Should Obama win IN on May 6, we'll have an official nominee May 7.

[Unsane]

The Supers WILL step in and make their decision. Again, he has to WIN on the 6th.

Gobama. Let's GETTERDUNN.

[rocktivity]

1. If he wins IN or NC and gets 41% of the vote in the other

that will be more than enough to "seal the deal."

:headbang:
rocknation

[Unsane]

2. yep

[book_worm]

3. I agree a landslide in NC and any kind of victory in Indiana will be enough

to make many Super Delegates call Hillary and say, 'It's time to end this.' and if she doesn't to formally endorse Obama.

[StevieM]

34. I actually agree with that. It is a factually correct statement. If Obama can win Indiana

then the race will be over, especially if he has a landslide in NC. Hillary would concede the next day.

But so far he hasn't been able to put her away--and he's had 4 chances. NH, Super Tuesday, TX&OH and Pennsylvania. We'll see how he does on May 6.

Steve

[WeDidIt]

4. May 20

Obama wraps it all up on May 20.

On May 20 he will have exceeded 50% of the pledged delegates.

It will all be over after that.

[Unsane]

5. Why wouldnt the supers just step in on the 7th and push him to 2025?

[WeDidIt]

7. That would require more than 50% of remaining undeclared SDs

to endorse at once.

Not gonna happen. IT would be too humiliating to Hillary Clinton.

By having the Super Delegates come out in dribs and drabs, he'll have Clintont to a point where she is essentially mathematically eliminated from winning by May 6.

She'll have her last hurrah in West Virginia on May 13.

Then on May 20, Obama goes over the top in pledged delegates. He'll be so close to 2024 at that point that only a few more Super Delegates pushes him over the top for the win.

They may even let it go to June 3 just to let every state vote and allow Montana and South Dakota to push him pover the top, which would be putting a cherry on top of the win.

But mathematically, it's over on May 20.

[my3boyz]

10. I want them to humiliate her! They have given her many hints to get out

and she says she is going to the convention. Put Obama over the top and it will be over.

[WeDidIt]

15. They'll put him over the top

just not on May 7 regardless of the outcome.

They don't want to humilate her because she is still a Senator from New York, and will probably remain one for a long time to come.

Look at how Obama is treating her these days. Kid Gloves. It's very important that she be given a way to gracefully bow out.

36. When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
Do not press a desperate foe too hard.

37. Such is the Art of Warfare.

--Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Chapter VII. MANEUVERING

[Unsane]

20. huh? humiliate? the point is to get a nominee, man.

[WeDidIt]

21. No, the point is to win the White House

You do not humiliate a future ally.

[ORDem]

30. Yep, that's exactly right. nt

[sellitman]

6. She will take this to the Convention

Of that I have no doubt.

If she wasn't planning on it she would of left after Texas.

I hope I am wrong but she shows no sign of quiting.

[WeDidIt]

8. No. She won't

Doing that ends her political career for all time.

Doing that would cause her enmity with what have been major political allies within the Democratic Party for decades.

No way does this go to the convention. She's a very intelligent woman. She'll know when it's time to cut her losses.

If I had to guess, the date of her ending it will be determined by the accounts ledger, not any political ambitions.

[wpelb]

9. Don't be so sure

If Sen. Clinton drops out before all the primaries have been held, she'll probably have made some backroom deal to either be on the ticket or to get a leadership position (majority leader or pro tem). I don't know what exactly she'll do, but I have to believe she'll do something.

[WeDidIt]

11. The single most difficult thing for a failed campaign to do is

to retire its debt.

She'll retire her debt before dropping out. They are probably working on schedules to insure that by May 20, she has enough cash to retire all debt and pay herself back for the $5 million.

[cali]

16. let's look at that. Okay. Obama has 2025+ on say, June 4th.

He becomes by party acclamation the presumptive nominee. Say you're right and Hillary refuses to step aside. What happens then? First she loses scores of SDs such as Corzine, Frank, Boxer, Cantwell, Murray and many more. They endorse Obama. Then she gets a private talking to. Then Party leaders start saying things publically like "hillary has run a terrific, spirited campaign but we now have a nominee and it's time to rally around Senator Obama." Do you really think Hillary is willing to risk it all when she has NO chance whatsoever? I don't. She'd become a freak side show. Her husband's legacy would become irrevocable damaged. She wouldn't be able to be re-elected in the Senate. She'd be, in short, a pariah.

[quantass]

12. Most Hillbots i've read including HiiBillary on tv have said that NC and IN would end this if

Obama wins them. Supers will flood Obama on May 7th.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. He's not going to win Indiana: Clinton by 4%

[ORDem]

33. No matter. He doesn't HAVE to win IN, just keep it close. She'll never catch his

pledged delegate lead. There are so few states, and no really big ones anymore. She's on a Quixotic mission. Bill is her ass.

[rug]

14. I thought he was going to be the nominee April 23rd.

[quantass]

23. Mathematically HE IS the Nominee as of April 23rd -- the MSM have made that Clear!

It's all in the delegate count and she blew it on April 23rd when she couldnt win at least 68% of the vote.
This is why Hillary doesnt talk about delegate racing anymore.

[rug]

26. You really have to stop moving the goalposts.

Even in the CFL they don't have wheels.

[Jonathan2000]

17. She's too vested at this point

and its her nature to fight whatever the consequences. I don't think she will drop out until Obama gets a majority of all delegates including Florida and Michigan.

[newmajority]

18. There are no delegates in Florida or Michigan

[Jonathan2000]

19. I know but Hillary wants to believe there are

[East Liberty Denizen]

22. Don't be so sure, Hillary is a fighter

The SD's have a right under party rules to change their minds if they choose right up to the convention.

Hillary thinks she is the best candidate out there, this is probably her last chance at the presidency, as long as she thinks she has a chance I expect her to fight for it.

Once the convention votes, I expect that she will accept the results win or lose.

[tekisui]

24. I can see no motivation for the SD's to go to Hillary.

Barring an Obama indictment, at this point, they would be committing political suicide to go to HIllary, when Obama gets the majority of the PD's.

[quantass]

25. Hillary is also a LIAR -- i find it hard to imagine SDs will side with her now that she pissed off

the Democratic party and their SDs ... she has no chance

[Jonathan2000]

28. Hillary is a fighter

She reminds me of the woman fighting for a parking spot. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-709fE_7YU

[quantass]

27. Hillary == Huckabee

[Igel]

29. Presumptive nominee, maybe.

Official nominee? Not until the national convention.

Even if the vote's pro forma, it's still required to make it official. And it's not entirely pro forma, since things can change.

[Unsane]

31. Oh it'd be official.

chumpling

[sniffa]

32. I have May 8, in the "Obama gear pool"

And I'm going to be right. :bounce: