Obama only needs 304 more delegates to seal the nomination

[book_worm]

He is currently at 1,720 with 2024 to nominate and the following primaries coming up: Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota.

I'll try to be conservative but lets look at how the delegates may split:

Guam (4) I'll make 2-2 between Obama and Hillary
Indiana (72) Let's say it's very close and I'll split them 38-34 for Obama (if she wins reverse it)
North Carolina (115) If Obama wins by twenty or more I'll give him 68-47 for Obama
West Virginia (28) probably a Clinton stronghold. She may come out 18-10 for Clinton
Kentucky (51) Another Clinton stronghold. Let's give her 31-20.
Oregon (52) This is seen as a Obama state. Polls give him double digit lead. Let's say he takes delegation 32-20.
Puerto Rico (55) The most recent poll gave Hill a 15-pt lead, so I'll give her 33-22 delegate edge.
Montana (16) Near states like Colorado, Wyoming and Idaho where Obama has dominated, I think Obama comes out with a 10-6 delegate edge.
South Dakota (15) Recent statewide poll indicates Obama with a double digit lead in another state in a region where Obama has dominated. Lets give him a 9-6 delegate edge.

So in the final nine contests I give Obama an edge in delegates won 211-197. This would edge Obama's total delegates up to 1,931 and at the end of the day of the final primary in early June he would then need only 93 Super Delegates to clinch the nomination. Hillary, currently at 1,593 delegates adding another 197 delegates or so from the final nine contests would be up to 1,790 would need 234 Super Delegates to clinch the nomination for her.

[Maureen54]

1. Upcoming states

Does any one know what Indiana is like politically?

I don't want to give up hope, but it was a depressing day here in PA. I need some optimisms!

[MadBadger]

2. Indiana looks like it could go either way at this point.

[Avalux]

3. Chin up - there is no way Hillary can win by the math. It's not possible.

Indiana will be close probably but North Carolina has more delegates and Obama will win there. I know PA was disappointing, but keep in mind Hillary was expected to win. She was 30 points ahead a few weeks ago!

:hi:

[maxsolomon]

4. there's about 10 democrats in the state

and a million or so clueless mouth breathers. north kentucky, it is often called. the word "extry" is used in daily conversation.

sorry for the dis, but i have family there.

[BluegrassDem]

5. Indiana's population is mostly in urban areas

Contrary to other rural states with their populations dispersed, Indiana's population is basically concentrated in and around Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs.

I heard on the radio about Indiana that Hillary could win 92 counties and Obama could win only 5, but he could end up winning the state cause of the population disparities. The good thing for Obama is that NW Indiana is basically Chicago East. He should do well in the college town and Indianapolis. Hillary will carry the hick votes in the hinterland. She could still win it, but it's hard to say right now.