The only numbers we need to remember: 90 ... 137 ... 65 ... 80

[phrigndumass]

Let's simplify things. There are only four numbers we need to remember:

90

The primary season is about 90% over. Remember last night as the numbers were coming in from Pennsylvania? Not much changed between 90% of the results in and 100% of the results in. What we have ahead of us in this primary has already been done nine times before.

137

Senator Obama's pledged delegate count is 137 below the halfway mark. Nancy Pelosi has informed us that a large number of superdelegates are standing by to endorse the candidate who earns the majority of pledged delegates. The way things are going now, Senator Obama will reach this threshold on May 20 during the Oregon and Kentucky primaries.

65

Once Senator Obama's pledged delegate total reaches Pelosi's number (or even before then), only 65 of the remaining superdelegates are needed for Senator Obama to clinch the nomination. That's only about 20% of the remaining superdelegates The pledged delegates for the remaining primaries will carry him the rest of the way.

80

In order for Senator Clinton to reach the nomination, she will need 80% of the remaining superdelegates to agree with each other and endorse her. And this would be on top of the pledged delegates she is expected to receive in the remaining primary contests. The likelihood of 80% of the remaining superdelegates agreeing with each other is very low. So far, the superdelegates who have already endorsed have split roughly 53/47. It would be much more probable for the remaining superdelegates to follow that trend, go 50/50 or 60/40, or at a ratio of 2:1 at the very most.


.


More detailed information can be found here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5639954

:dunce:

[snooper2]

1. Hillary INC.

and their supporters don't do numbers...math is HARD and all that you know...

Shame the collection agencies do numbers though, cause somebody's going to have to pay those outstanding debts :rofl:

[JBoy]

2. Math rocks.

K&R.

[Khaotic]

3. The stark reality of numbers

While the MSM and Hillbots continue to think they can defy reality, they can't.

With each state Obama gets closer to the nomination.

He came out of PA with 73 delegates.

While the state might have been mostly Hillary light blue, Obama did VERY well.

The drip, drip, drip continues.

[phrigndumass]

7. And Senator Obama managed a million votes in Pennsylvania!

How could a superdelegate not choose a front-runner who loses but gathers a million votes in a swing state?!

[hogwyld]

4. Who knew that math can be sexy???

But those numbers really hit the trigger!

[phrigndumass]

16. LOL ... Right Said Fred

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. Math has a well known Obama bias

[Liberal Veteran]

19. Math is also extremely sexist!

And undemocratic!

[thevoiceofreason]

6. Here's a few more for ya.

Delaware County's 7 missing boxes just came in.

Now Barack trails only 9.146%, or 207,529.

I can't wait to see the 40 missing boxes out of Philadelphia County. And the provisionals.

[phrigndumass]

8. Hopefully this week!

Maybe the delegate net will end up being less than 12 for Senator Clinton.

[thevoiceofreason]

13. It already is.

Go to kos and look ate psifighter37's detailed, district by district analysis. It's at 10 now (pretty solid), and could (God willing) even go to 8.

[phrigndumass]

15. Wow, the Green Papers had it at 10 as recently as this morning.

Pledged delegate changes also affect the Huckabee Index. (I discovered this to be true when you were able to get the Mississippi count changed!)

Eight would be tasty!

[thevoiceofreason]

17. I feel like the SeaBees in WWII

Who followed the first wave of soldiers and cleaned up, did the engineering, built the airfields, etc. allowing the armed forces to keep pushing further ahead.

[phrigndumass]

18. That's a great analogy!

Spot on, too. We really need to give you a medal for that!

:D

[rniel]

9. One more

If howard dean figures out how to seat the florida or michigan delegates. Let's say they decided to divide it up 50/50, in a way Hillary would probably want them not seated at this point because this will put him closer to the number of pledged delegates he needs.

[phrigndumass]

14. That's true, but the target number would change, too.

Without Florida and Michigan, the target is 2,024. With Florida and Michigan, the target goes up to 2,208.

Howard Dean recently released a memo stating that both campaigns needed to agree on the method of counting anything from Florida and Michigan before they are officially counted. I don't see the two campaigns agreeing anytime soon, so the numbers from those states probably won't move until convention.

:hi:

[tritsofme]

10. "Declared" SDs are not set in stone.

If there are compelling arguments after the primaries for a Clinton nomination, "declared" Obama SDs may migrate over to Clinton.

[phrigndumass]

12. And vice versa.

We've seen it happen a few times already, both ways.

But the probability of a majority of one candidate's superdelegates migrating to the other candidate would require more than one compelling argument.

Senator Obama has more than one compelling argument in favor of his candidacy: Most delegates, most states won, most money raised, the ability to increase interest in his candidacy by campaigning in specific areas, among other things.

Senator Clinton might be able to come up with one compelling argument, but she has more than one compelling argument against her candidacy: High consistent negatives, a brand name that she needs to overcome, her vote on the IWR resolution, and a difficulty raising money when her campaign needs it the most. Also fewer delegates and fewer states won.

A win is a win, and Senator Obama has won twice as many states as Senator Clinton.

[rock]

11. They told me there wouldn't be any math

when I joined DU.

[Dawgs]

20. I don't think you need the first number.

I think the last three show all we need to know.