "fairly substantially" is the news, especially since Obama said yesterday that it would be closer than people expect.

[high density]

1. Well the underlying math of the entire race remains the same

But that doesn't serve the media's purpose, so it doesn't get mentioned.

[PoliticalAmazon]

93. Stephanie Miller this morning said one of the precincts didn't have "Obama" on the ticket. n/t

[oviedodem]

2. He is going to get crushed tonight I know it. It has everything to do with the

establishment and NOTHING to do with Policy; those are the facts.

[olkaz]

3. reducing expectations

I figured as much, but fairly substantially?

Did he give an estimate?

[EFerrari]

4. They fought a good fight. They should be proud of their effort.

And unless Hillary wins very big, it won't stop the bleed of SDs to Obama. Everyone wants this to be over.

[LisaM]

59. Everyone wants it to be over? By that you mean everyone wants Hillary to drop out?

Well, count me out of that. I want Hillary to keep fighting. It's that tenacity that will make her a good President.

[Nedsdag]

62. That same tenacity that caused her to fumble health care?

:shrug:

[PoliticalAmazon]

90. Duplicate post deleted.

[PoliticalAmazon]

91. After her nuke Iran comment, it is dangerous for her to continue....

She's already turning other countries against us. We cannot afford her to be president.

[EFerrari]

99. Hillary Clinton will never be President. n/t

[Bake]

83. They outspent Hillary by what, three or four to one?

Just to get an ass-whippin'? That doesn't seem very smart to me.

Bake

[joeybee12]

89. 3 to 1...

...seriously, if he loses big and all that money doesn't help, you gotta wonder. Hilary has been pretty easy on him (despite what the knee-jerk Bots and left-wing noise machine says) and he hasn't held up well...God only knows how he'll tremble when the repukes really get ahold of him.

[EFerrari]

100. But that's what that money was for, right?

Did anyone expect Obama to win? She didn't even beat him by ten points. I think that's pretty good considering that she had the whole party machinery sewed up.

[Mezzo]

5. on Joy Behar?

I wonder if it was Gino's?

[tishaLA]

22. Here you go...

I never liked Gino's or Pat's, so I can't tell which of the two this is.

[soleft]

36. I think it's Pat's

I was at Gino's last May and it had a different sign in the window as far as ordering instructions.

[tishaLA]

42. I always went to the one further East on Passyunk

When I got one out there, but I'll be damned if I know which one it was.

[styersc]

6. If Hillary is able to top Obama in Popular Vote and the magic

number has not been reached (it won't), then she will have a good argument for the nomination.

[high density]

11. Except that a lot of caucuses that Obama did well in

did not count a "popular vote." So in my opinion, the popular vote count is virtually meaningless.

This is a race for delegates unless the party is interested in completely trashing the rules in the 9th inning.

[styersc]

17. So you will support the Super Delegates voiding the will of

the Democratic voters?!?!?! Overturn the majority? There will be riots in Denver if Obama tires to pull a George Bush 2000.

The system was supposed to seat Super Delegates who vote their conscience but when that looked like a good outcome for Hillary the Obama cult threatened violence "like Chicago 1968". Now you are saying screw the voters.

Great.

[Blondbostonian]

26. you have to be joking

The only cult I see is the uneducated, uninformed Clinton voters. There's a reason why Clinton voters are under 50K income without college educations.

[styersc]

52. Smugness and elitism.

Have inspired a thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5622895

[Nedsdag]

72. "Smugness and elitism?"

It sounds like the Clinton family.

[GarbagemanLB]

31. Apparently you are too stupid to realize that the popular vote is a bullshit metric in a system

WITH CAUCUSES.


You'd have a point if every state was a PRIMARY, but it wasn't.

[jackson_dem]

69. Caucuses themselves are BS. 1.9% turnout? The GE will have about 55%

[azmouse]

35. ..'riots in Denver'?

That sounds like HRC cultists threatening violence to me...

[styersc]

51. Repeating threats from the other side.

We've been saturated with them for months.

[MarjorieG]

44. An article/study said Obama would gain if those caucus numbers counted as popular.

[LisaM]

95. Totally wrong as far as Washington state, where we held both

The primaries had more than twice the turnout, Hillary did significantly better, and the results didn't count.

They held the caucuses during the day on a Saturday and would not give people a proxy to vote if they had to work. It very much favored the Obama demographic. We have a few large apartment buildings near us and we had a slew of college students voting (which is good, I support college kids being able to vote, but it cut out, oh, nurses, policemen, bus drivers, etc. - all of whom are a better demographic for Hillary).

Moreover, they didn't do a proportionate allocation of delegates. Obama got 7 delegates to one for Hillary in our precinct, even though he only had about three times as many voters (they divide the number of people by the number of delegates, and you need to reach a certain threshold for each delegate).

[jackson_dem]

68. Wrong. Almost all of them did and we have estimates for those that didn't

They don't make a big difference since they had turnout ranging from 2-5%. For instance only 21,000 people voted in Idaho with 2.5% turnout. The estimate is that Obama nets about 100k from those states.

[DerekJ]

12. He is up by almost 800K votes

winning by 20 points will give her at BEST 400K votes, assuming a huge turnout.

[styersc]

21. Popular vote is the only way I could see the nomination going

to Hiullary at the convention. It is the best and only decent argument that she could make. She still has a steep uphill climb but if anyone can do it, Hillary can.

[jackson_dem]

70. 500k. Florida morally has to count

[melody]

15. And the perfect way to destroy the Democratic Party

I guess the GOP will be calling her a hero then.

[styersc]

So will Blue Collar, working class Democrats like myself who

have been working decades for this party and are sick of the juvenile snots who think that they can bully us out by calling us bigots.

Obama has never offended me. His cult has.

[melody]

38. There is no cult -- there are only supporters many of whom see he IS our nominee

We're not holding our breath like brats trying to get our way. Edwards was my candidate. He's not a factor anymore.
Obama *is* the nominee. The only way for us to win in November is to get behind him and work hard NOW.

Clinton (and her putative "supporters") are standing in the way of that. What's more important? That you get your
way or that Democrats win in November?

[azmouse]

43. For the HRC people, it's only about beating Obama. November doesn't matter.

Their hatred knows no bounds.

[melody]

96. For HRC's people, I agree. For HRC, I'm afraid it's more complicated and nefarious than that

The hate is just astounding.

[Blondbostonian]

39. I'm sick of being called a sexist

I can't help if you're uninformed and not educated enough to understand more than talking points.

[Bake]

84. And I'm sick of being called a racist, too.

As for uneducated? I have a B.A., M.Div., M.B.A., and a J.D., and I support Hillary. What about you, Blondbostonian? Put up or shut up.

Uneducated my ass! What an elitist snot-nosed thing to say. And you people wonder who is dividing the Party.

Bake

[Window]

71. I do not belong to a cult. I am a Sen. Obama supporter. No more, no less.

No wonder people offend you. Calling people juvenile snots, bullies and cultists will do it every time.

You speak as though Hillary supporters have been the perfect models of good behavior. LOL!

[Nedsdag]

75. I'm not a member of any cult.

I like Obama and I dislike what Mrs. Clinton stands for: militarism, corporatism, and dividing the country.

[melody]

98. I should point out I am a working class Democrat and 30 year Democratic party member

I'm also for Obama ... aware people knew what he was saying and didn't let someone spin it into something he didn't mean.

[elizm]

34. We don't elect by popular vote. nt

[Dawgs]

61. Don't worry. She has zero chance of reaching him in popular vote.

Even if you include Florida.

:)

[DerekJ]

7. 4 more hours to go.

[Tatiana]

8. Looks like he isn't getting the turnout needed in his districts.

Oh well. Anything under 20% is a plus. Though I am hoping, like Ohio, it will be within the 10 or less point range.

[redqueen]

9. This guy?

That's Richard Wolffe. I think he's sexy.

[PBS Poll-435]

14. ...

:puffpiece: .. :patriot: .. :wow: ..:scared:

[ej510]

16. Sounds like street money is coming back to haunt. I said he would lose by 5-10 pts or more so it's

not that surprising.

[City Lights]

19. So do I.

:loveya:

[redqueen]

30. Vote in my poll!

:P

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=105&topic_id=7676290&mesg_id=7676290

:crazy:

:D

[City Lights]

46. Just did...thanks for the link. I hadn't seen your poll.

:hi:

[redqueen]

48. Heheh...

thanks for voting in my silly poll. :P

:hi:

[liberaldem4ever]

57. I agree with you-he is sexy

And I love his accent. I really enjoy hearing his voice when he is on Keith's show. :blush:

[redqueen]

60. Same here...

heh, did you see him on the live feed from the field the other night? He didn't have the benefit of good lighting & a makeup person... heheh... still sexy though! :)

[liberaldem4ever]

63. Must have missed it:(

[Bake]

85. Which just goes to show the old adage ...

There's someone for everyone!

Just jokin' with ya, redqueen ... it's a little tense in GD: P today!

:hi:

Bake

[redqueen]

86. It is!

Glad we can still joke!

:loveya:

:hi:


(And he IS sexy. That's a fact. :P)

[book_worm]

10. Oh well, so be it. I'm thinking this thing will go to the convention, unfortunately

but in the end Obama will be the nominee.

[jackson_dem]

73. book_worm did you hear Obama himself is saying this will go to June?

Read between the lines. He is conceding Indiana. This was on the Washington Post's site.

[MarjorieG]

13. How much was Philly manipulation with too few machines, ballots, or naything to with programming?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. I had a feeling things were bad - with Richardson on talking about

Indiana and No Carolina. And Axelrod saying anything under 20....

Sucks.

who's richard woolf anyway

[my3boyz]

23. When did Axelrod say that? He did not sound like that this morning. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

53. On Morning Joe - did you interpret it differently??

[my3boyz]

58. Hmmmm...yeah I did. I took it as him trying to manage expectations. I wasn't sure

if he really believed it. I guess you could be right. However, after seeing him on the show I did not feel bummed about it. I do on the other hand feel bummed about what Richard Wolf said. I knew Obama would not win but I wanted him to keep the margin like Ohio. Oh well...

[book_worm]

24. The Newsweek guy, I think, who KO always has on.

[tishaLA]

33. Sorry I misspelled his name

Just corrected it. I spelled it like VIrginia Woolf.

[jackson_dem]

74. And Obama apparently thinks he has no shot in IN

[featherman]

20. Sounds like they are expecting a 12% loss

Bummer

[Laura PourMeADrink]

54. why do you think 12?

[featherman]

66. Just a guess from the quote "anything less than 15%"

If the Obama camp had more confidence of a single digit result they might have said "anything less that a double digit win". So it seems like they are expecting to lose by low double digits... I just guessed 12%. Hope this is not the case and they are just blowing smoke but...

[MadBadger]

25. Strange considering all Ive heard is that there is heavy turnout.

[my3boyz]

28. Perhaps not in the areas where he is strong. nt

[jackson_dem]

77. Supposedly turnout is great in Clinton strongholds

:thumbsup:

[MoJoWorkin]

27. Here is what Ed Rendell is to have said at his lunch

Gov. Rendell was at the Famous deli for the usual election-day power lunch, and sounding positive about his candidate's chances -- but more positive if all of the state's counties vote.

The guv said that, if the turnout is even through the state, Clinton will win by 6 to 10 points.

If turnout is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by 4 to 6 points, Rendell said.





http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Who_was_-_and_wasnt_-_at_the_power_lunch_today.html


Who knows?

[my3boyz]

37. He could be lowering expectations. He is too close to Hillary

campaign to take anything he says as the truth.

[Secret_Society]

29. From the rhetorical positioning of both...

candidates it seems that this should be a 10 point win for HRC. The Obama camp today has clearly backed away from predictions that it would be close in an attempt to change expectations. Also, I believe that late deciders will again go to Clinton and contribute a couple points to her margin.

[babylonsister]

47. I don't understand why enthusiastic people wouldn't vote, and there's

been lots of enthusiasm from what I've heard. Makes no sense to me.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

56. I don't either - You see people with tears in their eyes after he

speaks - seems more likely they'd go and vote vs the average everyday person.

[jackson_dem]

79. They are voting--for Clinton

[maryallen]

81. Obama: 35,000 Supporters in Philadelphia; Clinton:400.

Yeah, it's a little hard to understand.

Check out the pictures on Daily Kos that show Hillary & Bill somewhere in PA yesterday with less than 100 spectators.

The PA "Machine," the voting machines, the media, and a thousand little tricks, like moving voting precincts, offer some explanation, I suppose, but this is getting harder and harder to take.

Why are Americans playing along with this theatrical drama called "A Presidential Election?"
Right ...
It's an elaborate illusion.

[BklynChick]

32. don't people in the burbs vote after work?

[MoJoWorkin]

41. Yes, and in the city as well---also, I was seeing reports where

turnout was indeed heavy in the Philly area

[jackson_dem]

80. Obama tends to do worse after work. Look at the exit polls from the past

His students and affluent base can vote early but then the working folks come out and give Clinton a boost.

[MadBadger]

40. Just read on nytimes.com that the Philly suburbs have heavy turnout

Very busy in Montgomery COunty and reporting long lines in Bucks, Delaware, and Chester counties as well.

[rodeodance]

50. So, A KEITH Olbermann buddy 'jounalist' spinning a tall tale--aka LYING

[cali]

55. stop pulling stuff out of your rear

you haven't a clue whether it's true or not. you just don't like the report and you cultists will throw anyone under the bus who doesn't suck up to queen hilly.

[BklynChick]

45. hopefully it's just a managing expectations thing

[malik flavors]

49. I think there might atleast be a late boost for Obama. Alot of suburb type will get off work...

in about a half hour, and head to the polls. College students might also vote after classes.

Hoepfully it's not a complete blowout.

[MadBadger]

64. Just read that it was reported that there is record breaking turnout in Bucks County

Thats good for Obama.

[my3boyz]

65. Was that info in a blog or actual article? Just curious! nt

[MadBadger]

67. Actual article from CBS Philly

[TragedyandHope]

76. It ain't over 'til it's over

but that would not be totally unexpected. I'm hoping for a single-digit loss, but I'll be satisfied with any narrowing of the gap from the original 20+ point projections. It still doesn't change anything as far as the overall race. The only difference it will make is in the tone of the MSM's contrived horse race coverage.

[Auntie Bush]

78. What! After all the millions of dollars and negative ads...he's losing?

I can't believe he's doing so poorly! But, what do you expect from promises of change without knowing what the change will entail. If I went to your child's nursery school and said, "Wow, now we are really going to make some changes!" Would you be all excited...not knowing how they can make those changes or how much they will cost or hurt the students? You'd be a fool to jump on the bandwagon for change. I want meat and answers...not vague promises! Hillary has plans and answers. Obama does not! Simple!

[tishaLA]

87. he talks about the changes he wants to make in each speech

there are none so blind as those who will not see. there are none so deaf as those who will not hear.

[Auntie Bush]

92. Are you insinuating all Pennsylvanians are blind and deaf as well as bitter?

No wonder his millions spent have been for naught. H's going to lose PA.

[tishaLA]

94. Nope. Just that YOU, who said he lacks specifics

about the change he wants, refuse to hear what he has to say. It's because you have become increasingly small as this primary has progressed, I suppose.

[Auntie Bush]

97. Small? Just like all those Pennsylvanians that are going to vote for Hillary?

Obviously they don't see what he really plans to change or they would vote for him...if they agreed with his plans. Maybe you are too small in your thinking to realize this. You need to get off DU and get out in the real world more. You believe your own propaganda.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

82. Hang in there. The Philly burbs vote late in the day.

[joeybee12]

88. For the last few days Barry has been trying to downplay expectations...

...should be an interesting night.