New poll shock...Hillary ahead in NC!

[YEM]

Keep an eye on North Carolina
posted at 7:50 am on May 1, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Ready for another make-or-break primary day on May 6th? This time, though, it could be Barack Obama sweating out the results. The new Insider Advantage poll shows Obama losing a double-digit lead over two weeks to fall slightly behind Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, just as the Jeremiah Wright scandal peaked. If Obama cannot hold North Carolina, it will likely have superdelegates questioning whether the damage has gone too deep for recovery:

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

Obama led the poll on April 14, 51-36. The dramatic decline in support could come from a number of sources, including a terrible debate performance on April 16 or the April 22 defeat in Pennsylvania, which may have rattled some North Carolina voters. However, the likeliest explanation is Jeremiah Wright, and that might not have finished reverberating in either NC or Indiana.

The biggest movement, according to pollster Matt Towery, comes from white voters over 45, but that’s hardly Obama’s only problem. He only commands majorities among 18-29 and 30-44 age groups, the former of which has a habit of not showing up at the voting booth. He doesn’t poll above 36% in the remaining age groups, which have heavily comprised Democratic turnout of late.

His normal support among African-American voters appears to have eroded as well. Obama only captures 64% of it in this poll of likely voters, while Hillary gets 20%. That’s a lot better than her 92-8 drubbing among black voters in Pennsylvania, and it indicates that Obama has lost ground in his base. If he loses 20% of the black vote in North Carolina, his candidacy will be seriously imperiled.

The key will be to see how Obama’s repudiation of Wright plays in the state. Will it win him some white, working-class voters whom Wright had offended with his remarks? Or was that damage already done, and will the repudiation cause a deflation in the enthusiasm generated by African-American voters?

A loss in North Carolina will give Hillary an opportunity to run the table straight through to the convention, with perhaps only Oregon lining up against her. It will also underscore her argument that Obama peaked too early and has lost momentum and support, and that superdelegates should go with the hot hand. Hillary could even make an argument that a decent showing among black voters in North Carolina could indicate that their critical bloc will not bolt the Democratic Party if Obama loses the nomination at the convention.




http://hotair.com/archives/2008/05/01/keep-an-eye-on-north-carolina/

[YEM]

1. If he loses NC, it's over for him.

[mattclearing]

5. Kicking your own thread before anyone's had a chance to respond?

Some patience is in order.

[tekisui]

6. No. Hillary is the one facing must wins. She must win IN, or it's over.

Obama just has to not be arrested.

[sellitman]

8. Show us your math.

We are waiting....

[cali]

12. I don't think it's over for him, but it would certainly be a big blow

to his possibilities. Here's a weird one: What if Hillary pulls it out by a couple of points in NC and Obama pulls it out in IN by the same kind of margin? What does such a result portend?

[kevinbgoode]

13. Don't you think he should have to lose...like...11 in a row?

I mean..really...fair is fair.

[aquarius dawning]

21. Don't you think he should have to win NC by double digits for it to be a win?

I mean..really...fair is fair.

[kevinbgoode]

24. He'll still be ahead. . .

but don't let those little facts interfere with the Right-assisted fantasies.

[Arkansas Granny]

66. He may still be ahead, but if he loses NC it could indicate a downward trend in his support.

That might be an important factor for consideration by the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.

[cliffordu]

98. Yeah like maybe the five that committed today will have buyer's remorse...

:eyes:

[tekisui]

27. As long as he can round up like Hillary.

[NorthCarolina]

40. Maybe he'll win NC by 9.2%

.....would that be double digits?

[aquarius dawning]

62. We won't make as big deal about it as you all have if he does.

[NorthCarolina]

68. You have to admit, it would be an interesting coincidence though

and the subsequent posts on DU would no doubt be very entertaining :popcorn:

[aquarius dawning]

72. I will admit that much

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Expect Obama To Win NC. That Poll Seems Like An Outlier

I expect Obama to get the nomination but if he did lose NC which I believe is very unlikely the Super Delegates would have the mother of all heart burns...

Obama will be the nominee, for better or worse...

[bowens43]

22. Why would you think that?

[The Doctor.]

53. Keep stirring... I'm cataloguing these threads now for entertainment

purposes.

[Tellurian]

69. As I said before, Obama peaked long ago..

It's been all down hill for Obama. The more you know about Obama, the less you like him.

[Stuckinthebush]

76. Nope

He will still be ahead.

[mattclearing]

2. 571 voters???

That's a pretty weak sample size.

[Independent-Voter]

41. The sample size is fine. How they pulled that sample is the important thing.

Stats 101

[mattclearing]

43. That would have been my second question

What's the demographic and locale info?

[Captain Hilts]

42. Not for a state survey, it's typical to use 1100 for a national survey. nt

[Vinca]

3. The fact is, Obama could lose every single race that is left

and still be ahead. He won't, of course, but he could. It would be surprising for him to lose North Carolina, but after the latest guilt-by-association-fest, nothing would surprise me.

[cali]

17. He's faced negative push polling in NC and the RNC running racist

ads against him. That certainly effects the race there.

[kevinbgoode]

20. Exactly. . .between the Right's campaign against him

and the media's circus of talking about everything BUT the issues facing this country, anything is possible. And the lesson which needs to be learned is that the media MUST be reformed. It is obvious the American people have absolutely no say in what is fed onto our airwaves.

[janetblond]

4. Not "shocking" at all ..

Hillary went super-negative ....
As Karl Rove knows, super-negative works everytime because ...
u.s. voters are super stoopid.
the voters who voted for bush twice, will vote for hillary.
come on little lemmings, drink the kool-aid.
ROFLMAO!!

[YEM]

How can you deny that if he loses NC, it's huge?

[tekisui]

11. 1-He;s not gonna lose NC.

This is a small sample poll.

2-IF he did, he still will hold the Delegate lead, Pop. vote lead, fundraising lead, states won, etc.

It would cause the Superdelegates to slow down, but they would continue to drip. I

If Hillary loses IN, and NC(she will lose NC), the Superdelegates will flood to Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. I Suspect That Poll Is An Outlier

However if he lost NC which I don't believe is likely the Supers will sit on their hands and this baby is going to be resolved in Denver...

Tell me the percentages of whites and African Americans who will be voting and I'll wager a guess as to the winner...

If African Americans comprise 35% of the electorate there is no way HRC can win ...Obama would start with 32% of the vote...That would mean he would only need about twenty eight percent of the non African American vote to win...

[tekisui]

56. I have heard that the AA vote in NC could be as high as 40%.

NC has gotten motivated for the first time in a very long time.

BTW, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4901141#4901408

Name your charity, my friend. I owe it $20.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

61. It's OK

Do with your $20.00 whatever makes you happy... You can even donate it to Obama...

Well, if the electorate is 40% African American he will start with 36% of the vote... 40% X 90% =36%... That means HRC would have to get 77% of the non African American vote to win... That doesn't seem likely..

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. Pretty lame poll, sampling only 571 voters.

The MOE must be pretty huge with a sample that small. I wouldn't give that poll much credence at all.

[aquarius dawning]

23. pretty typical actually

[leftofcool]

9. Hillary is likely to take NC

[tekisui]

Doubtful.

[ErinBerin84]

18. Do you really think so?

I could take the "could" win (even though I strongly disagree with that), but "likely" to win?

[leftofcool]

28. NC is our home state

even though we have to be registered where we currently live. Our ties are strong there are we are hearing that she is likely to take the state from many friends, and some are Obama supporters. I think it will be a toss up.

[ErinBerin84]

32. hmmm, interesting.

[Texas Hill Country]

89. agreed, i have family in Charlotte and they say its gonna be close, real close too.

[Iceburg]

38. As a Hillary supporter, I think a better gauge of momentum is FOX

they are begrudgingly fawning all over her this morning saying that she not only survived the toughest interviwer on network TV but that she performed rather well and no doubt "picked up a few Reagan Democrats".

[leftofcool]

52. I love it when they fawn over her and hate having to do so

[janetblond]

77. What's a "Reagan Democrat".

Is that like a Jewish Nazi?

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

10. :Sigh:

Another day, another link to a right-wing blog.

[YEM]

15. The SAME poll had him up big 3 weeks ago. You didn't complain then.

The fact is, Obama is fucking up and people are listening.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

25. I'm not complaining about your poll.

I'm complaining about the commentary, which is from a right-wing blog. And I think you'll find that I never trumpet or dispute polls for either candidate, because as far as I'm concerned, they're rubbish.

The fact is, Obama is fucking up and people are listening.

Then it should be easy to find a source for commentary that ISN'T A RIGHT-WING BLOG. I'm sick to death of BOTH sides posting this shit to back up their points.

[onenote]

60. and the prior version of the poll had him getting 80+% of the AA vote. Now its only 64%

The idea that Obama has lost 20 percent of his AA support in NC in the past two weeks is, to say the least, not credible.

[Freedom Train]

37. Is it true what YEM says, yibbehobba?

Are you a - gasp - hypocrite??

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

48. I don't complain about polls.

I'm not complaining about the poll. I'm complaining about his linking to commentary about it from a right-wing blog.

Just like I complained about this shithat posting crap against Hillary from wingnut sites:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4927192#4927319

And this one:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5331610#5333042

I call bullshit when I see it. So STFU.

[aquarius dawning]

14. I did not forsee this. I was hoping that we could simply hold him NC and destroy him in later races

this is very encouraging. Still, NC is 22% African American which would seem to favor Barack Obama in a Democratic primary. We will have to see.

[book_worm]

19. this is the outliar poll of this primary (like the poll from PA that had Obama up by 3)

Obama will do better than this poll indicates with black voters 64-20??? He will get 85-90% of the black vote and I believe they under polled black voters as well.

[livingmadness]

26. I see your poll

and raise you two!!

Mason Dixon NC: Obama 49 Clinton 42
RCP Average: Obama 48.3 Clinton 41.0

But regardless - the only poll that counts is happening next Tuesday ... see you then!

[barack the house]

29. So young voters and loyal base will be disregarded. I doubt it.

Whatever occurs there is a transferance of votes. It all counts for nothing at this stage.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. rut roh

[qazplm]

31. 64% African American support for Obama?

20% for Clinton?

Only 20% turnout for AAs?

Yeah, hardly likely.

Of course Clinton will lead if you underestimate black support for Obama by 20 percentage points and black turnout by almost 100%

[livingmadness]

36. They probably took account the black votes

www have been working hard to disenfranchise. Ugh!

[MannyGoldstein]

33. Clinton's Got An Easy Skate To The Nomination Now

Other than having the most delegates, popular vote, and states, Obama is toast.

:sarcasm:

P.S.: She and you are doing zero besides pissing people off and helping the Republicans. How marvelous.

[NC_Nurse]

34. I don't know about this poll, but I do know about his support here on the

ground. He is gonna tear it up around here. There is NO way Hillary will take this part of the state.
There are Obama signs everywhere, I haven't seen ONE Hillary sign. Our field office is overflowing with people
volunteering to canvass, phone bank, etc.
I have a hard time seeing Hillary win here. Just my observations....

[Independent-Voter]

44. I'm seeing the same in the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area. Where are you from?

[tledford]

87. Same in Greensboro

But sadly, it is the white rural voters (and you know there is a boatload of them) that are reacting to the Rev. Wright. I actually think that many rural whites were considering Obama as a possibility (the ones that would vote for ANY Democrat, that is) until last weekend, and this is at least partially responsible for the decrease in Obama's lead.

As always in NC, the metro areas are islands of blue in a sea of purple.

[democrattotheend]

50. Which part of the state is that?

And does he have a lot of support from white voters too? He seemed to have at least some in the Raleigh area when I was there last weekend, but that was before the whole Wright flare up.

[melody]

35. Hotair is right

Look at the domain name -- 571 voters is a ludicrous sampling. All you have to do is pattern sample to tilt the results any way you want them. That's a clear case of a managed poll.

[JimGinPA]

39. In A Related Story...

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
Rasmussen 4/28/08 774 LV 37 51 12
SurveyUSA 4/26-28/08 727 LV 44 49 3
ARG 4/26-27/08 600 LV 42 52 4
PPP (D) 4/26-27/08 1121 LV 39 51 10
SurveyUSA 4/19-21/08 734 LV 41 50 5
PPP (D) 4/19-20/08 962 LV 32 57 11
ARG 4/14-15/08 600 LV 41 52 5
InsiderAdvantage 4/14/08 541 LV 36 51 13
Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 691 LV 34 47 17
PPP (D) 4/12-13/08 538 LV 34 54 13
Civitas Institute/Tel
Opinion Research (R4/9-10/08 RV 27 45 28
SurveyUSA 4/5-7/08 725 LV 39 49 5
PPP (D) 4/5-6/08 928 LV 33 54 13
Rasmussen 4/3/08 704 LV 33 56 11

[NorthCarolina]

47. I think you just totally rained on the OP's parade n/t

eom

[EnviroBat]

58. You completely farted in the OP's dinner.

I think that's great!

[Freedom Train]

45. Good news for those who want to win in November

And 20% AA support in NC against Obama is impressive. It makes it even clearer he's tanking across the board.

[EnviroBat]

59. Freedom Tool, meet ignore.

Usually reserved for those who post completely stupid shit here on DU. Get used to it!

[Freedom Train]

78. Only "tools" make use of the ignore feature

And only STUPID tools go on to brag publicly about it. That you would find it worthy to ignore me based on that comment is laughable, but I'm glad that was the first AND last time you ever replied to me, because I'd rather not have your kind follow me around.

What's funny is, I just called you stupid, and you won't even know it. Buh-bye!!

[MediaBabe]

94. Even the most tepid remark get an ignore

if it's not insanely supportive of Obama. I wonder how some of these folks deal with real life.

[EnviroBat]

83. Aw no...

Freedom Tool called me stupid. Now that really hurts. I'm sure it's hard for him to go through life as such a complete douche.

[Freedom Train]

97. Most stupid of all...

...is proclaiming to ignore someone, and then not actually follow through on it.

Or actually, that's more pathetic than stupid. Tsk tsk...

[Triana]

46. hotair.com - how appropriate. n/t

[livingmadness]

51. It gets worse - this poll was conducted for Sean Hannity.

According to DKos, they oversampled whites to push the "WRIGHT HURTZ OBAMA" narrative. Its a crap poll.

[chapel hill dem]

49. They do not call folks with cell phones as their only phone link and

most of the colleges in NC are entering the exam period next week. For those students that want to vote for Obama, they must go to their place of registration, which usually is their hometown due to the Motor Voter Registration laws. Will they drive home to vote? Or have they already obtained an absentee ballot? My son, a college student, says that most of his Obama-supporting friends are not voting because "he has a huge lead" and they can't break away from exams and projects-in-lieu-of-exams to go home and vote. Also, the high gas cost is another deterrent.

Net-net: I think Obama will will, but by a single digit margin and not the 23% margin of a few weeks ago.

IMHO

[moose65]

57. But Obama has a great on-the-ground team

Here in my neck of the woods, Obama has TWO campaign offices. One of them is dedicated solely to Appalachian State University and its 14,000 students. They've been pushing early voting and other issues on the campuses. If they have that much interest here in my tiny town, I can only imagine what they're doing in the larger cities. Bill Clinton was here the other day and spoke to 3,000 people while Obama was 50 miles away speaking to a group. I don't remember candidates ever caring about NC before!

[chapel hill dem]

67. True, HRC was at NC State on Tuesday and Obama was at UNC-CH on Monday.

But, even early voting requires many of the college students to return home to vote. There is also a LOT of complacency that Obama has too great a lead for HRC to overcome, so "my vote isn't needed and I am too busy with exams".

Just reporting what my son's friends are saying...

My bet is Obama by 5-7 points.

[democrattotheend]

90. Do students know they can register/change address when they early vote?

Students can early vote through Saturday and register or change their address at that time. They don't need to go home to vote. Make sure people know that, and tell them Hillary is gaining and we need their votes!

[chapel hill dem]

92. I will forward your message to my son. Thanks! n/t

[democrattotheend]

93. Tell him and his friends to call 1-888-NC-EARLY (1-888-623-2759) for early voting location & times

Saturday is the last day to early vote. People who are not registered can register when they early vote but can't register on election day, so if they are not registered they have to vote by Saturday.

[MediaBabe]

95. Voting is our most important responsibility as citizens

It's too bad that college students are finding so many reasons not to vote.

[nyccitizen]

55. This poll: Hillary leads among Hillary supporters...

This poll's sampling had 25% AA voters supporting Obama at 64%. And look at the oversampling of older voters.

AA voters constitute 40% of Democratic voters in NC and Obama's support is at least 20% higher than 64%. It's not this poll's sample size that's the problem, it's the demographics, which wildly overpoll Hillary's bases of support and underpoll Obama's.

[rox63]

63. This poll is an outlier

Most polls show Obama still leading in NC, although the gap has been narrowing. He is still expected to win the state by a healthy margin. And don't forget, a lot of people have already had their say through early voting.

[Mass]

64. So, one poll out of many shows Hillary ahead! Stop everything. She will win ....

Or it is another of these faulty polls as we have seen so many throughout the campaign!!!

[Usrename]

65. Obama's support in NC is trending up.

[Evergreen Emerald]

70. Go Clinton!

[IDemo]

71. The Real Clear Politics average for NC is Obama +7.3, including Insider Advantage

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

[saltpoint]

73. The riverboat gambler in me says to put a large sum on Obama for

the North Carolina primary.

[dionysus]

74. propaganda FAIL

[Blue_Roses]

75. good grief, this poll has been discussed

ad nauseam

[hayu_lol]

80. It is still a tie and tossup...

Obama, for all the wonderworks he is credited with, cannot pull safely ahead of Clinton.

Says wonders about St Obama.

This mess is going to the convention.

Still being pondered: Michigan and Florida voters and Texas(still in play)will not finalize their 'two-step' mess until June 7th.

Its the convention that will decide.

[casus belli]

85. And on the other side of that coin...

despite setbacks of astronomical proportions to Obama's candidacy, Hillary can't close the gap. What does that say exactly bout yer girl?

This will not go to the convention. Mark my words.

[rg302200]

79. Way to cherry pick polls

and ignore every other one that has Obama winning. Hell I could get a sample together here in Ohio that shows Obama could have won Ohio too only problem is I am stuck in rethug land where they all love Hillary!

[SeaLyons]

81. Go Hillary!!

[1776Forever]

82. LOL - Yeah right! Take a look at this from RealClearPolitics Obama +7.2

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Tuesday, May 6 | Delegates at Stake: 134

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/26 - 04/29 -- 48.4 41.2 Obama +7.2

Mason-Dixon 04/28 - 04/29 400 LV 49 42 Obama +7.0
Insider Advantage 04/29 - 04/29 571 LV 42 Clinton +2.0
SurveyUSA 04/26 - 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 04/28 - 04/28 774 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0
PPP (D) 04/26 - 04/27 1121 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0

[jsamuel]

88. considering it was +20 a week or two ago...

[Turn CO Blue]

84. Um, no. The trend of ALL polls speaks for itself:

Sen. Clinton will get about 40% of the vote and Sen. Obama will get more than 52%

You know, over the summer my daughter tours the entire country with a Drum & Bugle Corps. And the thing that the members hate the MOST is when they have to march on ASTROTURF.

[jsamuel]

91. It depends where you start the trend or how sensitive it is.

That trend is one long trend with no bends. That also does not include this poll.

[bobbert]

86. hotair.com? the site name speaks for itself

[ProSense]

96. Wingnut sites are all they have left. n/t

[Writer]

99. And if Barack Obama DOES happen to win North Carolina...

I say we Clinton supporters should wait until 99.87% of the votes are in so we can make sure that win is by only 7.266534623476%, not 7.83246453246%.

Petulantly yours,

~Writer~