Imagine you are an undeclared super delegate and you are

[Erin Elizabeth]

watching the returns out of Pennsylvania tonight. You want to declare tomorrow and finally put yourself in one column or another, so you are watching the totals tonight very very closely.

Based on what you are seeing, who are you declaring for tomorrow? And why?

[cliffordu]

1. Obama - She cannot win the delegates she needs.

After SC she probably cannot win the popular vote either.

[Erin Elizabeth]

2. Do you mean North Carolina?

Or am I confused? I thought NC was coming up.

[cliffordu]

7. Yeah. Thanks...the wife and I were talking about SC.......I'm going to leave it

like it is as bait....

:hi:

[DemBones DemBones]

3. Clinton because she can win the other primaries and the election.

If the party gives Obama the nomination in Denver, they may as well send John McCain the keys to the White House.

[cliffordu]

9. Yeah, unfortunately you're completely wrong.....

[Zhade]

20. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.

NT!

[TahitiNut]

4. If I were declaring for Obama, I'd do it AFTER Pennsylvania and BEFORE North Carolina.

As a politician, I want to "invest" on the upswing ... and "hint" that MY endorsment was partially responsible for influencing the upswing. I'd WAIT to get the MOST out of a news cycle - and not attempt to upstage the returns. (We DON'T KNOW what the delegate count from Pennsylvania is yet.)

[quakerboy]

8. is that why the past 2 weeks

have been much better than usual for Hillary, and not quite as good as usual for Obama? Still Balancing in his favor, but you think they may be waiting for after Penn so their endorsement didn't run afoul of his predicted loss?

[Erin Elizabeth]

10. Yep, I would have if I were them.

That's actually what motivated my original question. I would imagine there are undeclared SDs watching very carefully tonight.

[TahitiNut]

17. Yup. NO politician wants to be associated with a "loss."

At the same time, IT'S ABOUT THE DELEGATES ... not the popular vote. But the HYPE and the SPIN distract folks into thinking that "one person one vote" is the rule ... but it's not.

[quakerboy]

18. What about

Casey?

[TahitiNut]

19. Good question.

As an in-state PLEO, he has other "considerations" ... and I'm guessing he (at a minimum) needs in-state Obama supporters more than he needs in-state Clinton supporters to keep his career going. We can make that assumption, I think, lacking any other (unknown) quid-pro-quo's.

[quakerboy]

22. interesting.

so do you have any specific predictions as to SD's who may come out, or even numbers as to when they might do so?

[TahitiNut]

26. Well, if Edwards were to endorse Obama, the time would be ripe in a few days.

Even though he's not a superdelegate, he'd help ANY political aspirations he might have by climbing on board.

I don't follow who the undeclared PLEO's are ... and I'm rarely inclined to gaze into my crystal ball. I've usually kept my rare predictions/prognostications safely in the KSOTO range, even if relatively few people see it. (I knew the market bubble would burst in 200 and Bush would take us into a ME war before the end of 2001. Those were obvious.)

[crispini]

14. Oooo. You are teh smrt!

Very good strategy!

[Spazito]

5. Interesting question....

I would look at the number of states already won by each candidate, the number of delegates already won by each candidate, the fund-raising capabilities of each candidate, the "coat-tail" factor of each candidate and how Pennsylvania changed each of those factors or how it did not and then make my decision accordingly.

[NightWatcher]

6. voting for Obama: Hillary was the front runner and didnt pull it out

She's broke- beyond broke, she's in debt.
She's shuffled her campaign personnel constantly, Even ones tied to Columbian trade deals
Bill kept opening his mouth and installing ugliness into the race.
He's got the popular vote.
He's got 1.5 million donors and an well organized grassroots organization.

If I'm a Super, he's the only one who is "electable"

[Honeycombe8]

11. Wait a week, see how the polls in IN are, then endorse Obama a week after that....

to help momentum going into Indiana and North Carolina.

[Erin Elizabeth]

13. That's a good strategy.

[Bensthename]

12. She needed to win 60% on this and remaining states. This was her first failure.

So he/she/it would vote for Obama.

[Capn Sunshine]

15. Let's look at tonight's math for the answer to that

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

2008 General Primary
Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Unofficial Returns
*** 6,441 out of 9,263 Districts (69.53%) Reporting Statewide ***

President of the United States


Democratic Primary

Candidate Votes Percent
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)

734,067 45.7%
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)

873,526 54.3%





8.6% margin. Chester county (heavily Obama)still not reporting. She started at 22% plus. Like every other state, the longer she campaigns there, the more votes she loses.

If Obama had another two weeks he would have overtaken her.

HOW does this demonstrate electability?
A: It doesn't.

Hillary is broke.
We have about 30 million on hand.

Fundraising is a corollary of electability.

I just explained this basic principle to about 18 Superdelegates this evening in a conference call.

[Erin Elizabeth]

16. Wow

Well if I were an undecided SD, you would have convinced me for sure.

:hi:

[quakerboy]

23. Thank you for that

I hope Chester comes in strong.

[quakerboy]

24. Thank you for that

I hope Chester comes in strong.

[high density]

21. Give me a break

After this, the super delegates are going for Obama, just like they were yesterday. To do otherwise would make the outrage over the ABC "debate" look like kids at an ice cream truck.

[Erin Elizabeth]

27. I agree with your post, but why do I need to give you a break?

[berni_mccoy]

25. I'd be laughing at all the idiots trying to predict my vote and wondering why I vote the way I do.

[cynatnite]

28. Regardless of tonight's results, I'd still vote my conscience...

just as I expect they all will.

[GoldieAZ49]

29. I keep my powder dry until after the primaries

and watch what happens between now and then