This is my weekly newspaper column, published today. Also available online at:
http://www.cumberlink.com/articles/2008/04/25/opinion/columns/rich_lewis/doc4811edc6da97b648228914.txtby the way, my paper is a small, local paper (16K circ) in heavily Republican southcentral PA.
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‘Dream ticket’ coming, trust me
By Rich Lewis, Sentinel Columnist, April 25, 2008
Pennsylvanians must love drama, because they did exactly what they needed to do on Tuesday to keep the Democratic primary balanced on a razor’s edge of uncertainty.
Right down to the decimal points.
Most observers declared that Hillary Clinton needed a “double-digit” victory to stay in the race.
Did she get it? Well, that’s the beauty of the numbers — you can say “yes” or “no” to suit your taste.
The Associated Press shows Clinton with 1,260,060 votes or 54.7 percent of the total. Obama got 1,045,148 votes or 45.3 percent.
The Clinton camp rounds 54.7 up to 55, and 45.3 down to 45.
Voila! A 10-point, double-digit victory.
But hold on, says the Obama camp. The difference is 9.4 percent, a “single-digit” that rounds down to 9.
Voila! No double-digit victory.
Honestly, this quarrel is actually raging on news outlets and Internet discussion boards. For example, National Public Radio posted this item on its Web site yesterday afternoon:
“It’s a little thing, a single percentage point, but when such a big deal has been made about a double-digit victory for Sen. Hillary Clinton, it has some significance. For most of the morning, the media... have been referring to Clinton’s 10-point victory in Pennsylvania, citing a 55 percent to 45 percent vote total. But that’s actually not correct.”
Which drew an avalanche of comments including:
• “There is a lot of difference between the number 9 and the number 10.”
• “”The method (used to get 55-45) is perfectly valid.”
• “Pretty ridiculous to spend all this time arguing over how to round numbers....”
Yes, yes and emphatically yes.
But round and round we go and onward to Indiana.
Obama continues to be the “winner” who cannot claim victory and Clinton, like the Glenn Close character in “Fatal Attraction,” keeps popping up from the bathtub alive after everyone assumes she’s dead.
Which is why I am now convinced that Obama will be the nominee and Clinton will be his running mate.
Just about everyone has dismissed this as impossible. They say that Clinton won’t settle for the second spot; that Obama’s supporters would never stand for it; that she has attacked Obama too much to become his partner.
Baloney, baloney and emphatically baloney.
It doesn’t matter what Obama or Clinton “want” — the leaders of the Democratic party will force the deal, because they recognize the dangers of the present impasse and the potential power of a “unity ticket.” They do not want this dragged to the convention.
And exit polls are very clear: A scary percentage of both Clinton and Obama supporters say they will vote for John McCain or not vote at all if their favorite is not the nominee. Putting Clinton on the ticket will almost certainly pacify her supporters, especially those who feel strongly that it’s time for a woman to crack the political glass ceiling.
Clinton will accept, because a good shot at becoming the first female vice-president in history beats the daylights out of being a senator from New York.
The Obama supporters will scream for a few days and then calm down. What else are they going to do? Not vote for Obama?
So the only serious question is whether Clinton can credibly campaign alongside Obama after she has spent months attacking his readiness for office, electability and patriotism.
Please. This is politics, where the bitterest of enemies on Monday are best buddies on Tuesday if it serves their interests. It happens all the time. The 2000 Republican primary between George Bush and John McCain was one of the filthiest ever. Bush won the South Carolina primary after his supporters claimed that McCain was a homosexual and had an illegitimate black child (quite a pair of accusations), and McCain condemned Bush as being just like Bill Clinton.
But now the most famous picture of McCain is the one where he is bear-hugging Bush and leaning his head on the president’s chest.
The speech that Clinton will use to bury her attacks on Obama is already written and sitting in a desk drawer:
“For six months, I fought as hard as I know how to find a weakness in Senator Obama. I tested him at every level, raised every challenge that he will face in November and in the Oval Office. And he passed every test, met every challenge. I said, ‘Senator, show me.” And he did. And now I am convinced and you should be convinced that he is ready to lead this country back to greatness blah blah blah....”
Piece of cake.
He, on the other hand, has been scrupulously polite to Clinton and could give her that hug without backtracking at all.
And the fact is the two lock together politically like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle.
There are no significant differences in their positions on the big three issues of the day — the economy, the war in Iraq and the need for change in Washington.
The only difference is that each appeals to a different constituency based on race, sex, style, experience and other intangibles. Conflicting policy positions are hard to reconcile — but personal characteristics are not. Each would legitimize the other.
So that’s my prediction — Obama/Clinton.
It’s not a certainty — but I’d say the chances are... well... in the double digits.
Rich Lewis’ e-mail address is: rlcolumn@comcast.net.
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