Here is how Senator Clinton will take the nomination

[dbmk]

ok, actually I am going to bed, But its my hope that some of the many here that say she will be the nominee, will demonstrate here, using numbers, how Hillary will win the nomination.

I am completely serious and very open to arguments. But I want to see it backed up with numbers, so its clear that its thought through and not just "because". Any assumptions should af course also be backed up by some outline of the speculation behind it.

Give it a shot guys/girls!

[A-Schwarzenegger]

1. Discover the 51st state named Clintonia that has 200 delegates.

:*

[MonkeyFunk]

2. She gets enough superdelegates to reach 2025

that is, coincidentally, the same way Obama would have to take the nomination.

[grantcart]

8. Yes but on May 20th Obama will have a majority of the pledged delegates and then

those who have promised to follow the candidate with the most pledged delegates will endorse him, including many currently classified as Clinton Super Delegates. How does she make up a 150 delegate shortfall + the new super delegates who endorse him + (Clinton super delegates who now endorse him x 2)?

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Ah yes....

But you fail to point out some serious issues with that. Obama will win the pledged delegate total by 130+ at least. I don't think you will even question that.

Hillary would then need an insane percentage of the remaining super delegates to win. At the rate the supers are declaring right now, that clearly won't happen.

The only way she can win is if the supers overturn the will of the people in a serious way, which likely won't happen. Hillary basically needs to bloody Obama beyond recognition for that to even happen and I doubt the supers will go to her after the campaign she has been running, especially if she does the unthinkable.

Add it all up and it's clear Hillary is running for 2012. She could care less about 2008. Sorry.

[Gore1FL]

10. But not by astronomical margins

[symbolman]

16. Nope

You and others just Wish it was that way, sorry..

[dbmk]

21. I do think you failed on a few of my requirements

Show me what numbers you see her need and how she will make that happen.

I want to see that the reality of the numbers is understood - and how she will make it from there.

This was a "because" answer.

[BenDavid]

3. After next Tuesday and if HRC wins NC and wins outright Indiana

you will see super d's begin to move to HRC.

If our choices are doing the right thing and losing with Obama because fair is fair OR doing the wrong thing and winning with Hillary, I am of the strong opinion super delegates should begin casting their lot with HRC.

[cliffordu]

5. I gotta disagree, she can't win NC...and Indiana might crack either way..

I think Indiana will be too close to give her any real net gain....

[CoffeeCat]

4. Win Puerto Rico by 100 percent...

...after convincing Puerto Ricans that she grew up in San Juan and that her
grandfather--who worked in the sugar cane fields--used to take her behind his
Atlantic beach house and teach her how to shoot guns and make salsa.

[cliffordu]

6. lol

[Orangepeel]

7. something like 70% of undecided superdelegates declare for her

or, she wins IN, NC and OR and a bunch of Obama's switch.

I don't believe that either will happen, but it IS theoretically possible because the superdelegates haven't actually voted yet (neither have the pledged delegates, but pledged delegates usually get to be pledged delegates because they are ferocious supporters of their candidate)

[bhikkhu]

11. The skies open, the heavens sing their praises to Hillary

Obama himself shivers in envious wonder, and the floodgates holding back the SD's burst asunder with a joyful sound.....

That's about as close to a math-based solution for a Hillary win as I can manage.

[barack the house]

12. Votes despite how things are now will transfer he has never mocked her supporters and...

most of all he is financially competitive. Although you may oppose him now always remember he will honor and respect your vote if folks are kind enough to go that way.

[Dogmudgeon]

13. Here's my "shot" --

Obama's polling falls.

Under stress, he makes one or two more major gaffes.

He loses Indiana but also loses North Carolina.

Polling goes into free-fall.

Several delegates who defected FROM Clinton defect BACK TO Clinton.

Michelle Obama loses her temper and says some rather impolitic things.

More primaries. More losses.

MSNBC breaks a story that Clinton engineered vote hacking. Clinton is now on the defensive. The story is shown to be bogus two days later, planted by persons unknown. Backlash.

Florida and Michigan become issues again, whether they count or not.

Obama pulls into the Convention with a delegate lead of about five, 1.3 million popular votes behind Hillary, and Howard Dean's colitis flares up.

(Well, I gave it a shot.)

--p!

[JackORoses]

15. and this is what you are fighting for?

[FrenchieCat]

17. That's what he is working toward........the downfall of the star in the Democratic party.....

Isn't that


















sick? :puke:

[Dogmudgeon]

18. Nope.

It's one scenario of how Obama could blow it.

Not "how Obama WILL blow it".

Not "it's inevitable".

Not "do the math."

But "It's one scenario of how Obama could blow it."

I've seen a dozen or more scenarios about how Hillary will, must, and is doomed to blow it, usually described with as much poison as the OPs can pack into them. I simply acknowlege that BHO could make a series of similar mistakes that have felled other candidates. Obama supporters appear to be unable to see any flaws in their candidate or any trouble caused by his own mistakes.

I would have preferred that the entire campaign be fought over issues.

--p!

[casus belli]

20. I'm a huge fan of fiction too. n/t

[BlueIdaho]

14. John McCain has a heart attack

An the republican party calls her home as their new candidate.

[SoCalDem]

19. When they arrive, the numbers from Neptune will be HUGH!! and put her over the top

:rofl:

[dbmk]

22. I need to kick this.

Noone has supplied the requested answer, and I would like to see it.

I want the numbers people. I want to see that the answer comes from someone that understands precisely what situation is. And then how she will make it happen from those numbers.

If you say "she will get enough SDs to make it happen" - show me that you know how many we are talking about.