DNC To Assess Challenges (FL & MI) On 5/31- Marc Ambinder (Updated)

[WillyT]

<snip>

The DNC will convene its rules and bylaws committee on the last day of May to consider two challenges, that, if successful, could change the delegate math just as the primary season is about to close. But the date of the meeting may be too late for Hillary Clinton, something her campaign is bound to notice.

TO: DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Members

FROM: Alexis Herman & Jim Roosevelt, Jr., Co-Chairs

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC)

SUBJECT: Meeting Announcement–May 31, 2008

DATE: April 25, 2008

Realizing that members have very busy schedules, we wanted to notify you as soon as possible that the RBC will meet on Saturday, May 31, 2008 in Washington, D.C. We are asking members to arrive on Friday, May 30, 2008 in time for a private informal dinner with us. While we expect the RBC meeting to last most of the day on Saturday, we are asking members not to make their departure plans until Sunday.

The main item of business on the Committee’s agenda will be the consideration of two pending challenges.

We hope you are able to attend this very important RBC meeting. Further information, including meeting agenda and meeting logistics, will be forwarded to you in the near future.

Please note that this is an official meeting of the RBC. Therefore, we would like to remind members of the attendance requirement established in the Bylaws (Article Two, Section 10.(g)). Members who miss three consecutive RBC meetings are deemed to have resigned from the Committee. Registering a proxy, while important for establishing a quorum and assuring your vote is represented, does not count for the purpose of attendance at a meeting.

<snip>

Link: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/the_dnc_will_convene_its.php

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And...

<snip>

TO: DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Members

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC)

SUBJECT: Meeting Announcement--May 31, 2008

Marc Ambinder at theAtlantic.com reports that the rules and bylaws committee of the Democratic National Committee will meet on May 31st to hear two challenges (from Michigan and Florida) that "could change the delegate math just as the primary season is about to close."

But as Ambinder notes, the meeting -- coming so late in May -- could be too late for Clinton.

So what's all this fuss about Delegate Counts ? by Richard Owl Mirror

Folks, barring an absolute meltdown of the process and Sen Obama's campaign, it is a mathamatical certainty that Sen Clinton can not gain enough delegates to win the nomination according to the DNC rules. The only possibility for a successful nomination of Sen Hillary Clinton is if the Democratic National Committee dismisses it's Rules and Bylaws entirely for her benefit. If that occurs, the Democrat Party will cease being relevant in American politics.

<snip>

Link: http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977332439&grpId=3659174697244816&nav=Groupspace

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And last...

<snip>

As of today, April 23, 2008 the Democrat candidate counts are as follows:
1,719 Obama 1,586 Clinton


1,487 Pledged:

1,331 Pledged:
232 Superdels: 255 Superdels:

Either Candidate needs a minimum of 2025 delegates to win the nomination.

Now if one of the candidates were to win every remaining primary and obtain every superdelegate available the total would be 503 delegates.

That means Sen Barack Obama would have 2222 delegates

If Sen Hillary Clinton were to garner all remaining delegates, she would have 2089

Hillary Clinton has a cushion of 64 delegates and Barack Obama has a cushion of 197.

The breakdown is 95 superdelegates and 408 pledged delegates.

If Hillary garnered ALL pledged delegates and NO superdelegates, she would have 1994.

If Obama garnered ALL pledged delegates and NO superdelegates, he would have 2127

If Obama obtained NO pledged delegates and ALL superdelegates, he would have 1814

That would mean Obama would need all 95 superdelegates and 211 out of the 408 available

Right now, Hillary Clinton needs 439 delegates, regardless of where they come from. That's 439 out of 503 available. Something tells me that Barack Obama is going to gain at least 64 delegates from the remaining contests between May 3rd and June 3rd.

May 3
Guam caucuses-------------- 4 (5) total = 9

May 6
Indiana primary------------ 72 (13) total = 85
North Carolina primary-- 115 (19) total = 134

May 13
West Virginia primary---- 28 (11) total = 39

May 20
Kentucky primary--------- 51 (9) total = 60
Oregon primary----------- 52 (13) total = 65

June 1
Puerto Rico primary------- 55 (8) total = 63

June 3
Montana primary---------- 16 (9) total = 25
South Dakota primary---- 15 (8) total = 23

{first number are pledged delegates}
{second number in ( ) is the number of superdelegates}

Clinton told supporters in her victory speech in Pennsylvania that "the tide has turned."

~@~

I don't understand how she believes she can win without altering the rules.

<snip>

Link: http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977330832

THAT... is gonna be one interesting meeting!!!

:shrug:

[DJ13]

1. Thats gotta burn the Clintons no end

They wanted a resolution to somehow count those states, and the party says fine we'll do it after it will be obvious who our nominee will be (even to the Clinton supporters).

Ouch.

[WillyT]

2. Yep... What Did Harry Reid Say ???

"Things are being done."

I guess so.

:shrug:

[WillyT]

3. Kick !!!

:kick:

[WillyT]

4. More With Greater Detail: Party Leaders To Hear Florida, Michigan Delegate Challenges

<snip>

WASHINGTON — A plan to award half-delegates for the disputed Michigan and Florida Democratic presidential primaries will get a hearing before party leaders.

The co-chairs of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws committee sent members a memo Friday announcing a meeting May 31 to consider the idea.

The committee stripped Michigan and Florida of their national convention delegates because they held primaries too early. DNC members in Michigan and Florida have filed challenges to restore the delegates.

Under the challenges, all superdelegates from both states would get to vote. The pledged delegates would only count for half votes.

Hillary Rodham Clinton won both contests and has been pushing for the delegates to be seated.

Her rival Barack Obama has said it isn't fair to award delegates based on the votes because all the candidates agreed to boycott the contests and his name wasn't on Michigan's ballot. Most of the Democratic candidates had their names removed, but Clinton left hers on. Forty percent of Michigan voters chose "uncommitted" rather than vote for Clinton.

Obama's supporters have suggested splitting the delegates evenly would be a fair way to handle it, since all sides want to see delegates from the two important swing states participate in the convention.

Both states, knowing the potential penalty, held their primaries earlier than party rules allowed to try have more influence in the nominating process that long has been dominated by early voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Few figured the campaign would last as long as it has, and now that Clinton and Obama are so close in the delegate race, both states want to help choose the nominee.

Michigan lost 128 pledged delegates and 28 superdelegates, for a total of 156.

Florida lost 185 pledged and 25 superdelegates, or a total of 210.

If it were valid, Florida's election would have given Clinton 105 delegates to Obama's 67. Michigan's would have given Clinton 73 delegates, while 55 were uncommitted. That means awarding half-delegates would give Clinton 89 more delegates and Obama 33.5, with 27.5 uncommitted.

The plan would narrow Obama's lead among the pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses. But Clinton still would not catch him in the remaining primaries.

Obama has a 154-delegate lead among pledged delegates.

The challenges were presented by DNC members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, who also are superdelegates because of their positions with the party. Ferguson supports Clinton, Ausman is uncommitted.

Ferguson and Ausman said in telephone interviews that they think half-delegates should be seated based on the outcome of the state's primary elections. That is not spelled out in their challenges and the Rules and Bylaws Committee could determine how many delegates each campaign is awarded.

"I think the allocation should be solely based on the returns on January 29," Ausman said.

Michigan's case is trickier, since Obama didn't get any votes in the state's Jan. 15 primary. Ferguson said all the uncommitted votes should count for Obama.

<snip>

More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/26/party-leaders-to-hear-flo_n_98741.html

:shrug:

[newmajority]

10. The superdelegates from those states should be the ones punished the worst.

People like Jennifer Granholm, Debbie Stabenow, and Bill Nelson are the ones responsible for this fuckup in the first place. Why should they get a full set of superdelegate powers as a reward??

[madfloridian]

5. Meeting May 31....last primary...June 3

That timing indicates there is no hurry to make a decision before the primaries are over.

[WillyT]

6. Ok... So What Is Ambinder Saying Here ???

"But the date of the meeting may be too late for Hillary Clinton, something her campaign is bound to notice."

Is this a distinction without a difference???

:shrug:

[madfloridian]

7. I thought that was an odd remark by Ambinder.

I don't get what he was trying to say.

I think we are saying the same thing...that the numbers are not there for her.

I think the timing of the meeting says a lot. I think the fact that this is the same committee that sanctioned FL and MI, the same committee that has been the victim of their anger....will have an impact.

Hillary will most likely take it on the credentials committee or to court.

[WillyT]

8. It Sounded To Me Like He Thought That Date Was Of Little Use To Hillary's Strategy...

that it would be too late in the game, and that it also delivered a message to the Clinton Camp that because of that late date, they shouldn't count on any resurrection because of FL or MI convention deals.

I think... LOL!!!

:shrug:

[WeDidIt]

11. Eleven Days before that date

Obama will have won more than half the legitimate delegates. Super Delegates will put him over the 2024 threshold before the meeting.

There is no way in hell the DNC will overturn what is already the outcome.

[WillyT]

12. Thank You !!! - Now I Get It !!!

:hi:

[jenmito]

9. I think what Hillary REALLY wanted and needed was for the POPULAR votes of both states to count.

Let them give her all the delegates she can get out of BOTH states. She still won't be happy. And I WILL. :D