Senator Obama has to win both North Carolina and Indiana on May 6 to remain viable

[Tropics_Dude83]

In fact, I would say he needs to win by at least 8 in North Carolina and by 2.5 in Indiana to have a solid case to make to the superdelegates. If he can win a hotly and closely contested state like Indiana, it'll show that he has resilience and can bounce back. It will also prove that the "demography is destiny" theme state by state is correct; thus explaining Hillary's win in PA.

I also think that he needs to at least encroach on Senator Clinton's core constituencies in these 2 states.

If he loses Indiana and wins North Carolina based on his traditional base, any reasonable uncommitted superdelegate would have to assume that he has serious electability issues and vote for Clinton.

Clinton has proved that she is eminently electable by winning the big states. Now, it's time for Obama to show that he's electable by winning a too close to call contest. If not, his candidacy is in peril.

Also, yesterday's PA exit polls show why HRC is more electable at this point in time.

[scheming daemons]

1. He'll win by double-digits in NC.... and all he has to do it tie (within 3% either way) in Indiana..

[PBS Poll-435]

19. SUSA has it in single digits... nt

[scheming daemons]

27. I didn't say it was double-digits now.... she won't spend any time there, she'll be focused on IN.

She can only afford to work one state or the other. She'll choose the one she has a chance in.... Indiana.

[GetTheRightVote]

2. I see you have been drinking the Koo-Aid as well,

[scheming daemons]

3. "Obama to show that he's electable by winning a too close to call contest."

Missouri

[SoCalDem]

4. and when Hillary wins Neptune, she will wrap it all up n/t

[Larkspur]

7. No, it's Uranus that she needs to win

[SoCalDem]

I was going to say Uranus, but I didn't wanna offend you

:rofl::P:

[FrenchieCat]

5. Just like Hillary had to win PA by double digits to remain viable

but she didn't.

and Hillary is not more electable.

She can't win Big Cities which is how Democrats win Big states.

So you are just really wrong all the way around.

[sandnsea]

Guess What. He doesn't have to win a flippin' thing

That's how far ahead he is. And guess what else, he's going to win NC, OR, MT, SD and probably IN. You're suggesting we give her the nomination when she's only won 14 states??

[blm]

6. Which big state are you saying Obama can't win? And if HRC can't win big cities how will she win big

states in the general? That is, using your logic, of course.

[scheming daemons]

8. "yesterday's PA exit polls show why HRC is more electable at this point in time."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5648802&mesg_id=5648802



Are you sure you aren't related to NJSecularist?

[still_one]

9. I agree, but I fully expect Clinton to try and take this to the Convention

even if he wins by a blow out

I hope I am wrong

[Iwasthere]

10. Goalposts have been moved soooo many times.....

The posts must be worn to nubs by now

[Tropics_Dude83]

20. A pledged delegate lead obtained in February will be....

irrelevant by June 5th. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer stated today that electabilty is his key concern. That's what the superdelegates will be basing their decisions on.

That said, the math is still bad for Clinton even with superdelegates added unless you make 2,208 the magic number counting FL/MI voting in some capacity. I admit that.

Alas, the electoral college map is bad for Obama in November.

Clinton's map is better because she has strong GE support in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. She wins just 2 of these and she is Madam President.

For me, it's that as much as I like Barack Obama, I'd rather win with Hillary than lose with Barack.

[newmajority]

24. Steny WHORE's concerns have nothing whatsoever to do with "electability"

They have to do with continuing the agenda of puke lite neoconservative bullshit.

[high density]

43. Ummmm

If the pledged delegate lead Obama has obtained is irrelevant, then why did/are we spending all this money on primaries and caucuses?

She doesn't have "strong GE support" in any of those states, by the way.

[MattBaggins]

48. Wrong wrong wrong

The very metrics you Hillary followers use against Obama's wins in southern states applies as well to OH and PA.

Hillary failed miserably in securing the needed city votes in the big states. Just like the nation each state is made up of red and blue counties. All Hillary managed to do was win in counties that will turn on her faster than a hungry alligator. Every county she won in OH and PA will vote for McCain come November and Hillary will fail utterly trying to "triangulate" a win from a base of voters pissed off at her.

Obama on the other hand starts with the cities in the bag and has to reach out to the independents in the suburbs. Yes the independents you know them? The ones Hillary gets some of her highest unfavorability ratings from.

[Tesha]

51. They mounted them on a handy set of wheels after Super Tuesday. (NT)

[JackORoses]

11. I'm really glad you have turned coat to Hillary. You were giving Obama supporters a bad name.

[JeanGrey]

12. ROTFLMAO!! You guys are too much...............

[zulchzulu]

13. HRC is 14-30. If this was baseball, she'd be in LAST PLACE.

Don't worry. Obama WILL win both Indiana and North Carolina.

HRC is about as electable as a pile of rotten fish.

[Pirate Smile]

14. Hillary Clinton has to win both North Carolina and Indiana or else she is out.

[bluestateguy]

15. You know this reminds me of a high school basketball game I went to

Out team was leading by 20 points. One of our players shot an airball. The other side's fans starting taunting "Air-ball, air-ball, air-ball..." So our fans chanted back, "score-board, score-board, score-board...", as we all pointed towards the scoreboard that showed the only result that counted.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

16. If only North Carolina and Indiana matter, and none of the previous contests

then why the hell did they spend all that time and money on those contests? Heck, we should have just cut to the chase and let Indiana and North Carolina decide our candidate for us!

Hillary has already lost. She just hasn't accepted that fact yet.

[walldude]

17. serious electability issues

Neither of them have "serious electability issues". This whole bullshit about Obama can't win here or there is whining speculation. Unless you have some info saying that not a single Hillary supporter will vote for Obama if he gets the nod. Same goes for her. These races are between 2 democrats. All these dire predictions of who can do what are nothing but peoples opinions and fantasies.

In spite of what people on DU say, McCain is a dead horse. The guy can't open his mouth without saying something stupid. Americans are voting on 3 issues. The war, which McCain wants to continue for 100 years. The economy, in which McCain's plan is more tax breaks for the wealthy. And Health care which McCain's plan is.. well he thinks health care in America is just fine. McCain is against the American people on every issue that is important. People need to quit the Chicken Little crap.

[SoonerPride]

18. If Hillary loses either she is done. She has to win em all.

[XemaSab]

34. Not just win them:

Win them BIG.

[John Q. Citizen]

21. He already won MO. He already encroached on his opponents core constituency in PA and WI.

He's leading in pledged delegates, contests won, and popular vote.

He already won Texas, a big state and IL, a big state.

Obama will have won a majority of the pledged delegates on May 20th.

Obama will be the next president of the US. That will convince you, maybe.

[Adelante]

22. It's Hillary who has to win them nt

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

23. Wishful thinking

and you're gonna piss off them small states if you keep comparing sizes.

Obama in Indiana: by 4 points
North Carolina: double digits fer Obama
Oregon: Obama landslide.

[XemaSab]

25. Hate to burst your bubble:

If the superdelegates were to split 50-50, Obama needs to get 40% in every upcoming election in order to get to 2025.

In other words, he could get EATEN ALIVE and still be the nominee.

[Tropics_Dude83]

30. But he'd be WEAK and you ignore the possibility of en masse SD endorsements

We might see 70% or more of the remaining superdelegates go with one candidate or the other.

He encroached on her constituencies in WI and VA before his campaign hit a rough patch. Let's see him do it after.

That said, if he wins both NC and Indiana, my doubts about him will vanish. It'll be the first too close state he won since Super Tuesday.

[scheming daemons]

33. Not going to happen. The remaining uncommitted SDs can't stand her......

...much like most of the country.

[XemaSab]

37. He'd be WEAK if that happened, yeah

but it's not going to happen. ;)

[Tropics_Dude83]

26. 40% of HRC PA voters will vote for Mccain per exits

I used to think that Obama was right when he said that he can easily win her supporters while she can't get his. I think it's actually the other way around.

[scheming daemons]

28. Those numbers are soft and won't hold.... by Nov, they'll vote Dem.....

If you believe those exit polls will hold for November, you're smoking something.

[tritsofme]

59. Why do you think that? History proves that large numbers of Democrats have no problem

ditching their party and contributing to huge GOP electoral landslides.

[stillcool]

50. That is their choice..

[anonymous171]

29. Hey Benedict! Remember your prediction about Obama's polling?

[yourguide]

31. HRC has to win every remain race at 68% to remain viable

and catch up in delegates.

[Tropics_Dude83]

32. pledged delegates not overall delegates

That's a key distinction.

[XemaSab]

41. How so?

:shrug:

And how is she going to do that? :shrug:

[yourguide]

47. no, that includes supers...DO THE MATH!

[MadBadger]

35. Wow you sure are brain dead.

[LSK]

36. How is Hillary more electable when she is broke???

If I am a SD I am going to look at the fact that Obama is loaded with cash for the general and he can win states like Colorado and Virginia.

Howard Deans 50 state strategy is working and your DLC types just can't wrap your heads around running a campaign in "red" states.

[MattBaggins]

38. What planet do you come from?

He could lose all the remaining contests and still have more pledged delegates. Sorry for you but Hillary has to make the case why she lose yet still be given the nomination.

I know this is very very difficult for many of you, but Hillary is not winning. She is not the front runner. She is in fact losing. The onus is on her to beg the SDs not Obama.

Besides when it comes to the convention and she is behind in PDs and pop vote her argument is going to be some version of Jackson_Dem's "ahh you know the white problem?" meme anyway. That one won't fly further than 50 pound canonball launched from a potato gun.

[IndependentDem]

39. hmm, so Obama is the underdog again and "has to win". I love how it bounces back and forth...

How about this: Clinton has to win all remaining states by at least 30% to take the lead in pledged delegates and have a solid case to make to the superdelegates.

[knixphan]

40. He can go 50% all the way, and be fine.

Fund-raising? he blows her away...

New voter recruits and expansion of Dean's 50-state strategy? blows her away...

Just needs to have more delegates.

[XemaSab]

42. You're wrong.

He could go 40% and be fine. :P

[Lerkfish]

45. yes, you're correct. He only has to lose by ten points in all remaing states to win

[XemaSab]

49. Isn't 40-60 losing by 20 points?

:shrug: :P

(And by the way, this discussion is entirely academic. He's going to beat HER by 20+ in Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon, 10+ in North Carolina, probably draw it in Indiana, and probably lose by 15 or so in Kentucky and West Virginia.)

[Lerkfish]

53. lol, yeah, you're right.

[knixphan]

58. :)

That's 'wrong I can believe in'!

[Lerkfish]

44. wow, I want what you guys are smokin!

hey cheech! pass the clip!

[redqueen]

46. Boy, the next few weeks oughtta be great...

[karynnj]

52. Your logic amazes me - so if Obama wins NC and IN by 2 percent each - so he is not viable

and Hillary behind by around 150 delegates is viable? Are you Mark Penn? The exit polls show nothing about the general election match up.

[BeyondGeography]

54. Asinine

[Zhade]

55. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.

NT!

[grantcart]

56. lol thanks for the laugh

[Rosa Luxemburg]

57. codswallop

[thevoiceofreason]

60. I have a book for you - "Statistics for Dummies"

Not that you are a dummy, it's really the name of the book.

What type of fermented beverage would you like with your cheese?