Let's be realistic: It really IS over. Academic. In the books.

[Barrymores Ghost]

From Kevin Wolf's Blackberry -

This primary season has been, with few exceptions, little more than a demographic census of the country, adjusted for geography, such that the outcome of the remaining primaries is pretty much already known and will be roughly along the lines of the following:

Guam: 2-2 split

Indiana: 39-33 Obama

North Carolina: 65-50 Obama

West Virginia: 10-18 Clinton

Oregon: 30-22 Obama

Kentucky: 23-28 Clinton

Montana: 9-7 Obama

South Dakota: 8-7 Obama

Puerto Rico: 25-30 Clinton

Note that these are not popular vote totals, but delegate splits per state (adding up at-large and CD delegates). Remember, on even numbered CDs, one can win 62% of the vote and still only come out even in delegates. Hence, ergo, thusly, there can be significant play in the popular vote without much impact on the delegate splits.

So, the status of things now is:

Clinton will come out of PA with a net delegate gain of 10. (This is less than half of the 25 Obama netted in Virginia, by the way.) Thus, Obama now has 1494 pledged delegates and Clinton now has 1333 pledged delegates -- a margin of 161 pledged delegates for Obama. There are, however, only 352 pledged delegates left to get.

The delegate split estimates above mean that Obama will likely pick up 211 more pledged delegates and Clinton will likely pick up 197 pledged delegates. And this means that, at the end of the process, Obama will likely have 1705 (1494+211) pledged delegates and Clinton will have 1530 (1333+197).

Now, to the Supers (un-pledged and un-pledged add-ons) -- there are 795 of them. By last count of published endorsements, Clinton has a 22 Super-delegate lead -- 256 to Obama's 234. This leaves 243 that are not yet decided or determined (e.g., un-pledged add-ons).

Assuming my pledged delegate count numbers hold and the already-declared Supers don't flip, Obama can count on 1939 delegates (1705+234) and Clinton can count on 1786 (1530+256).

The magic number for the nomination is 2024. Thus, to win the nomination, Obama needs 85 (2024 - 1939) of the remaining 243 Supers and Clinton needs 238 (2024 - 1786) of the remaining 243 Supers. To state it another way, Obama needs only 35% of the remaining Supers to win.

Clinton needs 98% of the remaining Supers to win. You do the math.

So, all Clinton is doing by continuing to fight is to delay the inevitable and to spend Democratic donor dollars to make the case for weeks on end that Obama is unelectable with white blue collar workers/voters instead of helping him become more electable with that demographic for the general election.

So, the new motto should be: "Stop the Drama, Vote Obama."

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Academic?

Elitist.

[XemaSab]

3. He probably drank a latte while writing this

:eyes:

[Barrymores Ghost]

5. Where's the effin' camera??? WHERE IS IT???

:wow:

[Barrymores Ghost]

4. Hehhehheh

:rofl:

[Liberal Gramma]

7. Mathematics is elitist?

I thought it was basic education.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. It has a well known pro-Obama bias.

And it's very sexist.

[Barrymores Ghost]

11. Apparently not for Hillarians. N/T

[nebula]

22. Numbers are elitist!

Hillary supporters are all about emotions and gut feelings.

they have no use for facts. facts are elitist!

[MADem]

2. Yeah.....because YOU say so!

:rofl:

How funny.

[DerekJ]

6. Refute the article.

[Barrymores Ghost]

8. What? You want snark AND an educated response?

Should she rub your feet, too?

[redqueen]

9. *snort*

[Barrymores Ghost]

13. Is that a latte running down your screen, now?

:crazy:

[redqueen]

14. ... and I'm wiping it off with my pinkie raised!

:o

[Barrymores Ghost]

16. Snooty bitch. N/T

[redqueen]

19. Aw, don't be bitter now...

[DerekJ]

12. Nah, just trying to get on her nerves.

:evilgrin:

[Barrymores Ghost]

15. A Rec would be cooler.

The more that see this, the larger our company in the realist-based universe...

[DerekJ]

27. Done. The 10th :)

[Barrymores Ghost]

29. U RAWK!

:headbang:

[MADem]

23. Why should I "refute" your fantasy figures? You want me to "refute" shit that hasn't HAPPENED yet.

Get over yourself. That's an idiotic request. Why don't we let the damn VOTERS prove or disprove your anxious theories, hmmmm?

That's how they do it in democracies.

If your candidate has it in the bag, why are you wasting all your time frantically posting "articles" and demanding that people "refute" them? Why aren't you out taking the sun and fresh air, basking in your absolute certainty of his coronation, and having a good time?

After all, it's a "done deal," right?

So stop sweating it, if the deal iss so fucking "done," whydoncha?

Unless, maybe, it's NOT a done deal--and that makes you a nervous, badgering scold.

I can wait. I have NO problem letting the voters have their say. Why can't you do the same? What are you afraid of?

[DerekJ]

28. So you can't. Apology accepted :)

[MADem]

31. You need to apologize for that idiotic remark. But you won't, because you aren't

capable of rational discourse.

Keep sweating nervously over your "figures" there. It seems to give you some sense of purpose in life, which, apparently, you desperately need.

[DerekJ]

32. yada yada yada. It's called most plausible scenario, supported by mathematical probabilities.

Put a hole in the scenario or STFU.

[OzarkDem]

17. How many of those states will Obama carry in the GE, and

Will they be enough to win the electoral vote? Talk about math...

[Barrymores Ghost]

20. Well, if Hillary and hers decide they're going to take their ball home...

...and sulk through the GE, who knows?

I guess it's kinda up to you whether you want four more years of Bush or not, isn't it?

[tekisui]

18. I was working on damn near he exact same thing, while you posted this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5653256&mesg_id=5653256

[Barrymores Ghost]

21. Sorry to be a buzzkill...

GOOD work, though...the count just about matches up, to the nickel.

[tekisui]

24. We must be right, then.

:toast:

[Window]

25. K/R.

:kick:

[Austinitis]

26. Popular vote. n/t

[Barrymores Ghost]

30. Enjoy your fantasy while it lasts. N/T

[BootinUp]

33. Pledged delegates alone cannot win it for Obama

and other factors will affect the super delegate decisions. And don't forget FL and MI.

[smiley_glad_hands]

34. K & R for the mathematically challenged. eom

[dbmk]

35. I posted some reality-biased graphs here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5639954&mesg_id=5652983

They are what they are. Pure numbers. And compared to yours I have given Hillary quite a bit more in IN.

I especially would welcome Hillary supporters to use them, and use it to assess their own projections of the coming race.

Rec'ed btw for being a numbers post.
I swear I will name the next one I make "<insert candidate name here> is <insert ism here>". Seems to be very popular.

[Barrymores Ghost]

37. Your kung fu is AMAZING...hats off to you...

...and a quick little bow out of professional courtesy...if I could locate the effin' emoticon...

[JBoy]

36. Your numbers are drama-killing.

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

38. Obviously delegates are neither pledged nor super

That being said, once the world wakes up and gets a grip and stops drinking koolaid and stops worshipping the speechifier and stops goddamning America and gets a clue and stops fooling themselves and stops lying to everyone, they'll realize that all of the pledged delegates and super delegates really hate Obama and will instantly change their backing to Hillary. The final outcome will thus be:

Hillary - 4,048
Obama - 0

I can't believe you Obamabots don't get this! Shame on you all! It is so obvious to everyone in the world but you idiots!!1!!

hhmmmpphhh ... :yoiks:





(eta: K/R)

[GeorgeGist]

39. The fat lady is still singing ...

and I don't mean Hillary.