04/30/08 Insider Advantage Poll - Hillary Takes the Lead in NC

[PBS Poll-435]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx

Hillary Clinton - 44%

Barack Obama - 42%

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[BlueIdaho]

1. Is this the third or fourth time this poll has been posted here?

I've lost track...

[NanceGreggs]

3. I believe this is ...

... post No. 2,417 - but I've lost count.

[jillan]

8. It's the first I've heard about it.

Some of us just got online for the first time today.

[NanceGreggs]

2. Is the theory that if enough of you post this ...

... over and over and over, it might actually be true?

Just wonderin' ... :shrug:

[BlueIdaho]

4. Its ok

I'm sure they will all be reposted two or three days from now too.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. Dear -

I enjoyed a lovely dinner and watched some TV with my SO.

The OP (or anything like it) was NOT on the Good Citizens list.

I am saddened that I missed out on the fireworks before!

[cliffordu]

12. I think they did that poll at a hillary phone bank. I mean

someone called her entire phone bank and wanted to know who they supported. That's why she just got over half...

[NanceGreggs]

42. Bill for new keyboard and monitor en route ...

... ya bastid!

:rofl:

[cliffordu]

56. Aw, Ok....

:rofl:


:patriot:

[rodeodance]

13. yeah, we learned it from obama fans who keep posting the same articles.

[NanceGreggs]

61. Well, simple rule of thumb ...

You can always tell when an Obama 'article' is current by the fact that the gap between his SD numbers and Hillary's is narrower than they were the day before.

[PBS Poll-435]

17. BREAKING NEWS. 2004 Democratic Nominee JOHN KERRY is ALMOST READY TO DECIDE

to endorse.

I will keep you posted!

[rodeodance]

49. tell him to hurry. Obama's waffles are getting cold.

[PBS Poll-435]

52. Sadly, they have regressed into pancakes. Nasty, Rigid Pancakes.

[jillan]

83. -----

:rofl: :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[jillan]

5. I'll join you!!

:woohoo: :woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[emilyg]

14. I'll join the party.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[NJSecularist]

18. Me too.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[PBS Poll-435]

21. Glad to see you!

:toast:

[mystieus]

6. lol, do you think she is going to take NC.. seriously??

[PBS Poll-435]

9. It is gonna be REAL close. I will tell you that.

[rodeodance]

15. and just think a few short days ago obama was +25.

[PBS Poll-435]

19. Well...Like I always say....Don't Count Your Chickens...

Before they come home to roost!.

[Aloha Spirit]

10. Oh right, the poll that has black folks at 25% ? Good luck next week! ;-)

Seriously though, congrats on your candidate keeping the race tight.

[PBS Poll-435]

11. That sounds "reasonable."

Do you have some inside baseball?

[kmsarvis]

40. 40% of registered democrats in NC are African- American

Not only did this poll only survey 25% African-American....it shows Obama getting only 64% African-American support. I believe AA turnout will be between 35-40% and he is likely to get between 80-90% support.

[PBS Poll-435]

46. Why?

[kmsarvis]

54. Because I live in NC and have followed many elections........

and I have an IQ higher than 80.

[PBS Poll-435]

59. You have been lied to. Blame the schools if you must, but I feel for you...

:cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry:

[kmsarvis]

68. As a Clinton supporter you should know all about............

being "lied to".

[PBS Poll-435]

70. Huh?

I will NOT run for President in 2008 ---

Barack Obama.

[kmsarvis]

71. Oh shit !!! No he didnt !!!!

Im glad you are here to tell me these things prodn2000. I now pledge my support to Mrs.Clinton.

[PBS Poll-435]

72. Sounds like A FREAKING LIE to me..

[kmsarvis]

73. I know !

I feel so betrayed!:cry:

[PBS Poll-435]

74. Obama Lies = WAHOO!

Clinton Lies = Stake-Buring

Color me shocked...

[kmsarvis]

77. What are you talking about ? You converted me !

Give yourself a much deserved pat on the back !!!

[PBS Poll-435]

79. I just hope that Obama's Health Care Plan will cover my broken elbow...

:rofl:

[kmsarvis]

86. Clinton's will !!! And don't worry ......If you cant afford it.......

your wages will be garnished.

[cliffordu]

60. LOL

:rofl:

[Aloha Spirit]

78. I concur with this assessment,--based on exit polls of other regional states so

far this primary, but I think the black vote will be closer to 50 % of the total vote.
The good news for our party--because of 100,000 new voters this year so far, including 65,000 new Democrats, we outnumber Reps by about 700000.

This week
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=33

Start of year
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=04-26-2008

article about voter registration
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/politics/story/411677.html

But back to lousy exit polls ... black voters as a percent of all voters in Democratic primaries 2008
AR 16
GA 51
LA 48
TN 29
AL 51
MS 48
SC 54
VA 29


These all reflect noticeable upswings in AA turnout.

[kmsarvis]

85. Do you know where you can find......

what percentage of registered democrats were AA in those states?

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

20. If she wins Indiana and keeps NC within 5%,

suddenly, after this Tuesday, things will look VERY different around here.

:bounce:

[PBS Poll-435]

22. Like a funeral for the living.

People will start talking in '4th person.'

[jillan]

23. Yep!

:)

[PBS Poll-435]

24. Thanks Pirhana!

Shalom!

[guyanakoolaid]

25. Yep. There'll be a lot more posts pointing out the math of Hillary's even wider delegate deficit

Come on. She needs to win like 70% to catch Obama, at least be realistic.

[PBS Poll-435]

28. Catch Obama for what?

A baseball card statistic?

These people aren't stupid, you know.

Electability is the ONLY metric.

[datopbanana]

33. Once democracy is thrown out the window...

the beneficiary can kiss his/her "electability" bye-bye.

It isn't going to happen.

[PBS Poll-435]

38. If Obama was the "presumptive nominee" than he would have far exceeded the delegate threshold.

What?

He Didn't?

REALLY?

:rofl:

[datopbanana]

41. He will exceed the PD threshold on or before May 20.

[PBS Poll-435]

44. Who or What is the PD threshold?

[datopbanana]

50. The PD threshold is

the pledged delegate threshold. That is, half +1 of all pledged delegates.

The delegates the VOTERS select.

[PBS Poll-435]

57. You mean voters that actually cast a ballot?

Really? This is the first I have seen of this.

I thought that some States had different and un-Democratic ways of selecting the victor.

[datopbanana]

63. I get it. Reality is unacceptable to you because it offers virtually no chance for your candidate.

I will not disturb you in your fantasy land as I can now see it is simply a way for you to cope with unfortunate circumstances.


In the meantime, please head to this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5746973&mesg_id=5746973

and apply.

I think you'd make a excellent candidate.

Good luck!

[PBS Poll-435]

64. I thought I was already on your LALALA list

[datopbanana]

66. Nope. You have to apply first!

Good luck!

[PBS Poll-435]

67. Touche!

:toast:

[datopbanana]

69. I'd advise you against feeling overconfident.

My list is very exclusive and only accepts the most deserving applicants.

So far, only 2 of 130 applicants have been accepted.

You will need to bring your A-game.

[Tellurian]

27. Will Dean be asking Obama to step out of the race?

now that we know he's unelectable?

[PBS Poll-435]

I hope so. And SOON.

Before he is embarrassed...

[guyanakoolaid]

53. Yeah, it's only been a couple weeks of this Wright attack, give it a couple more

:eyes:

Seriously, even though it may not be the case, you make it appear as if Clinton supporters simply lack simple logic when you call on the frontrunner with the large lead to drop out. It won't win you many (non sock-puppet) converts.

[Tellurian]

81. Obama's NC Lead has been cut in half just in the last few days..

Clinton is solid in Indiana. I think Obama is in for a Big surprise in NC.

[datopbanana]

29. I agree. If she doesn't win NC and IN big

then she definitely won't be able to catch up.


Hopefully she can win NC by at least 15 points.

and

IN by 20%.

[PBS Poll-435]

32. To catch up to what?

:shrug:

[datopbanana]

37. Really? Did you really just ask that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_democratic_primary

[PBS Poll-435]

39. ???

I don't understand your point.

The goal is 2025 and neither has reached that so somehow 1 candidate is the victor?

Not THIS Time.

[datopbanana]

47. You asked what she needed to catch up in

She needs to catch up in the 2008 democratic primary that is currently in process.

I did not say there was a victor.



On May 20th, a candidate will have the majority of pledged delegates. At which point, it will be impossible for the other candidate to catch up.

[PBS Poll-435]

51. Pledged Delegates?

From like Utah & Idaho?

Please tell more.

How does that matter.

[datopbanana]

55. Don't matter? Because they are small states?

Mark Penn? That you?

[LakeSamish706]

36. That would be a nice try there (person with my couch) but it ain't gonna happen....

She is dead in the water and not anything that you or any of your friends can do will change that... Best of luck with it though.

[Skip Intro]

43. I believe she'll win both.

Things are breaking away now. Five more days...

[PBS Poll-435]

48. They sure are!

This one is in the history books.

[mckeown1128]

58. Except if Hillary doesn't get 27%+ margins of victory...

she won't ever be able to catch up with Obama... so keep bragging abou these last primaries being tied up... because that means your candidate loses.

[PBS Poll-435]

65. Catch up to what? Idaho?

:rofl:

[mckeown1128]

88. The nomination...

so uhh.. laugh it up while you can. I will be the one laughing in month.

[ShortnFiery]

26. PISS POOR - Dishonest Journalism: It's well within the MOE (3.8%) = Statistical Tie not HRC lead.

Damn I despise DISHONEST JOURNALISM

[PBS Poll-435]

34. TAKE MY PRESS PASS AWAY!

???

:rofl::rofl:

[Aloha Spirit]

80. Haha, I'm going to start posting "corrections" the day after I say stupid/untrue stuff in the web.

[SoCalDem]

30. OMG.. she's ahead of him 62-31 in a poll taken this afternoon

on Neptune:)

[PBS Poll-435]

35. :-)

Keep that dream alive.


:rofl:

[LakeSamish706]

31. F'wads come and F'wads go and then we get Polls, polls and more polls...

Never any end to em... Oh well, we will soon be at an end in this nomination process... (Whew) That was hard work indeed...

[Blue_Roses]

45. You do know that MattTowery is a republican who used to work for

Newt Gingrich don't you? His polling is biased and unreliable.

[adoraz]

62. BS poll

25% of voters are black in the poll. minimum will be 33%.

he only got something like 62-64% of the black vote. That has never happened, in PA he ended up getting 92%. There is no reason to think the black vote will be split like that when he has gotten at least 75% in every state.

[anonymous171]

75. Early voting, remember? That's what happened in TX with Zogby

[PBS Poll-435]

76. HuH?

Early voting OVERWHELMINGLY Favored "Our Chosen One."

When the votes were actually counted?

"Our Chosen One" Retreated to the Alamo.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

82. I think she might win NC, but this poll only sampled 571 people.

Which isn't really a great sample.

[Butch350]

84. Couple of Days from Now...

it will be Barack. Get ready to cry!

boohoo, boohoo, boohoo, boohoo

[Robbins]

87. Poll

Any poll that has Obama only In the 60 percent range with Blacks should not be trusted.That Is like
Hillary with a smaller lead among women.Not going to happen.You have several others with him
In the lead In NC.This poll Is like the one with him In the lead In PA.