Obama's KY and WV problem: Out and out racism.

[cali]

Not that there was much doubt about Appalachia being the last staunch bastion of unadulterated old fashioned wonder bread racism, but here you go. Racism: Bad news for Obama, good news for Hill.

From a long, and terrific piece by Markos:

<snip>

George Packer offers some evidence that in Appalachia it's racism:

On Wednesday, I was in Inez, Kentucky, the Appalachian town where L.B.J. declared war on poverty forty-four years ago this month. John McCain was on a tour of "forgotten places"...After speech, I left the county courthouse and crossed the main street to talk to a small group of demonstrators holding signs next to McCain’s campaign bus. J. K. Patrick, a retired state employee from a neighboring county, wore a button on his shirt that said "Hillary: Smart Choice."

"East of Lexington she’ll carry seventy per cent of the primary vote," he said. Kentucky votes on May 20. "She could win the general election in Kentucky." I asked about Obama. "Obama couldn’t win."

Why not?

"Race," Patrick said matter-of-factly. "I’ve talked to people—a woman who was chair of county elections last year, she said she wouldn’t vote for a black man." Patrick said he wouldn’t vote for Obama either.

Why not?

"Race. I really don’t want an African-American as President. Race."
What about race?

"I thought about it. I think he would put too many minorities in positions over the white race. That’s my opinion. After 1964, you saw what the South did." He meant that it went Republican. "Now what caused that? Race. There’s a lot of white people that just wouldn’t vote for a colored person. Especially older people. They know what happened in the sixties. Under thirty—they don’t remember. I do. I was here."

Everyone knows that race is a factor in Obama’s low vote among older whites, though reporters say that no one will admit it personally. In Eastern Kentucky, people (and not just J. K. Patrick) admit it personally, without hesitation or apology. It’s impossible to say how much this has affected the primary or will affect the fall election. For voters like those I met in Inez, the objection to Obama has nothing to do with Reverend Jeremiah Wright or, God knows, Bill Ayers. There’s nothing Obama can do about it. He can’t even mention it.

Many pundits have declared that Obama has a "race problem," or a "working class problem," or more specifically a "white working class" problem. Meng Bomin's map doesn't suggest a racial problem; Obama has done extremely well in many parts of the country that are almost entirely white, including several places with primaries instead of caucuses. According to Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:

I think if you look at -- we have won white voters, particularly white voters under 60, in a lot of states. We've won white men voters in most of the states we've competed in, and, you know, again, if you look at our favorable/unfavorable ratings and the characteristics and the traits with some of these voters that have voted for Senator Clinton in recent primaries, you know they are strong and they are going to be supportive of us in the fall.

Most of the white voters voting for Hillary Clinton will enthusiastically vote for him in the fall. A good chunk of the Clinton vote is women, and there's little to suggest that they would shift from her to McCain instead of voting for the Democratic candidate, as women have been doing for decades. No, Obama doesn't have a racial problem.

It appears that Appalachia has an Obama problem.

If doing well in Appalachia—which has only about 18-20 million of the almost 300 million people who live in America—were necessary for an Obama win, he would be in deep trouble. But there aren't enough people in Appalachia to present a big problem, especially since the region makes up a relatively small part of the population of most of the states it touches. (The Appalachian counties of Pennsylvania are a bit different than the rest of the region, as they are much more Catholic than the rest of Appalachia and more ethnically diverse, with a decent number of Italians, Slavs and Germans mixed in with the most Scots-Irish and descendants of the 18th century immigrants from the English backcountry that dominate the rest of Appalachia. Those counties, in fact, are the only part of Appalachia where Obama did OK, and actually improved on his performance over similar counties in Ohio).

The two big exceptions, however, the two states in which Appalachia dominates, are Kentucky and West Virginia.

Based on the results of the primaries up to now, and for reasons suggested by Packer's interviews, we can see that Obama will not do well in West Virginia or Kentucky. And that's a problem for perceptions, because even if Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana, Clinton and her surrogates are likely to trumpet the West Virginia and Kentucky results as proof that Obama can't win white voters, and offer the results as a rationale for her to stay in the race.

If the discussion were limited to Appalachia, Clinton might have a point about the importance of her relative strength with white voters. But increasingly, in presidential elections, Democrats can't win Kentucky, and West Virginia is also trending strongly Republican. In 1992 Bill Clinton won Kentucky by 3 points, but against Bob Dole he barely hung on for a win of less than one point. Despite winning the popular vote, Al Gore—from neighboring Tennessee—lost Kentucky by 15 points, and Kerry lost it by 20. Frankly, Kentucky is not part of a map that shows a narrow Democratic win. If any Democrat were to win Kentucky, it would be part of a landslide win.

Even West Virginia, once one of the most Democratic states in the country—it voted for Dukakis and was one of the six states won by Jimmy Carter in 1980—is now moving in to Republican territory for Presidential years. It's not as Republican as Kentucky, but like Kentucky it's unlikely to go Democratic regardless of the Democratic nominee, even if it were Clinton.

<snip>

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/26/133958/391/499/503927

[leftofcool]

1. To that list

The rest of the Southern States, both Dakotas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, probably Ohio and Florida. Racism is alive and well in this country, as well as in many Euro countries. It is an ugly truth but a truth all the same.

[cali]

2. Nope. And reading the entire piece would have clued you in a bit

Obama has done very well with white voters in the Dakotas, Kansas and NE. He polls better than hilly against McCain in those states. Pockets of Ohio are in the Appalachia envelope, as are parts of PA and VA, but there is no doubt that the Appalachia region has a heavy concentration of racists. In any case, dems will not win KY or WV in the general and that wouldn't change with Hill as the nominee. And for every racist there's a sexist, or do you hillworlders only claim sexism when you can use it to bludgeon?

[leftofcool]

3. I agree with you on the sexism

but that doesn't change the fact that Obama is going to confront a race problem in the GE. He is not doing well with white voters or blue collar workers overall and sticking your head in the sand about it won't help him. I will be happy to vote for him in the GE if he is the nominee but that doesn't help the race problem in this country no does it?

[JI7]

5. he did well in Iowa

[JoFerret]

22. Iowa is a VERY different state.

very different.

[JI7]

64. yeah, we actually have a chance at winning Iowa nationally unlike Kentucky

[chimpymustgo]

6. This is an irrefutable point. It is also worth noting that you can NOT support Obama

and also NOT be a racist.

Says me - a black woman.

[Captain Hilts]

10. I like 'em both! nt

[woolldog]

57. Yes, it does.

It does help, lefy.

[Toucano]

11. Please try to understand something.

The racism in Appalachia is not the same as the racism in Chicago or Brooklyn.

There are so few non-whites in the region that it is more ignorance than actual racism.

My mother was from the region and didn't meet a black person until she was in her twenties. Yet she never harbored the fear and hatred required to be a racist. She saw the commonality of our lives, not the differences and taught me the same.

The distinction doesn't affect your analysis or the impact on the election. I think Obama is a man who can overcome that type of racism, however.

One note: I don't intend to describe it as some kind of "warm fuzzy racism", but having lived in every region of the country, I don't consider Appalachia "the last bastion" of racism.

[JoFerret]

23. Last bastion?

absolutely not.
A bastion? - yes, in places.

[JCMach1]

17. Big assumptions: You are assuming sexism isn't a problem in those states too

This is an issue that can cut both ways... :(

[WinkyDink]

49. How did you get "you hillworlders only claim sexism" from the post you're replying to?

[CBGLuthier]

54. Every state has too many racists

New York and California included.

Pennsylvania for sure and New Jersey.

Pretending it is limited to a few states is bullshit.

But it doesn't mean Obama can't win.

[JI7]

4. i wonder when Obama becomes President

and the lives of these people improve, we will see a change in their views on race.

[Cali_Democrat]

7. Wow cali, this is depressing. Jeez, talk bout party pooper.

:(

[cali]

8. sorry. I prefer living in the real world

and this is the real world. Racism exists. It's a factor- particularly in the upcoming primaries in KY and WV. What's really amusing in an ugly way is that many hillbots will inevitably cease upon this out and out racism with glee. The vast majority aren't racists but they're OK with it if it helps hilly. Outraged over sexism of course, but racism?

[Ronnie]

61. I would not "cease" (sic) upon anything, especially with glee,

over something so reprehensible. But doesn't this cut both ways? How many times have we heard somebody say (on some TV show like Bill Maher's), "I'm voting for the black dude." And when asked why, they have nothing to say. Is that not racism? Is there another name for it?

I voted for Senator Clinton because she's smart and tough, and, in the words of my son, "I don't think she'll take any crap." Honestly, can you see her if she had been the candidate in 2000 or 2004 not fighting tooth and nail to the very end? She would have emerged bloody, unbowed, and probably the winner. Do you think Senator Obama would do the same, or would Oprah have a TV show about it?

Senator Clinton has been my first choice from the start. Senator Obama has always been my second choice. I admire him very much. But I think he's not yet at her readiness level.

Anyway, racism exists just about everywhere, and, since it's something that's pretty hardwired, there's not a whole lot we can do about it in the short term.

[Captain Hilts]

9. What about GA, SC, VA, MD, ? nt

[indimuse]

12. What about 95% Blacks voting for Barack?? Everywhere!!! What do you call that?

Wilful Blindness...NOT! Very telling!


http://sugarnspice.typepad.com/

What Marks the Silly Season? Obama's Black Support
I mentioned here a while ago that I had to cease all discussions about the election with my cousins, rabid ardent Obama supporters, because they would sometimes get so heated. Spice and I can't talk about it either--same for a host of my other family members and friends. This morning, one of my cousins baited me and I bit and a mini-war of words ensued. One of my cousins stated that she wouldn't vote for Hillary if she is the nominee and that Hillary has shown how dirty she will get to win. I went off. What in the world has Hillary done that's been so dirty? I told my cousins, "Hillary didn't release the Rev. Wright tapes! Hillary didn't release the information about William Ayers! Hillary didn't make him befriend Rezko!" I let them have it. One of my cousins, showing just how ill-informed so many Black voters are said that at no time in history have Republicans been in the White House for 12 years straight.............................................I reminded her about Reagan and GHWB. Twelve years of Republican rule. I told her that if Obama is handed that nomination, she may as well prepare herself for McCain to serve his four years because he will eat Obama alive.

I think that one of the things that we will all have learned after this primary and election season is over, is that we must all be better informed in order to make intelligent decisions where politcs are concerned. Last week, I received an email from Allhiphop.com with the title, "Rappers Get Political; Encourage Youth To Vote". I'm all for that, except the undertone was that these rap stars were going to roll up into Philly and get the youth to vote, thereby crushing Clinton and giving Obama claim to the nomination. Mogul Russell Simmons, who I respect in so many ways--in other ways not so much--had this to say in the article:

"The fact is that young people have more compassion and vision, while the old people have built this mess and don't have the collective faith that they can make a real change. I believe We need the hip hop community to pick this next president. And I have faith that they will. Pennsylvania is where we start to prove that."

So uninformed it's laughable. Apparently, African-Americans only make up 10% of the population in Pennsylvania so there wasn't a snowcone's chance in hell of African-Americans "picking the next president" in PA. Basically, these rubes rappers got in their Hummers and hopped on their charter jets and flew into Philly, not even aware that they just didn't have enough people to "make a real change"...ROTFLMBAO. It's that old silly illusion of real power.

Wake up my brothers and sisters. Voting for Hillary is not about "dissing", "bashing", "tearing down" or "trashing" Obama. It's about making an honest attempt to win back the White House so that this nation can once again breathe a sigh of relief. Besides, fuck you if you still find it necessary to question my loyalty to my people. It is because I feel for the situation that so many are in, the poor and downtrodden of all races, that I want Hillary to win. Obama is a sure thing to lose. Hillary at least has a chance. --SUGAR

[ScarletSniper]

27. Vote for Hillary if you so desire, but don't go tearing down someone that

wants to vote for Obama, young, old or middle aged; black, white, red or green.

No one is required to vote for Hillary...no matter their color.

I won't question your loyalty, we all are entitled to our positions and how we cast our vote.

C'est La Vie.

[GoldieAZ49]

29. "We need the hip hop community to pick this next president"

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

unfreakinbelievable!

[indimuse]

34. I know..

..

[ElsewheresDaughter]

32. exactly what it is

racism

[IsItJustMe]

44. As a white, I have no problem with it. Black folk have a, once in a lifetime, opportunity to

actually vote for someone who represents their values and of the same race. We have had over two hundred years. I believe in inclusion for everybody. It's all good.

[jonestonesusa]

48. Is voting for the candidate of your choice automatically racism?

I don't think so, especially given that most black voters have enthusiastically supported white candidates in many elections. Why is it mainly the choices of black voters that receive so much scrutiny in this election?

Plus - what is your definition of racism?

[JI7]

68. those blacks vote for white candidates also, they voted Kerry over Sharpton

[mmonk]

13. I wasn't counting on WV or Kentucky going democratic.

Ever since neoconservatism and the new power the religious right has, it will be a long time before dems win those two again. Where Obama has a chance would be somewhere like Virgina or somewhere similar to swing states our way.

[Birthmark]

14. So what?

Assume the problem is racism. What of it? Yeah, it sucks and it so last century or the century before. But it's a fact of life. It's not likely that a racist is going to be shamed into voting for Obama, or change their little racist mind. Obama is stuck with it. Just as Clinton is stuck with the woman-haters. It just has to be accepted. There's little use in whining about it.

[cali]

15. how lame. recognizing something is not the same as whining

and only a dunderhead would conflate the two and add the stunningly vapid statement that racism is so last century. amusing though.

[Birthmark]

19. You should turn some of that analysis...

...on yourself. When or if you get any good at it, then take a shot at using it on other people.

Oh, and quit whining.

[cali]

21. snicker

I'll go up against you anytime when it comes to verbal jousting, honey. Anyplace. And I'll certainly stack my analytic abilities up against yours anytime.

[Birthmark]

25. I'm sorry.

Did you say something? Your last post was a bit blustery. Maybe the weather in your head will be better tomorrow.

Btw, are you pleased with your discovery of racism in America? You're the first one, you know. None of the rest of us had ever heard of it until your stunningly insightful post. :rofl:

[goldcanyonaz]

24. So very true, but just try to bring up sexism in regards to Clinton and you will be laughed at.

We are only allowed to discuss racism here. Of course one can not bring up 95% of blacks voting for Obama w/o being called a racist around here either.

[Birthmark]

26. I swear...

...some of Obama's supporters should be called OWAAAHmites! The persistent whining is amusing.

[kentuck]

16. Being from Eastern Kentucky...

There is a lot of truth to this viewpoint. But it is not all. Eastern Kentucky is in a Depression. There is a drug epidemic unlike any other place in the country...People are desperate. They need help. When people are desperate, they look for someone to blame. In this instance, it comes across as racism. I doubt that it is much worse than any other place in the country during normal times. Also, Indiana is the national home base for the KKK. It is not exempt from racism either.

[cali]

18. thanks for the on the ground insight, kentuck

it's always helpful to hear from people who are really familiar with a place. I must take issue though, with your claim that it's not that different from other places. I live in a very poor rural place with a drug problem though not as prevailent as what you have. It's over 99% white here. And yet the Kingdom went for Obama over Clinton strongly. And one more thing, the people Packer interviewed don't just come across as racist, those folks ARE racists. Anyone who says I'd never vote for a black person is clearly a racist.

[kentuck]

20. And KY is very similar to PA in one respect...

other than coal-mining. They love their guns. Don't mess with their guns. This is one state where guns are always an issue.

[IsItJustMe]

45. No shit. I have relatives there, and every time I see them that's all they talk about. My uncle

talks about Revelation when it comes to taking away his gun. I tried to tell him once that nobody was trying to take away his gun and he went ballistic on me. Honestly, some of my relatives from Kentucky scare the hell out of me. I am talking about Western Kentucky. I could only imagine what it is like in Eastern Kentucky. An order of magnitude, I would reckon.

On edit. Southern Indiana is very similiar. Obama will loose in Southern Indiana.

[seaglass]

28. I was wondering why Indiana sticks out like a sore thumb.

They haven't voted for a Dem for president since 1964?!?

So in the scheme of things - Indiana is meaningless for Democrats.

[Jennicut]

30. Actually. Obama is currently beating McCain in one poll in Indiana

I think any state is up for grabs this year. We need to concentrate on all states. Even if we don't win there we can at least improve the amount by which we lose. The 50 state strategy works, just concentrating on swing states does not. As far as racism towards Obama it is in every state. However, he is not naive regarding this. If he becomes president, it is a huge step forward. The fact that he may be a nominee is huge. Racism will never go away. But it will get better. My grandparents were very racist and especially hated asians because of WWII. I am a white woman, aged 32 and have had all kinds of African-American, Asian, and Hispanic friends. Its up to the younger generations to end racism or lessen it. I went to a college filled with people with so many different backgrounds and I'm sure many my age and younger have as well.

[seaglass]

31. Evidence please. Your statements are not persuasive. n/t

[Aloha Spirit]

35. My pleasure! Here it is, April 20-23rd

http://www.wthr.com/global/Story.asp?s=8224749

[seaglass]

42. Bad poll,sorry.

"Selzer & Company conducted the poll of 500 Hoosiers statewide and 534 likely Democratic primary voters between April 20-23."

From the margin of error noted at the top it looks like there were 2 different polls - if so, they don't identify which reponses are from which poll. If it's only one poll (but there were 2 different margins of error in the sampling) then it is still useless because it's heavily weighted towards Democrats in a Republican state.

[Aloha Spirit]

47. No, I'm sorry. Sorry you don't understand how to read polls.

[seaglass]

50. I know you are but what am I? That's how ridiculous your response is.

I am open to you proving that the poll data you linked me to is valid, maybe I missed something - did you consider that?

[Aloha Spirit]

51. Ha.. fair enough. Well, the general election questions were put to the statewide voters, and the

primary questions were put to the likely (D) voters.
Here is the Indianapolis Star describing the results:
"Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election — a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled."

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080424/NEWS0502/80424082

Either way, I'm really excited about the level of support for Hillary and Barack in Indiana! IN hasn't gone to the Democrat in 44 years, like you mentioned.
:party:

[Jennicut]

63. Hey, lighten up. Its one poll for God sakes. Let it go.

I heard it on CNN this morning while I was playing with my 2 and 3 year olds. Sorry I didn't have time to track down the evidence to satisfy your needs. Oops, you don't even believe the evidence. Obama's home state borders Indiana, he has a good chance here.

[woolldog]

60. Another poll has him tied with Mccain in Indiana

not the indy star poll, but another one I can't remember.

[suziedemocrat]

66. Democrats FORFEIT Indiana - They simply don't show up.

They will NEVER win Indiana if they don't even try.

[Aloha Spirit]

33. "It's not racism, it's because they're Jacksonian" icky Barone article that sheds some light (not)

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/4/2/reviewing-the-primary-results-academics-versus-jacksonians.html

[Aloha Spirit]

39. OMG Barone on FOX right now, such a joke. Waste of oxygen.

[Zachstar]

36. If clinton tries to say those 2 states mean anything nationally she will be laughed at.

We already know damn well that those two states are likely going to be blowouts for Clinton due to issues Obama can't even mention. Point is tho that those states are going to be red Clinton or Obama in November.

The supers are not going to deny the nomination to Obama due to race. It wont happen period.

[goldcanyonaz]

37. The point is just as easily reveresed with the Southern states that Obama won.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[terrell9584]

71. West Virginia would vote for Clinton

For all intents and purposes its a one party state, and it even voted for Dukakis.

And in Kentucky the Republican brand in not in favor right now. Clinton would definitely win WV, and put KY into play. Then again, Edwards would win both handily.

[Orangepeel]

40. to quote Clinton: "screw 'em"

Obama's plan for winning pledged delegates factored in big losses in KY and WV, and our side isn't going to win those states in the general anyway. We can't keep pandering to people who aren't going to vote for us anyway.

[SoCalDem]

43. Obama never planned on winning them..

Until all the old farts who were young during sebregation, racism will be with us.. I have a sneaky feeling that the grandchildren of those old farts are not nearly as racist as they are..

and by the time they are gone, "pinkies" (white people are really pink..not white) will be in the minority anyway :)

[NJSecularist]

46. Hilary would win West Virginia in the general election.

Just another reason why she is more electable.

[ruggerson]

52. This is what's known as rationalizing a humiliating defeat in advance

n/t

[cali]

58. No. This is called facing facts. Did you miss the quotes, dear?

You know, the ones from the racists? It's disgusting hilldroid logic to whine incessently about sexism and totally deny flat out racism.

Oh, and the humiliating defeat belongs to queen Hill. She's done no matter what happens in KY and WV. And she's had far more humiliating defeats than Obama, now hasn't she? And look how poorly hillypoo behaved in the face of them.

Enjoy KY and WV, because you're going to be mourning over hilly's loss, while I celebrate it.

[ruggerson]

62. Puerile namecalling notwithstanding

there are parts of the country where there are going to be swaths of the electorate that vote for Clinton largely because she is the white candidate. Conversely, there are parts of the country where swaths of the electorate are going to vote for Obama because he is black (think Mississippi and South Carolina). I don't see you posting threads complaining about those parts of the country, however.

[kwenu]

53. Racism isn't Obama's problem. It's America's problem and the Democratic party's problem.

Obama's problem? Surely, you jest. If he loses, he goes back to the Senate. America and the Democratic Party gets a BLACK EYE that it will never get rid of. He'll be just fine.

[Bensthename]

55. Yipee another post on racism...

Obama needs to win for no other reason then to shut these people down from writing such articles.. If Obama wins, the glass ceiling will have been smashed into a million pieces.

I've also read articles on rePubes read to cross over just to vote for Obama and to make history.

[cali]

56. Do you even know who Packer is?

And kos wrote a very solid article, citing Packer. This isn't something that can or should be ignored. Denial is stupid.

[Bensthename]

59. He is the guru of racial data in Appalachia I gather..

That's nice.

[1776Forever]

65. Agree - it is too bad that the candidate that can help them the most is the one they won't vote for!

:shrug:

[kentuck]

67. Don't worry about it...most of them won't vote anyway.

They are either too zonked or too depressed.

[book_worm]

69. these are two states I wrote off for Obama a long time ago

they are like TN and OK two of the best states Hill had in this primary season.

[Barack_America]

70. It's not Obama's problem. It's WV's and KY's problem.

Economic survival.
Prejudice.

Pick one.

[BlooInBloo]

72. Everybody knows this. And it's irrelevant to racism-deniers.