Fact: Clinton needs 70% of the remaining contests to catch up with Obama

[FunkyLeprechaun]

I decided to play with Slate's delegate calculator, starting with 70% as a Clinton win. She needs to win Guam (May 3), Indiana, North Carolina (May 6), West Virginia (May 13), Kentucky, Oregon (May 20), and Puerto Rico by 70% with Montana and South Dakota in a dead heat to catch up with Obama (and just by ONE delegate!).

Then I played with her winning ALL the remaining contests by 65%, she's still behind Obama (He beats her 1,630 to 1,604).

What about 68%? He still beats her 1,619 to 1,615.

In other words she needs to win 70% of all the remaining contests to beat him in the delegate count.

Hillary's done. There is NO way she can overcome his lead.

Despite her winning PA, I think she should drop out, because there is NO way she can win this.

To play: http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[last_texas_dem]

1. Hey now

Perhaps Clinton didn't major in math, but in miracles?



:hide:

[FunkyLeprechaun]

2. All she needs is to rub Huckabee's nose for luck

And she'll get it!

(I'm thinking of this, http://www.gonomad.com/destinations/0601/springfield.html)

[phrigndumass]

6. LMAO! I'm from Springfield IL, and I'm tracking the Huckabee Index!

That kills me. You pegged me twice in one post!

:rofl:

[Gore1FL]

3. Huckabee's strategy was different

He didn't slime McCain at every turn. He simply ran a positive long shot campaign.

It's interesting that he isn't disliked by a huge chunk of the GOP for his extended run.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

4. It actually makes me wonder

If the Republicans had a similar delegate allocation system as us, would McCain be the R's presumptive nominee at this point in time?

[Window]

5. I wish she would just go away.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

8. I'm on the same boat

And I'm in the UK! You have NO idea how many times my sleeping pattern's been whacked out with this primary season.

[Window]

11. LOL! Mine too. I'm just thankful I don't work anymore.

[dbmk]

12. Dane here

And the last 3-4 days have been horrible. :)

[FunkyLeprechaun]

14. Last night I drank Blue Bear Stimulation Drink (an alternative to Red Bull, cheaper)

So I could stay up to watch with my mum in MN over the webcam. By the time it was time to start I had 3 Blue Bears.

When they said she was projected to win, I was feeling a bit sick. I was wondering if that was that or the drink.

[phrigndumass]

7. K/R

[FunkyLeprechaun]

9. Thanks!

People do need to check the Slate Delegate calculator more often. Even if she wins the remaining contests by the same amount as in Penn, she still lags behind Obama.

[dbmk]

10. Slates calculator has some small problems

Seen over all the contests its perhaps close to ok.
But it does not take the districts into account and what it does, and doesn't do, at certain percentages.

I have taken all the remaining districts into account. And I too arrive at 70-30 needed for Hillary, if the remaining SDs split 50-50.

Here is my graph so you can play all you like:

[dbmk]

13. I am going to play with some imaginary results from IN and NC later today

And see how those numbers will add up afterwards. Prediction: Game over, Hillary.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

15. I so agree with you

She needs to win 90% of the contests (including Florida and Michigan) to pass the threshold needed to secure the nomination.

A Snowman in Hell has a better chance.