Cheer up, Democrats! (TNR)

[scheming daemons]

It's all over but the shouting. Even though the Democratic Convention is still four months away and the presidential election is more than six months off, Barack Obama might as well admit that John McCain will beat him so squarely that he might as well start working on his concession speech. At least that's what you'd assume if you've been reading the latest musings of the Washington commentariat, which have only amplified in the wake of Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania. In the past month, articles proclaiming that Obama's campaign is doomed have been proliferating on websites and editorial pages. And it's not just GOP frontmen like George Will and Robert Novak who are making the argument that Obama's candidacy is seriously, perhaps fatally, flawed. Recently, some prominent progressives including TNR's John Judis have joined the chorus of Obama general-election skeptics.

According to the new conventional wisdom, Barack Obama has been badly damaged by Hillary Clinton's continuing attacks and by his own personal baggage and mistakes, ranging from his relationship with his controversial former minister, Jeremiah Wright, to his highly publicized comments about bitter small town voters who cling to their guns and religion. And while Obama has been trying to respond to a barrage of media criticism and Clinton attack ads, John McCain has been able to shift into general election mode--joining in the attacks on Obama, while shoring up his moderate image to prepare for November.

There's no question that the past few weeks have been rough on Obama. The Clinton campaign has hit him with everything including the kitchen sink in an effort to throw his campaign off stride and yes, he has made some mistakes. Some of this was inevitable, of course. As a relative newcomer to the national political scene, Obama was bound to face increased media scrutiny once he became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. But all of the hand-wringing on the part of liberal pundits ignores one key fact: Obama has come through this series of controversies relatively unscathed. His favorable ratings have come down to earth, but they're still higher than Hillary Clinton's and, according to some recent polls, John McCain's. And he's still leading Clinton among Democratic voters and running even or slightly ahead of McCain in most recent surveys of general election voters.

As Jonathan Cohn recently pointed out, the fact that Obama is running even or slightly ahead of McCain in the polls after enduring weeks of relentless pounding from Hillary Clinton is itself rather remarkable and speaks to the underlying realities of the 2008 election. And once the Democratic nomination is settled and the party unites behind its nominee, those realities should become readily apparent, even to the Washington pundits.

Full article:

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=75f776fe-3f70-4893-9a2e-e5a557d761ee

[scheming daemons]

1. Wow... no discussion? Ah well.... How about THIS article

Dems' suspense may be unnecessary

The torrent of speculation about the end game of the Democratic nomination contest is creating a false sense of suspense – and wasting a lot of time of the multitudes who are anxious to know how this contest is going to turn out.

Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that the Pennsylvania primary must have shaken superdelegates planning to support Barack Obama, causing them to rethink their position, key Democrats on Capitol Hill are unbudged.

“I don’t think anyone’s shaken,” a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.

Essentially, they are three:

(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.

(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, “The superdelegates are not going to switch their voter and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations.” Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.

(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats.

Full article at:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9862.html

[Adelante]

5. I think very highly of Elizabeth Drew

She is no media whore.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Yep. Cynics are a choir singing a bunch of nonsense

just Like Obama warned us.

You are correct!

[Ganja Ninja]

3. It's over and Hillary should admit it.

Hillary can't win. She won't get the primary delegates she needs and the super-delegates can't turn it for her. Besides it looks like the super-delegates are going to go Obama's way.

Even if they weren't already going to Obama I doubt the super-delegates will be willing to write off the black vote in November. That is what they would be doing if they are the deciding factor and turn the nomination over to Hillary. It would not only give the GOP the presidency in November but it would hurt some of those same super-delegates that are facing re-election. They won't do it. Hillary needs to understand that and bow out.

[truebrit71]

4. Funnily enough since Tuseday night I have been feeling quite a bit more relaxed...

...and less stressed out about things. PA was the last best shot Hillary had and as expected she blew it.

Now we have to run out the clock and get focused on the REAL enemy John McLame...

(Of course a double win on May 6th would be the icing on the cake!)