Guam has a caucus this weekend. Any predictions on how that will go?

[RBInMaine]

[David Dunham]

1. Obama big time

[RBInMaine]

6. Why do you think Obama will win bigtime?

[saltpoint]

18. I was wondering the same thing. I don't have a prediction one way or

the other, but am curious about other people's insights on this one.

I wonder how many Guama mamas for Obama there are.

[John Q. Citizen]

2. 4 delegates split 2/2

[HooptieWagon]

19. Agreed

Neither candidate can win by a large enough margin to make a 3-1 split of delegates; therefore it's certain it will be 2-2.

[onenote]

3. Don't know, Don't much care.

While I have opposed the "that state doesn't count" argument (when used by HRC supporters and when used by Obama supporters), in this case I'll make an exception. The result in Guam will not impact the outcome of the nomination process.

[RBInMaine]

5. EVERY vote and voter counts. (And so WILL FL and MI in a FAIR way once the rest are over.)

[onenote]

9. so, you believe the outcome in Guam will sway SDs?

I disagree.

[tekisui]

4. One would have to get 63%+ to get the delegate count 3 to 1.

It will probably split 2-2, and not get much more than a mention.

[dbmk]

14. 8 ½-delegates

56,25% will get you a 1 delegate gain for a 2½-1½ win

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk

[book_worm]

7. Obama won Dem Abroad and Virgin Islands, I think he will take Guam too.

[jackson_dem]

8. Obama apparently has the edge there and is advertising on this Guam website

Obama's ad: http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080430/NEWS01/804300316/1002

-snip-

This weekend's caucus will be the only chance Democrats on Guam get to take part in the election process, as they cannot vote in November's elections.

Neither of the two Democratic contenders is expected to visit Guam ahead of the caucus, but observers say Barack Obama may have a slight edge over Senator Clinton.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/200804/s2230991.htm?tab=latest

Slight edge means 2-2 delegate split.

[phrigndumass]

10. Elvis Presley will come in second to Dennis Kucinich

http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s2i29027

}(

Let the pinochle tournament begin!

[Khaotic]

11. I used to live in Guam

And it's hard to say.

They're really fickle over there.

They loved Bill Clinton, but Bill really gave them hell as well.

They wasted a lot of our taxpayers money. It was found out that money that was supposed to go to education was spent privately. They don't pay federal taxes over there, but they receive our aid and benefit from our federal programs.

They want to have their cake and eat it too. While they don't want to pay federal taxes, they want a real representative from Guam in Congress.

Bill Clinton basically told them to get a grip and threatened to pull U.S. federal money from Guam if they didn't get their books straightened out.

Bill also raised hell over the shit that was going on up in Saipan in regard to sweat shops.

Now, while we think that's great, and we know Bill did the right thing. I don't know how the Charmaros feel.

It's a real love hate thing.

Also ... Guam supported Bush.

They're really nice people when you're attending one of their festivals. They can't give you enough food and drink.

But when it comes to politics and shit, they're assholes.

One of their island senators (before he was elected as one) climbed the fence at the Navy's headquarters on the island. He ran right for the building and forced a Marine to bring him down and retrain him. Mr. Santos looked directly at the Marine and spit in his face. I've seen the video, it is VERY upsetting.

After the incident aired on KUAM TV on island, Mr. Santos was rewarded by being elected to an island senate seat on their own little Congress.

To give you some insight into their Congress ... there was widely publicized incident about a disagreement they got into which broke out into a huge food fight. If I remember right, they were eating chili.

In my own opinion, the U.S. could do without Guam and should take our money from the Island. Let them become their own commonwealth and let them print their own money. I would really like to see how well they get along without their island being a U.S. territory.

My prediction? I think Guam will vote heavily in one direction or the other. It will probably be a 3-1 split for one candidate or the other. I don't know which.

While they remind a lot of Hawaii and like to use slurs like "howley" against U.S. mainlanders, that doesn't mean they'll vote toward Obama.

They're not racist ... it doesn't much matter what your skin color is. If from the U.S. mainland, you're a howley. It was so bad while I was there, that DoD pulled U.S. students from Guam schools and restarted DoD schools on island. U.S. students of military families couldn't perform at their schools without constant heckling, and their teachers would not stop it ... some say they laughed about it.

I'm jaded on the subject.

[Jersey Devil]

12. Seems to favor Obama - good article here

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/guam-update.html

We should know by Saturday morning. Though Guam caucuses on Saturday, Saturday there is Friday here, or something like that.

[dbmk]

13. One point;

There is 8 ½-delegates from Guam. The score could be 2½-1½ fx.

More here:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk

[saltpoint]

15. If Lee Mercer can't hack it in Guam, I think he should

get out of the race.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

16. Christ, another Mercerbot spamming the boards....

Get life, ya moran!

:hi:

Edit: (all three)

[saltpoint]

17. - - - -

:hi:

[rug]

20. Guam is about the only place caucuses make sense.