Report on How I did projecting PA counties based on demographic cutoffs

[usregimechange]

After going 100% (40 for 40 in projecting Mississippi counties based on demographics) I attempted to do the same in PA. I projected a total of 31 counties and got 28 of them correct, 90% accuracy.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

If you are interested in my other projections of upcoming states here they are with the projection graphic:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5303475


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5219177


http://upload.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5377211&mesg_id=5377211

[cliffordu]

1. RE: Lane county in Oregon -

Eugene is the largest city in the county and I THINK it's Obama territory - or according to my friends it is....

[sandnsea]

2. It is

We've had this discussion before.

[usregimechange]

7. Yeah I took a beating on that state! Hillary isn't much liked out there

[usregimechange]

3. I agree, it will likely go to him, just didn't meet the cutoffs

[sandnsea]

8. Here's why

The people in the west who you would typically think would vote Hillary, hate her. They are younger, they aren't part of the union manufacturing base, they aren't Catholic. I don't know what makes the two groups of "working" Dems think so differently, but they do. We also have liberal elderly people from Marin here in Florence, so even though they're old, they aren't the same kind of old people as in PA. And we're getting more and more liberal retirees in the last 5 years. The entire northwestern corner of the state should probably go Obama, from Lane County on up.

[Beregond2]

9. Yes, Lane

will go for Obama for sure.

Blue collar workers out here don't have all that much loyalty to the Clintons. They saw too many of their jobs go overseas during those years. Of course, that was true in PA too...I have no explanation for PA except racism, maybe.

[usregimechange]

17. You right, older folks are not the same in the central midwest as they are out west or even

the upper midwest

[Frank Booth]

19. That's true. I don't know if I'm allowed to say this or not, but poor white people

in the west are not the same as poor white people in the midwest, east and south. Anti-black sentiment isn't as pervasive in the west. (I also think the extent that poor whites in the midwest, east and south won't vote for Obama has been exaggerated. Almost all that would vote for HRC in the GE would vote for Obama. Most that won't vote for Obama would vote for McCain in the GE against HRC anyway.)

In the mountain and Pacific areas, Obama has been winning working class whites. I grew up in a very rural part of the west, and I know that Obama had a lot more support in my hometown than Hillary did. So the demographic trends in Pennsylvania and Ohio don't apply to places like Oregon.

[gateley]

4. What are the light blue/grey ones?

My county in NC is in that category.

[usregimechange]

5. Counties that I couldn't call for either that may go either way...

[gateley]

6. Thanks!! nt

[Aloha Spirit]

10. Wow, nice job... would love to see someone use that NYtimes decision tree for upcoming states. nt

[usregimechange]

12. Basically what I did but do you have a link to it?

[Aloha Spirit]

13. this is where i first saw it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5664083

[usregimechange]

25. Thanks, may be able to use...

[Scurrilous]

11. K & R

:thumbsup:

[RBInMaine]

14. Please tell me if you agree with these predictions on the final contests:

NC - Obama wins by 5-10 pts. Maybe by 12 or 13 on the high end.
Guam - It's a caucus. Obama wins by 5-10.
IN - Toughest one to call, but if I had to bet now I'd say Hillary by 5 or less.
WV - Hillary country. She wins by 10-15.
KY - Same as WV. Hillary by 10-15.
Oregon - ObamaLand He wins by 5-10.
Montana - Obama favored again by 5-10.
S. Dakota - Obama again by 5-10.
Pueto Rico - HillLand - She wins by about 10.

There is a deal by early July at the latest to seat MI and FL delegates either by 50-50 split or something close to that. Perhaps most 50-50 and some proportional. Maybe MI entirely 50-50 and
FL figures a way to give Hillary a few more since she did win the popular vote. (FL is different because Obama wasn't even on the ballot.)

What say you??

[usregimechange]

15. I haven't studied WV or KY yet but I think the NC projections you listed are conservative

I think he takes it by 15 or so.

[RBInMaine]

26. Well, I try to lean conservative. What do you think on the others?

[usregimechange]

27. The others look accurate but I haven't looked close at the races that are not upcoming

[Upton]

16. You do a great job

Obama in NC and Ore. for sure, right?

[usregimechange]

20. No doubt about it and I think this state will be in play in the general

[hogwyld]

18. That Indiana map is scary!

Obama's only favored in 5 counties? According to your map, Hilly should have a 15 - 20% win there. My God, she's leading counties 8-1. That's really depressing. As for Oregon, I live in Yamhill county, and do think that Obama will carry it easily.

[Alexander]

21. Those 5 counties have most of Indiana's population. Obama won Missouri with only 6 counties.

Cheer up.

[usregimechange]

24. MO was very neat to see. STLC turnout was amazing for a primary!

[usregimechange]

23. Not necessarily, Obama has some highly populated counties.

but I think this is a tough state for him. Not quite as tough as PA though

[hogwyld]

28. But aren't the delegates allocated by county votes?

I could be wrong on that though.

[WillyT]

22. Excellent Work !!! - Thank You !!! - K & R !!!

:bounce::yourock::bounce:

:kick: