If The Convention is Deadlocked

[dtotire]

The delegates should choose another candidate. On another post someone suggested John Edwards. He hasn't dropped out, although he is not campaigning. He is far more electable than Hillary or Obama. He would win in a landslide. The party is more important than one person. The REpublicans would be unable to smear him. I have sent E-mails to my Senator and Representive asking them to support Edwards if the Convention becomes deadlocked. I am asking all of you to do the same.

[knight_of_the_star]

1. I love your idea

But I will have to forewarn you, expect to be flamed to a crisp.

[LakeSamish706]

2. Why should Barack be punished because Hillary can't see the writing on the wall?

I'm not flaming, I am asking a question... Why should either Barack or his supporters be punished because Hillary Clinton refuses to understand that there is no way she can win without stealing the nomination?

[NJSecularist]

40. Nobody would be stealing the nomination.

Neither candidate has the 2024 pledged delegates neccesary to win the nomination.

[WeDidIt]

3. The convention won't be deadlocked

This race will be over on May 20.

Count on it.

[John Q. Citizen]

10. I agree the convention won't be deadlocked. However, I think the race will be over on June 3rd.

If it's sooner, that's OK by me.

In fact the race is already over. But I'm talking about universally accepted as over.

[WeDidIt]

13. May 20, guaranteed.

On May 20, Obama will exceed 1627 pledged delegates, guaranteeing only Barack Obama will have a majority of the pledged delegates.

The super delegates will overwhelmingly endorse him after that. He may even reach 2024 on that very day with Super Delegates included.

HE will then be touted as the presumptive nominee.

There is no going back after that.

[helderheid]

34. agreed

[Alexander]

4. Why would the SDs choose the candidate who came in third in the primaries?

The nomination is Obama's. He's only 300 delegates away from winning. And he'll get 300 by August, no problem.

Edit: Apparently I have a problem with spelling the word "problem".

[Yurovsky]

7. Exactly ... why not Joe Biden or Bill Richardson?

Of course, I'd vote for Dennis Kucinich ... along with the other 1% of Americans who think being right is more important than being popular.

[Alexander]

19. If it's deadlocked, Gore/Obama is the only ticket that will win. I guarantee it.

If the DNC decides Obama's not going to get the nomination, the only thing that's going to placate most of his supporters is by putting him in the VP slot and nominate Gore as the presidential nominee.

While I'd love for that to happen, it's highly unlikely. Obama only needs 300 delegates, most of which he'll get in the primaries alone.

[dansolo]

35. If they won't vote for Obama, picking someone else won't make a difference

At this point, it is all about Hillary. If her supporters are truly angry enough that they would not vote for the Democratic nominee if it is not Hillary, then they won't vote for Gore (or Edwards) either, unless the reason they aren't voting for Obama is because of his race. Also, picking a white man, even one as popular as Gore, when Obama finishes the primary in the lead, isn't going to change the anger that the African-American community would feel.

Anyway, it doesn't matter, because there is no way the convention will be deadlocked. Obama will reach the necessary number of delegates before the convention.

[demo dutch]

5. If convention is deadlocked, we should all go home and hide for the next 4 yrs

because we will definately lose the GE. As it stands right now, it's iffy!

[John Q. Citizen]

14. I agree with your first point. I'm a lot more optimistic on your second point than you are.

[RichardRay]

6. Can it get truly deadlocked?

If everybody (including SD's) votes for somebody, and only those who are currently pledged to Edwards don't vote for either of the other two?

Hmmmmm.....

[WeDidIt]

8. There is a 0.4% chance it can deadlock.

That goes down lower if some of Edwards six remaining Iowa delegates get allocated to either of the other two candidates today.

[tritsofme]

9. If enough delegates abstain or vote uncommitted on the first ballot

so that neither candidate clinches the 2024 delegates needed for the nomination, we would move on to the second ballot where it is a free for all.

[John Q. Citizen]

16. Of course the same is true for the Repos.

[tritsofme]

25. But obviously a considerably less likely scenario this year.

Even though it is far from likely for Democrats this year as well.

[RichardRay]

18. That's why I specified that everybody votes for somebody... n/t

Anybody who doesn't cast a ballot in the first round shouldn't be allowed to cast one after that, either!

[Liberal Gramma]

20. But why should any delegates abstain or vote uncommitted?

I think all the pledged delegates are committed to their candidates, otherwise they wouldn't have been chosen.

[tritsofme]

26. Its certainly unlikely

I was just responding to a question that asked how we could get to the second ballot in a two candidate race.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

11. Delusion makes the world go 'round.

:*

[cali]

12. um, no thanks. First of all, Edwards did definatively end

his campaign. he technically suspended it in order to continue receiving federal campaign dollars to pay staffers and settle debts, but he dropped out. period. Secondly, it's merely your opinion that he's more electable, not fact, and no, polls taken a fricken' year before the GE are not credible. There's a myriad of effective ways the repukes could frame Edwards. Try ambulance chasing, hedge fund investing, elitest flip flopper pretty boy. I could go on. And he's not proven himself as much of a fighter either. He dropped out after promising his supporters he'd stay in it all the way.

Not only won't I support this loony idea, I'll send email to Senator Leahy asking that he do no such thing. Same with Representative Welch. Not that I think there's much chance of a brokered convention.

[elocs]

15. Despite imaginative speculation, the convention will not be deadlocked.

I support Obama, but both he and Clinton have worked hard for the nominations and millions of people have voted for them. Also, thousands of Democrats have given money to both candidates and have worked for them.

I had decided to support Edwards in Wisconsin, but then he suspended his campaign and that's when I suspended my support of him. It is only your opinion that he would win in a landslide, so I will not be sending any emails to request support for somebody who decided to "suspend" his campaign.

[Smarmie Doofus]

17. It's an interesting possibility.... but not for Edwards.

He ran, he made his case, he finished a distant third. ( I was for him, but I doubt that he'd be electable, especially in the circumstance that you're describing.)

Now, Gore would be another matter. He'd win in a walk if nominated, it seems reasonable to surmise.

I'm thinking, though that Obama, barring a *huge* development between now and Denver, will garner together enough votes to hobble accross the finish line.

What sort of shape he'll be in to take on the GOP remains to be seen.

[cali]

21. it doesn't seem reasonable to surmise that to me.

installing Gore- or anyone else- would set off a firestorm and tear apart the party. He didn't earn a single vote. he didn't put himself out there. I like Gore a lot, but I don't think that's any solution.

[WeDidIt]

22. Agreed, but the race will be over on May 20 anyway

Barack Obama will exceed 50% of all DNC sanctioned pledged delegates on May 20.

It's over at that point.

[StevieM]

23. Well, there will be a press release to that effect, but it won't actually happen. Something tells

me that Montanans, South Dakotans and Puerto Ricans will make up their own minds.

And the DNC is deciding what to do about Fl and MI on May 31 I believe. A 50/50 split is a joke which would make those states meaningless and satisfy noone there--the people of those states will not be spun into believing that what they really want is to send people from their states to a convention in Denver.

This race is going to the convention. Get over it.

Steve

[WeDidIt]

24. The race will not go to the convention

and you need to accept that fact.No matter how much you would like the outcome to be altered, it is already a guaranteed outcome.

Obama will be the nominee and that will happen on May 20. Brack Obama will exceed 50% of the pledged delegates on that day. He will have won and the Super Delegates all realize that.

Florida and Michigan will have absolutely no say in who will be the nominee. That was the price they paid for leapfrogging February 5. They knew the consequences of their actions before hand and they accepted them.

To do otherwise will destroy the Democratic PArty forever.

Hillary Clinton's only chance to win at this point is to gain both 185 super delegates and take 58% of all remaining pledged delegates.

If Obama takes just 40 more Super Delegates and 43 % of the peldged delegates between now and May 20, Hillary Clinton is mathematically eliminated from the race.

That is mathematical fact.

Edited to alter some numbers after recent endorsements that were nnot taken into account in my math.

[StevieM]

33. The May 31 meeting over FL and MI is also a fact. Our inability to carry FL and MI in the GE

if we exclude what they did is another fact, and one that the DNC will not overlook. I'm not saying that she will get all the delegates. I think FL will be cut in half, like the GOP did, and their SDs will be fully restored. And I think MI will probably be a 55/45 split--the election will be viewed as Hillary vs. herself, to see how well she could do--and the size of the pledged delegation will also be cut in half, with SDs fully restored.

I understand your argument. But just because you make an argument that doesn't mean that it will carry the day. And there is no way that I can see your preferred outcome happening. I think cutting FL's PDs in half has already been quietly agreed to, and MI will give BO all the uncommitted. The SDs were be returned in full. But nobody believes that a 50/50 split will happen and not be challenged on the convention floor. And I can't see the DNC letting it come to that.

As for the total delegate count, if either candidate is trailing heading into the convention, they will not drop out. You can't force them to, and attacks on them--even if done through surrogates and done in a "subtle way"--will backfire and divide the party. Neither candidate is dropping out until the convention, nor should they.

Steve

[cali]

36. Obama leads McCain in MI. Hilly? Nope.

And as I understand it, no decision is being made by the DNC that day; it's simply a hearing. And again, Party leaders have made it quite clear that there will not be a brokered convention. SDs aren't stupid, they know a brokered convention spells losing- and just the White House.

[WeDidIt]

41. The race will be over already

Obama will ahve already met the requirements to be the nominee before that hearing ever happens.

There will be no overturning of what has already happened. To do so would destroy the Democratic PArty forever.

And the members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee are fully aware of that. They can also do math. This is why they scheduled the hearing for May 31 and not some date prior to May 20. They gave an additional eleven days to allow the Super Delegates to end it.

[StevieM]

48. You can want that to be true. But that doesn't make it true (eom)

[WeDidIt]

49. It's basic mathematics

Hillary can take every race through May 20 by 15 points and it still wouldn't change the mathematical reality.

Obama will exceed 50% of the pledged delegates on May 20. There is no altering that basic fact.

Between now and then all he needs to go over the top is an additional 58 super delegates out of over 240.

May 20th, this race is over, no matter how much you want to wish it away.

It is mathematical fact. Hillary Clinton will have been mathematically eliminated from any possibility of winning the race by that date. She will be sillier than Huckabee if she attempts to carry on after Obama has already won.

[StevieM]

50. Too bad that the rules of the Democratic Party contradict what you are saying

Obama gets the nomination when he has a majority of all the delegates. And that includes a meeting on May 31 to resolve Michigan and Floridia, a meeting that you cannot wish away. After that meeting, on Friday, comes Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Then the race is over.

The nomination is settled when one candidate or the other had a majority and that majority is confirmed at the convention.

See you in Denver.

[WeDidIt]

51. Beleive whatever you want

that hearing means nothing. There is no way the Rules and Bylaws Committee will overturn what has already happened. If they did, the Democratic PArty would cease to exist.

[cali]

28. a correction or two for you:

One, the DNC is meeting on May 31 but there's been nothing about a decision being issued that day. I believe they'll be hearing various points of view about what should be done. Two: If Obama, as is entirely possible, has the requisite number of SD endorsements by the middle of June, he will be the presumptive nominee, just as McCain is now. That's how it works in both parties. Three: No one is or will be stopping Montanans, South Dakotans or Puerto Ricans from voting. Four: It is very, very unlikely to go to the convention. Put simply, the SDs don't want it to and obviously they have the power to give us a presumptive nominee prior to the convention. Now, Hillary can keep her campaign going, but at that point, she'd simply be a freak side show- and she sure wouldn't win any SD support. Prominent SDs would run like a fox from the hounds and endorse Obama. Frank, Corzine, Boxer, Murray, Cantwell and many others would be gone in the blink of an eye.

Get over it,

Cali

[MannyGoldstein]

27. Edwards Is More 'Electable'?

What's your evidence of that? He got clobbered in 2004 and 2008: what's changed?

[quakerboy]

29. So because one or the other couldn't win

all the states, we should pick someone who won none of the states? I have liked JE for a while now, though I still have strong reservations given his actual senate performance. But your idea is a losing proposition.

The idea leaves everyone feeling cheated. A landslide is hugely debatable. He could very well pick off a significant portion of McCain leaning voters, but would just as likely lose just as many out the other side. The hard core "Hillary because she's a woman" vote would be rather questionable. The excited "youth" vote will not take to any bait and switch, no matter how good the replacement is. Many AA voters will feel just as cheated as the "I want a female president before I die" voters.

All in all, it would certainly change the whole dynamic at the last second. But I think it would be a questionable way to go. You might, maybe win the GE, but I strongly believe it would hurt the party, and I believe the country going forward.

[Hart2008]

30. I may come down to whoever gives the best speech at the convention.

With all of the talk about counting delegates, the more interesting number is the number of delegates needed to vote for neither Obama nor Clinton, but wishing for a new candidate.

In an evenly divided contest, that number may be very small indeed.

With a deadlocked convention and an entire nation watching the suspense of a convention that is not infomercial for a candidate, the person who makes the best speech to the convention, and the nation, could walk out with the nomination.

[cali]

32. have you actually missed Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Van Hollen, Frank

and many other party leaders who have repeatedly said there won't be a deadlocked convention? Do you realize that 2/3 of the SDs have already endorsed? There is a very slim chance of a deadlocked convention. Why? Because the SDs know it's a perfect prescription to LOSE.

[Hart2008]

38. All of whom have one vote each.

The most skeptical group of super delegates is new congressmen/women.

They want a winner, and if they don't think either Clinton or Obama can win, they will vote for someone else.

[cali]

42. Not quite. Dean controls a number of SDs and Pelosi

controls another group. That's just the way it works. It may not be fair, but they wield real power. And new congress critters are loath to go up against the Speaker and the head of the DCCC chair- for obvious reasons. The SDs know recent history. No nominee emerging from the last 3 brokered conventions has won. They've all lost spectacularly. They know that a brokered convention is a complete disaster. That's why it won't happen. I realize you're holding onto some white knight fantasy. let it go.

[Hart2008]

44. If all of the superdelegates are "controlled", then the nomination has already been brokered: 1984

The worst electoral defeat in the nation's history came from a convention that was brokered by superdelegates at the convention.

So let's see...
1972-Nomination decided on first ballot 49 state loss in GE.
1980-Nomination decided on first ballot 44 state loss in GE.
1984-Nomination decided on first ballot 49 state loss in GE.
1988-Nomination decided on first ballot 40 state loss in GE.

The Repukes and Bush are unpopular, and people want change.

The question is either Clinton or Obama the best candidate to not only win the GE, but also have long coattails and bring in a new generation of progressive leadership.

The nominee should be burying McCain, not running neck and neck with him.

No more Mondales and Dukakises please.

We want a winner this year, even if it takes a second ballot to do it.

[cali]

45. look. politics. sausage making. that's reality. and installing

somebody who didn't run and didn't receive a single blessed vote would be very ugly sausage making indeed. Once Obama is the nominee, there's a very good chance that he'll do well against McCain. No one installed at the convention, pissing off milllions and millions of BOTH candidates supporters can win. Period. It's just absurd to think that we'll all fall in line. I certainly won't. Not a fuckin'chance. Edwards, Biden, Dodd, etc FAILED. They just weren't strong candidates. And whatever else he is, Obama is no Dukakis or Mondale. Both good men without a scrap of charisma. Both unable to fight effectively. Obama fights very effectively. That's why he's winning.

And to put it bluntly: tough shit for you. you can't always get what you want, and this is one of those times. Suck it up.

[Hart2008]

47. If the present trend continues, both Obama and Clinton will be damaged goods by the convention.

Clinton has a disturbing negative ratings near 50% and Obama is perceived as inexperienced, and he has gotten damaged by team Clinton's smears.

There is a rift opening in the party. If nominating Clinton or Obama means alienating the others supporters, then a compromise candidate becomes necessary for party unity.

The nominee needs to heal the rift in the party AND attract conservative democrats, independent voters and dissatisfied Republicans in the GE.

These are the people who decide elections, not party activists.

The super delegates are well within their rights to vote against both Clinton and Obama if they feel that either of them have become too damaged to win.

This is about winning, not just making people feel good.

Tough nuggies to you too.

[depakid]

31. My choice would be Gore

if he'd run, that would ensure a landslide in November with huge coattails.

[dana_b]

37. the repubs would have a field day with that!!

They are already laughing but can you imagine if this happened?? no, I think it would be suicide. Those who votedin the primaries/caucuses would be pissed off and the "chosen" candidate wouldn't have a chance in hell.

[terrell9584]

39. Would need to be a more visionary ticket

Like Wesley Clark and Harold Ford Jr.

[cali]

43. bwahaha. please tell me you're kidding.

that ticket might even lose my state.

[LWolf]

46. I agree,

except that I'm open to several other options. I think Gore is the logical choice, but I'd be happy with Edwards. Even better: Gore/Edwards.