Insider Advantage poll: Clinton +2 in NC.

[hell-bent]

Could this be the end for Obama? :nopity: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[democrattotheend]

1. Posted twice already.

[NJSecularist]

2. K&R. Obama is falling apart at the seams. He is unelectable. n/t

[cliffordu]

4. And the SD's are abandoning him in DROVES!!!

:sarcasm:

[durrrty libby]

3. "Could this be the end for Obama?" Let us "Hope" so

[JoFerret]

32. Probably not

He will drag it out.

[LakeSamish706]

5. You morons are Delusional! n/t

[mythyc]

8. Its speled "morans"

:eyes:

[LakeSamish706]

9. No its not! n/t

[LakeSamish706]

10. Good way to spell spelled as well by the way. n/t

[mythyc]

16. sometimes you gotta learn the local lingo and color

Its also spelled it's.

(lighten up; we're on the right side)

and how could you have been here longer than me and never have seen this? :



do a DU search of "moran". kind of a tradition around here ...

[LakeSamish706]

19. I have enough problems with spelling, so decided to spell it the way that...

is correct.

[mythyc]

20. sometimes perfection can be found in error

[rocktivity]

6. That's only one poll's opinion--and the one with the next smallest sample size, at that.

Didn't you notice that he's still up by at an average of 9 points in the other RCP NC polls?

:shrug:
rocknation

[cliffordu]

7. So how would even THAT translate to delegates??

does it do her any good??

Didn't think so.

:nopity:

[northzax]

12. to delegates? not much

to the reality on the ground? a lot. He needs to win NC. Indiana is meaningless to him if he loses (if he wins it's great) but if he loses NC, after carrying a 20 point lead before the Penn Primaries, he's going to start losing SD. sorry, but that's just the way it is. If he starts losing states he's supposed to win big, despite having 5 times as much money? you will start to see major momentum swings. Remember, he doesn't have the pledged delegates to win. and still won'y, after that.

can you imagine the introduction in Denver? "And now, ladies and gentlemen, the loser of the last ten straight primaries, your nominee, Barack OooooBaaaamaaa!" that will not go over well. He needs to go all in in NC and hold his lead.

[rocktivity]

15. Unless Hillary wins those ten in row with at least 68% of the vote

She won't be able to match Obama's numbers. Besides, she survived blowing a 20-point lead--why can't Obama?

:headbang:
rocknation

[northzax]

23. as I said, if he wins

she survived blowing her twenty point lead because she actually won by 9 points. If he wins by nine, he's fine. If he blows a 20 point lead in two weeks (two weeks that he's taken a public beating) and loses a state that was solid, he's in trouble.

remember, pledged delegates aren't enough to win, and the so-called 'committed SDs' will change if they feel the need, they aren't actually committed formally.

[MonkeyFunk]

33. once again....

Both Obama and Clinton will only get to the finish line with the help of superdelegates. There's no requirement that the superdelegates vote for the person with the most pledged delegates.

If Clinton can make the case that she's the better candidate to defeat McCain, she'll win the nomination.

[rocktivity]

34. How can she make such a case with a supedelegate lead

that has dropped from nearly 100 into the teens? If Obama wins one contest and gets at least 40% of the vote in the other on Tuesday, don't be surprised if the trickle of SDs that have come out for him turns into a stream.



:headbang:
rocknation

[Barack_America]

11. Only 64% African American support for Obama?

Um, no.

[LVjinx]

26. They don't have to support Obama just because they're black, you know.

[thewiseguy]

28. And the whites dont have to vote for Hillary because she is white.

Which some do!

[jonestonesusa]

13. It certainly isn't the end for Obama

since he's still ahead in pledged delegates, the popular vote, and states. The race-baiting MSM and the scorched earth campaign by HC has closed some of the margin BO once had while putting at risk the Democrat's chances in November, but the Clinton crew is all about Pyhrric victories. And this scorched earth strategy has had nothing to do with real issues and everything to do with media tempests in a teapot, alienating black and progressive voters, and demonizing the candidate that has gained a record number of small donors and significant excitement in the Democratic base. HC supporters will inevitably cheer this on - since that's the political tactics they all prefer, apparently. But Obama has built a strong base of support, and I have found much to admire in his campaign; I sure can't say the same for Clinton.

The final judges will be the voters. Go Obama!

[tokenlib]

14. This is simply the Wright fallout..a blip...

...Obama will be up again real soon. And just in time for Tuesday.

[shayes51]

17. It's either the end or the beginning of the end.

[ShortnFiery]

18. With a 3.8 MOE, it's intellectually DISHONEST to NOT call this a *Statistical TIE.*

But when have we known The Clintons and some of their surrogates to honor "the truth?" :thumbsdown:

[PseudoIntellect]

27. Well, you know, this is to be expected. Some people think -139 in delegates is a "dead heat."

That's what they were saying on CNN today.

[Bigleaf]

21. The Mason-Dixon NC Poll on that linked page has Obama up by 7 points. Thanks!

[onenote]

22. to say that this poll has serious methodological flaws would be an understatement

Two weeks ago, this same poll found that Obama would get over 80 percent of the AA vote and only estimated that 24.9 percent of the vote would be AA. Both of those estimates were conservative (since reportedly upwards of 40 percent of the Democratic vote in NC is AA). The new version is even more out of whack.

The new version continues to assume only 25 percent of the Democratic primary electorate will be AA and also finds Obama's support among the AA voters has dropped to 64%. The polls findings simply are not credible.

By the way, an analysis of Insider Advantage's polling found that they have been wrong in every poll thus far regarding Barack Obama's support, underestimating his support by an average of 13.4 points and overestimating Clinton's support by an average of 3.4 points.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/insider-advantage-primary-grade-022808004.html

So dream on.

[redqueen]

24. Heh.

Thanks.

[Adelante]

25. Clinton camp has doubts about that poll, too

According to Ambinder:

On That Insider Advantage Poll In NC...

01 May 2008 09:45 am

Showing Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead? The Obama campaign is very skeptical, but, for what it's worth, so is the Clinton campaign. Mason-Dixon's latest numbers -- Obama has a seven point lead -- are seen as more of an accurate snapshot of where that race is.

AN OBVIOUS question about the Insider Advantage numbers is that Obama receives only 65% of the black vote in the sample; also, blacks tend to make up about 40% of the SC electorate - they're 37% of the early voters -- and yet they're 25% of the electorate in the IA poll.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/on_that_insider_advantage_poll.php

[laugle]

29. RW radio is having a

field day, laughing and saying that the SD's are trying to figure out how to unload him! Might be true--might not............one things for sure he is in freefall.....

I think the collective, questionable associations are starting to get to many people. Also, his negatives are way up, as much as 50%, and he's the new guy..............

[anigbrowl]

30. So how come he keeps getting new SD endorsements? Stole from from Hillary today

If that's unloading him, I say keep it up.

[ruby slippers]

31. but 14 percent are undecided in this poll.....