Clinton Lead in PA Shrinking Below the Double Digit Threshold!

[Blue State Bandit]

PA Department of State reports 9.2% margin between Obama/Clinton

With 9,219 out of 9,264 Districts (99.51%) Reporting Statewide, Clinton's lead is shrinking back to the number that many in the MSM, including Chris Mathews, said would be a killer for the Clinton campaign.

Here are the numbers:

Hillary Clinton 1,238,232 (54.6%)

Barack Obama 1,030,703 (45.4%)

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

Who will report this?

[RBInMaine]

1. PBS was pretty fair. Not as corporate.

[catgirl]

2. K & R

[AtomicKitten]

3. No worries. The moving goalposts will make the inaccurate exiting polling in PENN seem like a dream

She needed a monster win, didn't even break single digits.

The MSM is carrying ClintonCo on pure bullshit now.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

[Dbdmjs1022]

4. Kick! So much for double digits!

[juajen]

5. Know your math. Round up after 5, down under 5. Makes it 55 to 45/

NT

[Guaranteed]

9. Except that, in all instances, for a 10% difference you have to hit 55%.

Which she didn't do.

Therefore, she didn't get a double-digit victory. Never even had one (not sure why OP thinks there was one).

[Yael]

10. The counties they are still counting are in the Philly area

where he has won 67-33 and 77-23 so far.

[Blue State Bandit]

14. I'm sorry, is this my third grade math class?

What ever happened to "count every vote"?

[lumberjack_jeff]

18. In fairness, the differential should be calculated from the raw number.

You don't perform subsequent calculations on figures that have been rounded.

The vote counts round to 55:45. The differential rounds to (if we're talking two significant digits) 9.2 or 9.3

In most worlds 9.2% would be considered unambiguous, but I guess I just don't understand this new math.

[ecdab]

22. Thus one would round 9.2 to 9 not 10

[Guaranteed]

25. Not only that, but 9.9% STILL is not a "double-digit victory," rounded or not.

You can call 9.9% 10% if you like, but what you CAN'T do is call it double-digits. Cuz it just ain't.

[goclark]

30. Just in, 9.2

[DLnyc]

31. So she won 60% to 50%?

[Guaranteed]

No, they tied. 100% to 100%

That's rounded, though, a number of times (and incorrectly the first time), so it's not entirely accurate.

[EffieBlack]

38. But do you know your statistics

To accurately calculate margins, you don't round up the raw numbers - which can substantially skew results - but wait until the calculations are completed to round numbers.

In this instance the correct calculation is 54.7 - 45.4 = 9.2 or, if rounded off, 9 points, not 10.

Your and the MSM's method results in a very misleading number - a number that's almost a full point hgher than the actual figure.
The OP is absolutely correct.

[Blue State Bandit]

6. Up on Political Wire now., was 8.6% earlier.

If she don't break 10% all hell should break loose.

[Yael]

7. She only won 10 delegates

I will post the math in 15 minutes when my 3 thread limit frees up.

Thats a lot of money for 10 votes....

[BootinUp]

8. Looks like 55 to 45 to me. Thanks! nt

[Guaranteed]

12. For a double-digit victory, you have to hit 55%. That's just a fact.

You can do all the rounding you want, but she didn't get into double-digits.

[BootinUp]

13. You might want to review

general guidelines for rounding and calculations. Please eliminate the insignificant digits before performing your calculations.

[Guaranteed]

16. This is flat, deductive logic. No "fudging" with rounding numbers needed.

Premise #1- All double-digit victories by percentage in two-person elections are won with a percentage of 55% or over.

Premise #2- Clinton did not win PA with a percentage of 55% or over.

Conclusion- Therefore, Clinton did not obtain a double-digit victory in PA.


Eat it. Valid and sound.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. ,

[Guaranteed]

24. I saw that. Damned right it was macho.

I LOVE busting out with a PHAT syllogism to prove my point.

[Blue State Bandit]

17. Insignificant as in voters who don't count?

[Greyskye]

19. Some of us are capable of decimal subtraction

Where 54.6 - 45.4 = 9.2

Feel free to round that, though. :rofl:

[Why Syzygy]

20. You can use rounding. But when adding/subtracting fractions, to obtain a fractional total, you must

So. We need a fractional total. We're not going to start out by ROUNDING.

[BootinUp]

28. Either calculate and report to the tenth place (or whatever place you desire)

or calculate and report whole numbers.

[Why Syzygy]

29. We're counting this to the tenth place. So, now you see the discrepancy.

[BootinUp]

32. So you would agree with CNN reporting a 10 point difference

as far as math goes. Forget politics for this question.

[Why Syzygy]

34. It isn't accurate. My teacher would give me a *wrong*.

9.2 < 10

Less than 10 would be more accurate.

[BootinUp]

36. If the teach wanted it to the tenths place

otherwise you better get a ten.

[Blue State Bandit]

33. These are not my numbers, they are the PA DOS numbers...

and they are are reporting this in tenths. Argue all you want, it's not 10%.

[BootinUp]

35. unofficial numbers I would add. nt

[Blue State Bandit]

37. Posted by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania .

And the only reason it is unofficial, is because they are not certified yet. That will take place after the provisional ballots are dealt with as well as the final half a percent of the districts still to be counted. And with all of the reports of voters barred from voting in Philadelphia (http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5921), that may take a while.

[Guaranteed]

11. She never had one. She never hit 55%. nt

[Cha]

15. hilary would be nowhere if she didn't have the m$$$fm

shillin' for her.

[rndmprsn]

23. K&R

[liberaldem4ever]

26. K&R!!

[jedr]

27. what the hell does the truth matter anymore?

The rabbit hole just keeps getting deeper!:banghead:

[RememberWellstone]

39. Why? He lost.

It does'nt change the outcome.