New IN poll conducted after PA

[gabeana]

Obama +1

he has a very good chance to end this May 6th

http://www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/Poll_Obama_Clinton_running_tight_ra_04242008.html

[adoraz]

1. wooooohooo!!

Where was that momentum Hillary supporters were talking about?

[ORDem]

46. SUSA had Clinton up 16 points 10 days ago. She's dropping like a rock.

:dem:

[livetohike]

2. Hopefully Obama had a good rest today and is ready to get

out there fired up and ready to go :-).

[my3boyz]

3. Small sample! I would feel more confident if he was up by a bit more. He has a little time to work

his magic though. :) At least he is not behind. Go Obama! End this thing on May 6th.

[MattNC]

16. With a large margin of error

this poll doesn't tell me much.

[NanceGreggs]

4. From the same site:

"OF INTEREST: A similar poll conducted March 31-April 2 found 49 percent support for Clinton, with Obama's support at 46 percent. The new poll asked which candidate had run the more negative campaign, with 48 percent saying Clinton, 23 percent Obama and 21 percent equal."

[dancingme]

10. smart Indiana voters

:thumbsup:

[malik flavors]

5. Awesome! The last three Indiana polls have shown Obama ahead.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Please Define 'End This'

I can't imagine what it will take to make The Clintons go away.

[wileedog]

7. Obliteration? nt

[cliffordu]

8. yep. lol

[gabeana]

9. Hillary problem is if she loses these 2

SD will flock to Obama and end this primary

[abbyg8r]

11. They will never go away. They will throw a banana peal

in front of Obama on his way to the Inauguration in January.

[bhikkhu]

15. Donations dry up.

Campaigns can't run for long on no funds, and funds are hard for a losing campaign to get.

I think the fundraising shot in the arm Hillary just got is the last one she can hope for.

[Hippo_Tron]

22. When you're a Clinton, campaigns can go on without money

Anybody else as bankrupt as Clinton is would've been out by now. They have a machine and name recognition. They are also personally very wealthy.

[jackson_dem]

28. That assumes she won't win again

She will probably win IN and then win in blowouts in WV and KY...She may even take Oregon.

[Frank Booth]

37. There's no way in hell she's taking Oregon. It's kind of like Wisconsin, but more liberal.

I still think she'll win Indiana, though.

[SoxFan]

47. It's Vermont with a really bad basketball team

[Frank Booth]

51. The Blazers? With Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden (assuming he recovers)

they've got a bright future.

And OSU's going to be kicking ass, assuming Michelle's brother is as talented as the rest of the family.

[Blue_Roses]

57. Oregon?

:rofl: dream on...

[hogwyld]

30. But she just raised 10 million in ONE day

That's like 300 MILLION per month!!!

[jackson_dem]

39. Money alone can't buy votes. Didn't $16 million in 6 weeks Mitt Obama teach you that?

[bhikkhu]

42. Turned out to be 2.9 Million...or so....

[Tesha]

59. Obluteration!!!

[BlooInBloo]

12. No bump at all? Weird.

[MadBadger]

13. Wow, Obama picked up four points

Within the MOE of course, but picking up four points in a month still after losing PA is good.

[bigwillq]

14. I hope so.

I want a nominee. I want to start to kick repuke ass.

[peoli]

17. Since Indiana has a larger % of White People than Penn, can we end the race bullshit if he wins?

[jackson_dem]

21. One state does not erase a trend that has held in almost all of 43 states

Although as a practical matter the race talk will vanish if he wins IN. If he loses IN, even if narrowly (even under this poll he is losing whites 53-42), it will subside but be reignited when he gets blown out in WV the following week. He will also struggle to get to 40% of the white vote in NC on the same day as IN. There are very few states where Obama has won the white vote. The reason he turns a 11 point deficit among IN whites to a 1 point overall lead is a massive 83-14 lead among blacks. That does nothing to prove that he can win white votes.

[peoli]

23. so your fear is that Hillarys democratic white voters will turn republican in the fall?

[jackson_dem]

25. My fear is the Reagan Democrats will do what they did in 1980 and 1984

There is a reason they are called "Reagan Democrats"...

[peoli]

27. McCain is not Reagan. Reagan Democrats are not McCain Democrats

[jackson_dem]

29. McSame 2008 starts out with more crossover appeal than Reagan 1980

Obama is not Carter nor is he Mondale. They didn't lose the blue-collar white vote by 44 in Ohio and 40 in Pennsylvania did they?

[peoli]

34. We arent in 1980 anymore.

So, you have to have some newness in your thinking.

[jackson_dem]

38. Those who don't learn from our history...

[peoli]

44. This isnt about learning from history this is about a different moment in history.

You just cant equate Reagan = McCain and Obama = Carter/Mondale. Its not that simple. I think your a deeper thinker than that but for some reason you are letting yourself be blinded.

[jackson_dem]

54. I don't think he will be another Carter or Mondale

I just wouldn't be surprised if he is. Mondale lost 24% of Democrats. I would not be shocked if Obama lost about 20%, although I don't expect it. If I had to predict right now I would say he would perform like Dukakis did, winning 45-47% of the popular vote and losing the electoral college badly.

Reagan is an example of how many defections can occur. Keep in mind even Bush won 11% of Dems both times and Dole won 10% of Dems in 1996. 1996 is probably the only time since 1964 that there were more rethug defections (13%) than Dem defections. Fortunately Dems always have an advantage in party id and that makes up for it sometimes.

[Independent-Voter]

60. White poor, white, low-educated folks in WV and KY are now what the Dems are supposed to emulate

Good god ya'll need to get your shit together, and I mean that in the nicest way possible. I'd really like to vote for Obama again in the fall, and we're sure as hell not voting for that other shrew still clawing through the primaries. Not voting for McCain either, so don't even bother going there.

[mikekohr]

31. No!, He Only Wins States With Huge African American Populations, Like Iowa and Idaho

and Wisconsin, and Wyoming, and Vermont, and Maine and Washington, and Nebraska, and Minnesota, and Colorado, and Kansas, and Vermont, and North Dakota and Alaska.

mike kohr

[jackson_dem]

36. He loses the non-black vote by 13-14% nationally no matter how many caucuses Obamites cherry pick

And since he began receiving some scrutiny he has been losing whites by 20+ and keeps losing Latinos 2:1 (Texas, Latino wards in Philly). These are facts, Wisconsin and Vermont are exceptions (Jesse Jackson won Vermont and Alaska too.). There are also zero caucuses in the general election. How many primaries has he won the non-black vote in? Wisconsin, Virginia, and Vermont. There are three off the top of my head. How many more out of almost 30 primaries?

[Frank Booth]

41. Honestly, I think the only person more obsessed with race than you is Clarence Thomas.

In fact, maybe you are Clarence Thomas in real life. :wow:

It's pathological. It's unhealthy. You need to just let go for a little while.

[mikekohr]

55. Obama Will Win Oregon Big

and win or finish close in Indiana, two upcoming primaries, and that's just off the top of my head.

mike kohr

p.s.
What "jackson" are you affliating with, Jesse, Scoop, or Andrew?

[jackson_dem]

18. Faulty sample? It has 18-29 year olds as 22% of voters and O wins them 66-33

That is very high. They were 12% in PA, 16% in OH. They also may be underestimating seniors, who favor Clinton 59-35.

At least this means Obama can't play the "I lost but I was expected to lose" card in IN since the last three polls have shown dead heats.

[malik flavors]

24. So if Hillary loses N.C. she shouldn't have any excuses? Despite expectations?

Good to hear that from you. I look forward to you NOT using that argument.

[Frank Booth]

43. Pennsylvania's the 5th oldest state, Ohio 17th.

Indiana is #39.

[Cosmocat]

58. BINGO ... and, for the LOVE OF GOD ..

Age is the one demographic he has the most problems with, for a variety of reasons, and will exasperated in facing an ancient opponent like McCain ...

All these "Reagan Democrats" are "the republican party has never done anything for the working man" types ... They are going with Hillary because of the Clinton brand ... Take that name off the ballot, they break D ...

There is an inherent advancing of the ideal of a strong "racism" aspect in this this meme ...

That is a factor, but not THE factor ...

And, for the LOVE OF GOD, would people PLEASE stop advancing the "Reagan Democrat" meme !!! It is a way the republicans and and the MSM can actively advance the agenda of attacking the democratic coalition ...

[MattBaggins]

45. That's a tough card to play.

Does Hillary even have any left in her deck?

[Gore1FL]

19. within MOE, but well outside any use to HRC

if this holds and NC holds, maybe reality will sink into her campaign. 187 delegates between NC and IN off the table, and Obama will pick up a few in NC--maybe even enough to match Hillary's gains in PA--

That means in 3 contest worth 345 delegates, the race will have remained static.

[jackson_dem]

26. This is great news. Obama can't use the "I was x points behind" excuse when he loses IN

The last three polls have shown it very close and Obama himself is on record calling it the tiebreaker between PA/NC. If he loses by 10 here after spending a mountain of cash he will have absolutely no excuse this time. That is change we can believe in. :thumbsup:

[Gore1FL]

32. but ultimately that change is this:

Hillary lands about 140 delegates behind with the need to win every remaining contest by well over 70% and still 1/2 of the Super delegates.

She can't afford even 10% wins now. She has to start winning by 30-40%.

This just makes it worse.

[jackson_dem]

35. All that assumes FL and MI are not seated

You are also looked at the number she would need to reach 2,025. That figure is about 9% higher than what she would need from the supers to deny Obama nomination on the first ballot. Once that happens all bets are off. You can make scenarios, including the supers, here http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

I did one where she cuts the delegate lead to about 110 and takes 63% of supers to take it to the second ballot. This was without Florida and Michigan. With Florida alone she nets 38 delegates if it is counted fully, 19 if half of the delegate is seated. That closes the delegate gap and also changes the magic number needed to win, which gives her more breathing room with the supers. 63% is doable though tough, something like 56% would be even more so. All this assumes she performs well in the remaining states. If she doesn't then the discussion is moot and she will probably quit anyway. Keep in mind 5/6 is not about her gaining pledged delegates. It is about keeping momentum and casting more doubts about Obama's electability. Even if she wins Indiana by a couple points if she does so by beating Obama by double digits among whites that will keep those doubts alive. Ideally she would net a few from winning IN and keeping NC very close but realistically the best she can hope for is canceling the two out. Where she has to make a delegate move is WV and KY. If she wins both 65-35, which is possible, she would gain 25 delegates from those two states. Puerto Rico is another place where she needs to net 10 delegates or so. Montana and South Dakota are so small it would take 64% to net even four delegates so they won't have any real impact on the delegate race. Oregon is a wild card. She has to at least not lose by double digits there. If all this happens with a 10 point win in IN she would cut the current delegate lead to about 110 and also win a lot of supers if she can take the popular vote lead because Obama losing IN and getting blown out in WV and KY would complete the case against his electability.

[quantass]

40. Dude, did u read what you just wrote? If i was a Hillbot i'd be melancholy..u aren't helping

You have an insane amount of "If's and maybes"....thankfully the msm is reminding people again that this delegate race is finished and she is done.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x122816

[madrchsod]

49. florida and michigan are not going to count.....

[Gore1FL]

52. There is no indication they will be seated, at least for the first vote

The supers are not going to deny Obama a win. There won't be enough of them not supporting him to do so.

I am sorry about that for you. I know denial is a tough stage of grief. Perhaps should be easier on you and stop pointing out facts.

[Cirque du So-What]

20. Proud to give the 5th rec

I want the idiocy to come to a screeching halt on 6 May!

[Zachstar]

33. A good first step! If Obama keeps up the good work he may be able to win there!

Indiana is in PLAY!!

[madrchsod]

48. the 9 counties in the state of illinois that obama lost in 2004

were on the border Indiana border. the rest of the counties voted for obama over keyes while kerry lost most of the solid republican counties.

obama should do well in indiana. i`d say it`s a toss-up with hillary gaining little to overcome his lead.

[MadBadger]

50. To overcome his 1 point lead? The poll says this is tied.

[madrchsod]

53. margin of error...

i`ll be very happy if he takes indiana

[meow mix]

56. its a Surge!

woot

[Phoonzang]

61. Eh, just wait for the inevitable scandal

manufactured by the MSM. They'll probably pull it out late next week.